ACC Tournament Starts Today: Preview, Picks, Storylines
I don’t care how many years this happens, I’m always shocked to see three ACC games on a Tuesday. But, that’s life with conference realignment. For me, it really started to feel like conference tournament week when the 8/9 ACC game tipped. That’ obviously no longer the case. That said, the ACC Tournament is still absolutely awesome and this year there is plenty of reason to catch nearly every game. Here’s this year’s bracket:
Odds: For those that like some sweat. These are the odds via Oddsshark:
Bubble Teams that Need a Win: There are quite a bit of teams that could use a win or two to feel safe. We’ll start with Notre Dame because they are by far the most interesting of these bubble teams. Notre Dame enters the ACC Tournament as the 10 seed, but the majority of the season was played without Bonzie Colson. He’s now back and Notre Dame is looking like a NCAA Tournament team again. They’ll get by Pitt which sets up a game against Virginia Tech. That’s not a terrible matchup for them. However, if Notre Dame truly wants to get on the bubble a win over Virginia Tech does just that. It’ll be intriguing to see how the committee values the return of Colson, something that’s pretty tough to do. You don’t necessarily know what would have happened with him on the floor. Louisville is another team that needs at least one win to feel okay, two to feel real good. Louisville plays Florida State (a team that could be close to the bubble here) in the 8/9 game that means quite a bit. After that it’s Syracuse to keep an eye on. Syracuse draws Wake and then UNC if it wins. A win over UNC would do wonders, even the win over Wake would as it would make up for a road loss earlier in the year.
Value Team to Take: We gave out the Michigan 7/1 for the Big 10, so let’s hope to get another one and get some profit money heading into the NCAA Tournament. I like NC State at 14/1 here for the value team to take. If the Wolfpack can beat BC/Georgia Tech, it draws a Clemson team that is absolutely falling apart down the stretch here and dealing with injuries. Get to the semis against Virginia, perhaps hope for an upset and then you’re sitting okay. Kevin Keatts is one hell of a coach and I truly enjoy watching NC State play this year. They have a handful of shooters, most notably Sam Hunt, who I swear hasn’t missed a three from the left wing/corner this year.
Players to Watch: You know all about Marvin Bagley, Grayson Allen, Luke Maye, Joel Berry, Matt Farrell, etc so we’re going to avoid those guys. We’ll be taking a look at some of the other guys across the league that perhaps the casual fan doesn’t know much about yet.
Omer Yurtseven (NC State) – Yurtseven is an interesting player for NC State. The sophomore is a potential NBA draft prospect due to his size at 7’0″ and ability to step out and shoot. He’s shooting 52% from three this year on over 40 attempts. He’s also a rim protector as the last time we saw him on the court he got 5 locks against Louisville.
Lonnie Walker (Miami) – I’m pretty sure most people know about him, but in case not he’s a likely lottery pick in the upcoming draft. The freshman has absolutely taken over the team ever since Bruce Brown went down with an injury as he’s now averaging over 11 per game and upped his 3-point shooting to just about 36%.
Ray Spalding (Louisville) – Spalding has been the breakout player for Louisville this year as he’s now in his junior year. The Louisville native is averaging 12 points and over 8 rebounds per game. Spalding is another big who is agile and brings some agility to the court. The question is always how much he looks to attack and if he stays locked into the game. He can help Louisville here.
Justin Robinson (Virginia Tech) – If Virginia Tech wants to make a run in this tournament it will be on the shoulders of Justin Robinson. While Virginia Tech is a fairly balanced team it is led by Robinson and his 13+ points per game. However, VT is at its best when Robinson is looking to attack. He has strong court vision so it’s not like he has to attack to score, he just needs to be aggressive.
Marcquise Reed (Clemson) – In his second year at Clemson, Reed has turned into a go-to guy for the Tigers. He looks to get his shot up from behind the arc, getting up over 5 threes per game. Reed can do a little bit of everything as he’s a strong rebounder at 6’3″ and will look to try and get to the glass.
Storylines to Watch
1. Can Duke get to a 1 seed?
Thanks to everything that happened in the Big 10 Tournament it feels like there is just now 5 realistic options for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Virginia, Xavier, Kansas, Villanova and Duke. In order for Duke to get up to the top line, it would need to win the ACC Tournament and ideally hope for a loss early by Nova, Xavier or Kansas. If that doesn’t happen, Duke would need to win and likely hope for Nova to beat Xavier for a third time.
2. Can Virginia enter the NCAA Tournament as a borderline scary team?
To me the narrative is there are great teams, there are just no scary teams in college basketball this year. Those four teams I listed are great teams, but no one is scared of them. What happens if Virginia goes out and easily wins the ACC Tournament after winning the ACC regular season with ease? That could push them into that borderline scary territory as we head into the NCAA Tournament. Now, I don’t know if this team will ever get there due to the offense they run and not having a guy like Brogdon/Harris/Anderson but rather having to scare by running Guy off down and curl screens.
3. Does UNC have enough depth to make a run playing an extra day?
The loss to Duke on Saturday pushed UNC to the 6 seed and out of the double bye. That’s absolutely brutal, but my question is more does UNC have enough on its bench in order to make the run and beat good teams to get there? UNC would have to beat Miami and Duke (if seeds hold) in order to get to the finals. Then from there you’re likely on an extra day of playing vs a team like Virginia. Yes, UNC has talent and is experienced, but playing an extra day in this sort of event can be a huge disadvantage.
Predictions
1st Round: No. 12 Boston College over No. 13 Georgia Tech, No. 11 Syracuse over No. 14 Wake Forest, No. 10 Notre Dame over No. 15 Pitt
2nd Round: No. 9 Louisville over No. 8 Florida State, No. 5 NC State over No. 12 Boston College, No. 6 UNC over No. 11 Syracuse, No. 10 Notre Dame over No. 7 Virginia Tech
Quarterfinals: No. 1 Virginia over No. 9 Louisville, No. 6 NC State over No. 4 Clemson, No. 3 Miami over No. 6 UNC, No. 2 Duke over No. 10 Notre Dame
Semifinals: No. 1 Virginia over No. 6 NC State, No. 2 Duke over No. 3 Miami
Finals: No. 2 Duke over No. 1 Virginia
MVP: Marvin Bagley (Duke)
All-Tournament Team: Marvin Bagley (Duke), Grayson Allen (Duke), Devon Hall (Virginia), Torin Dorn (NC State), Lonnie Walker (Miami)
Why Duke: Simply put I think Duke is the best team in the country. The switch to the 2-3 zone has been absolutely awesome for them. Now, that doesn’t mean all teams should go to a zone permanently if they are struggling defensively, it just fits Duke because of Marvin Bagley’s current inability to guard out on the wing. That will change as he gets older. The other thing is letting Grayson be the lead guard. They are playing incredibly well right now, even with the loss at Virginia Tech last week. They also have experience playing in a tournament setting going out to Portland for the PK80 this year. It’s chalky and cliche, sure, but I’ll take the best team.