ACC Tournament Starts Today: Preview, Picks, Things to Watch
It’s almost fitting that the best conference in America gets to start a day earlier than the other major conferences. Personally, I have no idea how you even start to pick the bracket here as there are a handful of teams that can go win this thing. Here’s the bracket for those that haven’t seen it yet:
Odds: For those that like some sweat. These are the odds via Oddsshark:
Bubble Teams that Need a Win: Wake Forest, Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Clemson (I don’t necessarily think Clemson is a bubble team, but whatever)
Value team to take: Miami at 33/1 is pretty juicy. Note I’m just talking about a longer shot here, not who I think is going to win. But, Miami has wins over UNC, Virginia and Duke already this year so they are more than capable of getting hot in the tournament.
Players to Watch: You know all about the big names like Justin Jackson, Joel Berry, Luke Kennard, Jayson Tatum and everyone else on Duke. But, what about the guys that the casual fan aren’t too familiar with? Here are five to watch:
John Collins (Wake Forest) – He’s the best big in the conference right now as he’s played himself into a possible lottery pick after his sophomore season. He’s averaging 19.1/9.8 and moves pretty good for his size. On top of that blocks 1.6 shots per game.
Bonzie Colson (Notre Dame) – He’s the reason Notre Dame can be a terrible matchup because he’s 6’5″ and can run the five spot for Notre Dame. Despite his lack of height he threw up 17 and 10 this year and shoots 39.6% from the 3-point line.
Seth Allen (Virginia Tech) – Is he as talented as Kemba Walker or Gerry McNamara? No. Does he think he is? Absolutely. Allen is the type of dude who can get hot for a couple of games and lead Virginia Tech to a couple upsets. He shot 46.5% from the 3-point line this year and is averaging 13.1 ppg.
Kyle Guy (Virginia) – Guy is pretty noticeable thanks to the man bun look, but he’s also exactly what Virginia needs on offense right now. He’s a guy who can go get his own bucket, step back and hit 3’s and most importantly get hot, quick. We saw him come on towards the end of the season scoring 19 against NC State and 17 against Carolina.
Ben Lammers (Georgia Tech) – Lammers is probably the main reason as to why Georgia Tech had the successful season it did. He’s arguably the best defensive player in the conference, averaging 3.3 blocks per game while also putting up 14.6/9.2 each time out.
Storylines to Watch:
1. Can UNC do the double feat of regular season and conference tournament?
This is the most complete team in the country and it wouldn’t shock me to see them win this thing. That said, I’m going with someone else (pick later, because that’s a teaser in the biz) because look at the gauntlet UNC would have to go through in the top half of that bracket. Having Syracuse/Miami then either Louisville/Duke is no joke, especially with the bottom half a little bit weaker. They should be locked in to a No. 1 seed unless they just get straight up embarrassed by Miami or Cuse so there’s not a whole lot at play here for UNC except a trophy and pride.
2. Will 11 teams get in from the ACC to match the old Big East?
I’m going to go with no here. Right now the locks are UNC, Florida State, Notre Dame, Louisville, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Miami. The highly-likely group of Syracuse and Wake (as long as they don’t lose) gives us 10. Georgia Tech would have to win two games for me to think they have a shot at getting in and I don’t think they get the one over Virginia in the second round. Still, 10 bids is pretty ridiculous.
I think this is Virginia. They fell to 6th in the ACC and are slotted at a No. 5 seed pretty much across all bracket projections. This is a team that looked like they would compete for a top-3 seed all season before a 4-game losing streak late in the year. They’ll have their chances for quality wins, which goes a long way towards the committee, but an early loss and this is a team that’s looking more like a No. 6 seed in the NCAA’s as well.
Predictions:
1st Round: No. 12 Clemson over No. 13 NC State, No. 10 Wake Forest over no. 15 Boston College, No. 11 Georgia Tech over No. 14 Pitt
2nd round: No. 9 Miami over No. 8 Syracuse, No. 5 Duke over No. 12 Clemson, No. 10 Wake Forest over No. 7 Virginia Tech, No. 6 Virginia over No. 11 Georgia Tech
Quarterfinals: No. 1 UNC over No. 9 Miami, No. 4 Louisville over No. 5 Duke, No. 2 Florida State over Wake Forest, No. 6 Virginia over No. 3 Notre Dame
Semifinals: No. 4 Louisville over No. 1 UNC, No. 6 Virginia over No. 2 Florida State
Finals: No. 6 Virginia over No. 4 Louisville
MVP: Kyle Guy (Virginia)
All-Tournament: Kyle Guy (Virginia), Donovan Mitchell (Louisville), Justin Jackson (UNC), Deng Adel (Louisville), London Perrantes (Virginia)
Why Virginia: Are they the best team in the conference? Hell no. Are they set up the best for tournaments? Absolutely not. But, I go back to what I mentioned earlier, the benefit of the draw being in the bottom half. They have owned Notre Dame since Tony Bennett took over, which would be the likely quarterfinal game. In the semis (let’s assume No. 2 FSU is there) Florida State has struggled away from home and have been inconsistent as of late. During these conference tournaments someone inevitability gets hot and wins you a couple games. That’s going to be Kyle Guy as he plays with a short-term memory, which is a compliment.