The 2018 "Tiger Woods Is Going To Win The Arnold Palmer Invitational, I Think" Preview

Arnold Palmer is perhaps the most legendary figure in the history of the game. Sure, Jack Nicklaus won more majors (18 to 7), and Mr. Palmer sits 5th all-time, not first, in PGA TOUR wins (62), but when you combine all that with the fact that Arnold Palmer was the first sports television SUPERSTAR to leverage his fame and likability into an arsenal of enormous business successes, that he did it all with perhaps the most infectious personality the game’s ever seen, and that he unofficially had sex with more women than anyone else in the history of the world, well he’s just the best.

Arnold Palmer was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2004 and the Congressional Gold Medal in 2009. He founded Golf Channel, designed more than 300 courses, and accomplished incredible work philanthropically. After Mr. Palmer’s death, Tiger said, “My kids were born at the Winnie Palmer Hospital for Women & Babies, and his philanthropic work will be remembered along with his accomplishments in golf.”

He also was a Freemason. People forget that.

Oh and he created the greatest drink of all time.

Mr. Palmer won his 7 majors in a 6-year span — a stretch of some of the greatest golf the game’s ever seen.

If you had told me, before Mr. Palmer passed, that I could pick any one golfer to take and have a photo with forever, I would have said Arnold Palmer.

RIP King, he will be forever missed.

The Event

The Arnold Palmer Invitational began in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open Invitational; it landed at Bay Hill in the late 70s, and was named some variation of “Bay Hill” until it became The Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2007. MasterCard’s been the “presented by” sponsor for a while.

It’s one of just 5 events given “invitational” status by the Tour, thus carrying a smaller 120-man field than the typical 156.

History

Bay Hill has been the site of some of Tiger’s most dramatic finishes.

2004, to beat Phil.

2008, to keep the winning streak alive.

2009, first win after a 9-month layoff following reconstructive knee surgery.

Tiger’s won this event 8 times, last in 2013. Here are his career results at Bay Hill.

In 2003, he won by 11 strokes.

Tiger just knows what to do here.

In 1990, Robert Gamez grabbed a 7-iron needing birdie for the tie…

… and holed out for the win. This defeated by 1-stroke no one other than, of course, Greg Norman.

Marc Leishman is our defending champ, he beat Kiz and Charley Hoffman by 1 stroke last year.

The Track

7,381 yards. Par 72. It’s a pretty classic Florida layout: flat, lots of water, punishing rough. There’s a circulating narrative that the players don’t universally love the course, but I’m not sold on that. I think some love it, some aren’t crazy about it. Bottom line, any track that’s traditionally been on Tiger’s yearly schedule gets the stamp of approval. That’s just the way it is.

Notable Holes

6th, par 5, 555 yards

The 6th is a giant half moon with a lake guarding the entire left side. You bite off as much as you want off the tee but should be advised to do so within reason. John Daly infamously made an 18 here in 1998 after trying to drive the green from the tee.

Here’s the yardage book’s take on it.

16th, par 5, 511 yards

This one’s played as a tough par 4 or an easier par 5 over the years. At 511 it’s not very long, but will play as a 5-par this week and will definitely cause some guys problems. The rough lining the 16th’s fairway is some of the thickest on property and there’s a creek guarding the front of the green. Anything that misses the fairway here will typically require a layup.

In Tiger’s 2009 comeback win over Sean O’Hair, Tiger missed the fairway, laid up, and wedged it close for par (was playing as par 4). O’Hair hit the fairway, went for it with a mid-iron, put it into the drink, and lost by 1.

16 is pivotal.

17th, par 3, 221 yards

Tough test made even tougher by its position on the course. 221 over water and a massive bunker to a very firm green ain’t easy. It’s less easy when it’s the 71st hole of the tournament, or when it’s straight into the hawk.

18th, par 4, 458 yards

Love it or hate it, the 18th has become an iconic finishing hole in the game. When playing the course you see it for the first time from the 16th tee — it’s gorgeously intimidating.

Clubhouse

A sprawling putting green backdropped by a dining room, locker room, pro shop, and office at which Mr. Palmer routinely hung around and spent his days? Makes this all very special. It’s awesome. It’s Mr. Arnold Palmer’s clubhouse.

Bay Hill Clubhouse = 9.1.

Weather

Pretty good.

The Field

Tiger.

Rickie.

Rory.

This Stoolie, who’s paired with Tiger and Hideki for Thursday and Friday.

Other notables: Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Henrik Stenson, Marc Leishman, Kevin Kisner, Alex Noren.

Here are some odds.

Tiger Woods 6/1
Jason Day 12/1
Rickie Fowler 12/1
Justin Rose 14/1
Rory McIlroy 18/1
Tommy Fleetwood 20/1
Hideki Matsuyama 20/1
Adam Scott 25/1
Tyrell Hatton 25/1
Alex Noren 25/1
Henrik Stenson 30/1
Patrick Reed 30/1
Bubba Watson 30/1
Marc Leishman 40/1
Brian Harman 30/1
Brandt Snedeker 40/1

Predictions

Winning Score

Leishman won at 11-under last year while Jason Day got to 17 the year prior. The weather is supposed to be sunny, hot, and calm, so guys can go low.

Winning score, -14.

Winner

He’s the betting favorite and he’s the betting favorite for a reason. I refuse to be on the wrong side of history (money) when this happens.

Winner, Tiger Woods.

The Steven Bowditch Memorial DFL Award

I mean, we’re getting dangerously close to having to rename this thing after Smylie Kaufman.

DFL, our buddy Smylie.

Dark Horse

Brian Harman’s list of results thus far in the 2017-2018 season looks like this:

T5
T8
4
T3
3
T4
T20
CUT
T33
T5

And he’s 30/1. Love that combo.

Dark horse, Brian Harman.

Coverage

Thursday & Friday: 2-6 PM Golf Channel
Saturday: 12:30-2:30 PM Golf Channel; 2:30-6 PM NBC
Sunday: 12:30-2 PM Golf Channel; 2-6:30 PM NBC

Tiger goes off the 10th tee at 8:23 AM Thursday and will be on PGA TOUR Live’s featured coverage.

He goes off shortly after noon on Friday and will be on PGA TOUR Live then TV coverage.

And this legend will be on-site.

Final Thoughts

Troll Cat joined Fore Play this week to talk Tiger and Tiger fans.

Enjoy Bay Hill. RIP King.