Your 2018 Baltimore Orioles Preview - Starting Pitching
This is part 1 of my 2018 Orioles preview. Tomorrow I will be going over the bullpen, and Wednesday will be the position players.
I’m starting my preview with the group that everyone has their eyes on, starting pitching. It’s been no secret the past few years that the starters are the weak spot of this club, and it continues into 2018. The 2017 season was a disaster on the bump for the Orioles, no other way around it. Oriole fans will forever get irrationally angry when they hear the names Wade Miley and Ubaldo Jimenez. The front office finally opened the checkbook and spent some dough to improve the rotation. This group won’t be as bad as 2017, I think it’s safe to say that.
The rotation as a whole put up a disgusting 5.70 ERA, good for worst in the league and worst in franchise history. They had the third fewest innings pitched from their starters (846 IP), gave up the 7th most hits (936), the most runs (557) and earned runs in the league (536), second most homers (165), fourth most walks (352), 20th in Ks (728), teams hit .280 off the starters, and they finished dead last in WHIP as a group, 1.52. It is quite possible it was one of the worst rotations in MLB history.
Gone are Jeremy Hellickson, Jimenez, and Miley. Chris Tillman, who was injured to begin last season season is back on a cheap 1 year deal and will look to rebound from his terrible 2017 season. The Orioles are anchored by familiar names, Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. The Birds also went out and added two new, bearded starters, Andrew Cashner and Alex Cobb. Those signings actually make the rotation resemble a decent starting 5. Not great by any means, but there is no chance they can be as bad as Miley and Jimenez from last year. Lets hop into this starting 5.
The O’s best pitcher last year (tallest midget) was clearly Dylan Bundy. He’s fully healthy and rebounded from his various injuries that had Oriole fans wondering if we’d ever see him. All things considered, Bundy is a damn good pitcher. 2017 was his first full season starting and there were periods of time where he was absolutely lights out. His 1 hit shutout of the Mariners immediately jumps to mind from last season as one of the most dominating performances from an Os pitcher that I have seen in a long time. The 2017 season was big for Bundy mainly because he stayed healthy, but it also showed he has the stuff to be a front of the line starter for this team. He finished 2017 with a 13-9 record with a 4.24 ERA and 1.196 WHIP. It seemed as if he was getting tired in the second half, which is to be expected from a guy who had never thrown more than 109 innings in the majors, but he posted a lower ERA in the second half (4.09) than he did in the first half (4.33).
I’m looking for a big 2018 from Dylan Bundy, as is the rest of Baltimore. I believe he can improve on his pretty good 2017 and show us that he is the guy we think he can be. He was an absolute stud early on last year, and I think that was huge mentally for him, he knows he can pitch against these AL East teams, and isn’t afraid to go after these guys. I’m pretty excited to see where Bundy takes his game in 2018.
For as long as he’s been in Baltimore, Kevin Gausman has been known as the guy who can only put it together for half a season. Last year, he was the guy in the second half, after a lousy first half. He earned the Opening Day start due to Chris Tillman’s injury, and everyone thought that would be a confidence booster for the tall righty, it didn’t really work. Gausman ended 2017 with a losing record of 11-12 in 34 starts, posted a 4.68 ERA, and a 1.495 WHIP. It’s wild to think this is Gausman’s 6th year in the bigs and he still hasn’t been able to put it together. Every year you hear it on the radio and TV, “This is the year Kevin Gausman takes that step forward.” It hasn’t happened yet, we’ve seen flashes, but nothing close to a full season of success from Kevin.
You look at last season’s splits and it drives you crazy. He obviously has the talent to pitch and pitch well in the league, but he can’t put it all together. He’s been healthy, so it’s not an injury holding him back, so who knows what it is. I fully expect Kevin to start 35+ games this season, and maybe, just maybe he will show us what got him drafted so high and we can stop playing this guessing game with him.
