Breaking Down Luka Doncic's Game and Who He is as a Prospect

If you haven’t been watching EuroBasket over the last week or so, you may have missed Luka Doncic doing his best job to be the No. 1 prospect heading into the start of college basketball/Euroleague season. Doncic and Slovenia have made it to the semifinals after beating Latvia in what was the best game of the tournament so far. He was a clear top-5 (probably more top-3) prospect before EuroBasket started, but thanks to his performance so far and Slovenia’s success, people are starting to wonder just how good this guy is. The answer is simple. He’s really goddamn good. So the better question is what makes him so good and just what type of prospect is he?

First off, he’s not your traditional European prospect. He’s 18 years old and isn’t really a project. You know the player you’re getting in Doncic when he comes over to the NBA. He became the youngest player to ever step on the court for Real Madrid when he did so at 16 years old. Right off the bat, that’s an impressive thing to see, especially when you look at Real Madrid’s roster. This isn’t a list of no-names, these are some of the best players in Europe – a good handful of which played in the NBA. Doncic already has the size to compete in the NBA as he’s 6’7″ with a solid frame.

At Real Madrid, Doncic has the ball in his hands on the offensive side quite a bit. He’s become the lead ballhandler despite being 6’7″ and is more of a playmaker than anything else. He can play on the wing or with the ball in his hands – think how Luke Kennard is viewed heading into the NBA this year. We’ve seen it with Slovenia over the last week or so playing alongside Goran Dragic. Doncic has been on the wing, but Slovenia has run their offense through him there (along with Dragic obviously).

At EuroBasket so far Doncic is averaging 15.7 ppg/7.7 rpg/ 3.1 apg. What jumps out right away is the nearly eight rebounds a game – which is good enough for sixth in the competition. He also has shooting splits of  43/35/85%, showing he can beat you in a variety of ways. So let’s get into some strengths and weaknesses with his game – which you should watch against Spain on Thursday.

Strengths: 

Rebounds and pushes: 

This is something that Doncic does extremely well. He gets a rebound and pushes the floor. That’s what happens when you have his size and his playmaking ability. I know it may not seem like much, especially against Ukraine here, but it’s a game-changer and something we see in the NBA now. When a wing can crash the board and push tempo, letting his point guard fill the lane, it’s speeding up the game. It’s taking advantage of the ‘small ball’ era that we are currently in. He doesn’t take a wasted dribble either, which for an 18-year old, puts you a step ahead of everyone else. When he gets rebounds he turns immediately, tends to take a composure dribble to survey the floor then pushes.

Shooting: 

It doesn’t matter if it’s off the catch or bounce, Doncic is going to be a good shooter. Take a look at his shot form here from behind:

A couple things to notice right away that are positives:

– It’s a nice compact stroke.

– He has a high release point, something he’s consistent with.

– He keeps a good base with his lower body. Feet tend to be in the same spot when he gets in shooting motion.

– Off hand isn’t too far up on the ball.

– He has a quick release.

I know those don’t all show in just one picture, but this still shot is a good view of his shot form. This shot was taken off the catch, but when you watch him off the dribble, you notice his footwork to get into this as well is strong.

Watch this step back against Ukraine. He’s able to keep the dribble compact, close to his body during the entire move. That’s a huge thing. He doesn’t let the ball get away from him as he’s setting up his shot. Once he gets the step back, he immediately gets his feet under him. Ideally he wouldn’t be leaning as far forward as he is, but he does have that base that allows him the strength to be slightly off center. Again, notice where the shot release is. The ball is high, at the same point as it is off the catch in the picture above. The off hand doesn’t really move as he has a good follow through as well. This is the shot that will be huge for him in the NBA, due to questions about his ability to finish over better athletes.

Passing/Playmaking 

The reason Doncic can play point despite being 6’8″ is his passing ability. He sees the floor extremely well and is a great passer both in the halfcourt or on a fastbreak. He looks to get others involved and can be used especially in pick-and-roll sets. In yesterday’s game against Latvia, Slovenia ended the game by putting Doncic in high ball screens to where he could attack Kristaps off the bounce. He was looking to score more than anything else in these, but the fact that he could get into the lane and make a decision shows just how talented this kid is.

Again, I hate using the Ukraine game so much, but it’s a great example of what Doncic can do. Here they run the high ball screen for him at the top of the key. As the roll guy gets stuck a little up top, Doncic knows to keep his dribble as the switch on defense happens. Dragic’s guy on the wing tries to dive in and swipe at the ball and Doncic’s man eventually comes back to switch. The key though is Randolph’s guy, who doesn’t even seem to be in the play. Doncic draws so much attention that Randolph’s guy is helping in an extra 2 feet than he needs to be. Despite four guys with a foot in the paint against him, Doncic is able to see Randolph open on the opposite wing and throw a one-handed pass that lets Randolph take a dribble to the elbow for an easy jumper. It’s that sort of recognition that will translate to the NBA. He doesn’t try to do too much.

It’s also on the fast break as I mentioned before. It’s a simple pass, but it’s one that he makes time after time, which again at 18 and 6’8″ is a reason why he could be the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. It’s a very small thing, but the fact he knows to throw this pass with a little loft to the lead to the basket just shows how developed his game is. Again, it’s not overhyping this guy, he’s simply that good.

Like anything though there are some weaknesses in his game. For starters, there are questions if he can score over better athletes. He doesn’t have elite athleticism, and he’s not going to jump over anyone. Will that hurt him in the NBA as he likes to get into the lane and attack the glass? Personally, I don’t think so because he’s able to finish in crafty ways. We’ve seen him shoot one-handed push shots, scoops and use a fadeaway to combat that weakness of athleticism. But, compared to Marvin Bagley and Michael Porter Jr. (the two guys I think are with him for No. 1 overall pick right this second) his athleticism is way behind. There are questions with how quick he is as well, especially laterally. Will he be able to defend NBA wings? We’ve seen him contest shots at the rim, but what about in an ISO set when an NBA wing has space?

There’s no doubt he’ll have the most ‘questions’ heading into the NBA Draft by the casual fan, simply because people won’t be able to see him play. He’s not playing in the States and you hear so much about the Europeans who flop in the NBA. That’s not Doncic though. The kid is the most polished European prospect I’ve seen in my time doing this and his skill set transfers. Don’t let the fact that you’ll have to watch his games on an obscure network or through the internet deter you from letting him compete for the No. 1 pick. The thing is with Doncic, most players at his age have ‘promise’ or  are projects. Doncic is already there. We know what he is. There aren’t questions in terms of development or what he can improve on. At this point it’s more fine tuning his game.

I encourage you to watch Slovenia/Spain tomorrow. You can catch the game on WatchESPN. Watch how he finishes over the Gasol brothers. Also, Spain pushed hard for Doncic to apply for citizenship and join the Spanish team, something he clearly declined. There will be a little of emotion in that game and it’s the two best teams in the event. You’ll get to see him against NBA guys like Ricky Rubio.