Previewing the ACC Title Game Between Duke and Notre Dame
ACC Tournament Championship – Brooklyn
No. 5 Duke vs No. 3 Notre Dame – 9:00 pm
Line: Duke -5
It’s been the ‘Duke is back’ Tournament more than anything else. It’s all people want to talk about and rightfully so. That’s what happens when you have a top-5 program with this sort of talent starting to get hot with more eyes on the sport and just days away from the NCAA Tournament. People know about Duke. They don’t know or remember the loss to NC State. They see the two wins over UNC. They see the come from behind victory over Louisville.
That’s why there’s been a bit of outrage today when reports started to break that Duke was in the running for the fourth No. 1 seed. Everyone immediately rushed to get pissed because no team has ever had 8 losses and been a No. 1 seed. While I think the four No. 1 seeds should be Villanova, UNC, Gonzaga and Kansas, Duke has a pretty impressive resume.
On the other side is Notre Dame, who just finishes in the top-5 in the ACC and makes a run in the ACC Tournament. This is the second time in three years they are playing for the ACC title. They have quietly put together a nice resume, especially after a little bit of a skid in the middle of conference play.
– One thing to watch with this though is the 3-point line. Notre Dame doesn’t shoot as many threes as you’d expect. They shoot 40% of 3’s/FGA, which is 66th in the country. However, they do shoot 39% on those attempts. Duke on the other hand doesn’t give up a ton of 3’s. They only allow 21% of 3’s/FGA and 29% on those attempts. Duke teams usually do defend the 3-point line well, so if they are running Notre Dame off of the line, look for midrange jumpers, which seems to be in Notre Dame’s wheelhouse. Although, when they move the ball like this, it explains how Notre Dame has a high shooting percentage:
– Duke made its run yesterday with a ‘big’ lineup, moving Tatum to the three. I don’t expect to see much of that tonight, but they at least know that’s an option if there’s foul trouble or Kennard struggles again. I still believe the best lineup for Duke is Jackson-Grayson-Kennard-Tatum-Jefferson.
– Watch for how the teams mix in some zone with their typical man-to-man defense. For Notre Dame, it’s a way to limit the size advantage and slow the game down. Duke will use it with the short bench it has. If that’s the case, they both have guys who can attack in the middle. They like to spread you out and let a guy like Kennard flash and then relocate.
– Finally, we have to talk about Grayson Allen. I don’t give a shit about his antics, this is purely from how different he makes Duke as a team when he’s shooting the ball. We’ve seen it twice against UNC now. When he’s extending the defense by making threes, that offense becomes less predictable. They want to drive and kick. Adding him as a shooter there means you have to decide when to help on Jackson and Kennard driving in the lane. His shooting is the most important thing for Duke going forward.
Pick: Duke is absolutely rolling right now, there’s no doubting that. I do think they win this game as it just feels like that sort of tournament. Though, I think Notre Dame is going to keep it close, as a lot of people will be on Duke in this game. They need to limit Jayson Tatum from destroying them like he did in South Bend.