The last of the familiar faces from the starters is Chris Tillman. The Orioles brought Tillman back on a 1 year “prove it” deal after his disaster of a 2017 season. He was CRUISING to 20 wins in 2016 before a shoulder injury in August sidelined him. He really hasn’t been the same since. 2017 started with Tillman getting a win in his first appearance on May 7th and he never won again. Not only did he not win, he posted an ERA that was almost 8! He was so bad that he was eventually moved into the bullpen and used as a mop up guy. It got ugly.
It was clear he wasn’t healthy last year, and I think the O’s were smart with him this offseason. I don’t think they would have brought him back of they didn’t know he was back to normal. He’s had a bumpy Spring Training, but again, I don’t think the O’s bring him back if they had concerns about his shoulder. Shoulder injuries are scary though, I’m not a doctor, but I feel like pitchers are never the same after they got something going on in there. He set career worsts in H/9, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and most other categories, it was just a nightmare season for the normally reliable righty. He won’t put up numbers like his 2016 season, but I think its safe to say he won’t post an ERA near 8 again. God I hope he doesn’t.
Andrew Cashner was a name the O’s had been linked to for a few seasons, he finally wears the Orange and Black this season after a season with the Rangers in 2017. The Birds were able to get him pretty cheap too, 2-year deal worth $16 million. Cashner’s numbers on a bad Texas team were pretty decent. 11-11 with a 3.40 ERA, but posted a career low K/9, which is obviously cause for concern. But overall, Cashner kept the ball in the ballpark, only giving up 15 bombs in his 28 starts. He doesn’t need to be the guy for the Birds, and he won’t be. He’ll be counted on to be a middle of the rotation guy, maybe go 6 innings, and limit damage.
I don’t need a 15-5 with a 2.8 ERA season out of him, but if he can keep that ERA where it was last year, that should be good enough to keep the O’s in the game and let their offense go to work. He’ll also be a guy the younger pitchers can go to. I hope Gausman and Bundy live in this guys pocket, follow him like a puppy and just pick his brain. I’m excited to see what Cashner brings and if he can replicate the season he had last year.
This is the move that has Birdland excited, Alex Cobb was signed last week to a 4 year deal worth $57 million. As I mentioned last week, Cobb is a legit, front of the rotation guy for most clubs. I think he’s a very good pitcher who has had his battles in the AL East, and like Cashner, can be a tutor to Bundy,Gausman, and eventually Hunter Harvey. He received the largest deal for a pitcher in Birds history, and I have a feeling this will be much better than the previous largest contract.
Cobb has rebounded from Tommy John in 2015 and seems to have found his old self. In 2017 he went 12-10 with a 3.66 ERA in 29 starts. He also had a WHIP of 1.221, had 128 Ks and 44 walks in 179.1 IP. One of the major reasons he was picked up was his knowledge of the AL East. He has spent his whole career in Tampa, so he knows the parks, he knows the lineups, how to attack these guys. Look at his numbers vs the Sox in his career, 6-4 with a 3.43 ERA in 14 starts. Against the Yankees? 6-4 with a 2.99 ERA. It’s been a while since the Orioles had a guy who you got excited for when you saw him on the mound, I think Cobb is that guy.
Since he just signed, he needs more time and won’t be ready for Opening Day, but Buck Showalter said to expect Cobb to be with the club somewhere between April 9th and 14th. In the meantime, we may see Mike Wright start. Mike Wright STINKS. Wright is out of options, so I expect Wright to be on the Opening Day roster, and then be DFA’d when Cobb is ready to join the club. That move right there makes the club a ton better.
So basically the Orioles kept Bundy, Gausman, Tillman, threw Miley and Ubaldo out of the club, and added Cashner and Cobb. That is an upgrade anyway you look at it. This rotation is going to against the best lineups in the league 19 times a year in some pretty hitter friendly ballparks, it won’t be pretty for them at times. It will be interesting to see how the young guys perform, if they can take that next step, if Tillman can finally get fully healthy and pitch like we know he can, and if the new guns can live up to their deals. They were brought to help solidify this rotation and help make the team competitive. I think they can do that. I’m not expecting any Cy Young’s to be handed out to these guys, but I think this rotation is much improved.
Get ready, Orioles bullpen preview coming at you tomorrow.