Danny Duffy Is The Most Under-Appreciated And Most Slept On Pitcher In Baseball
If I asked you to name the 4 pitchers that rank within the top 5 in their league’s ERA category (among qualified pitchers or those that threw at least 149 innings) in two of the past 3 years, you’d probably easily choose two (Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta) but the two AL names on this list are a bit more elusive. Marco Estrada, formerly the Brewers’ starter that you’d watch if you wanted to see some dingers (He gave up an NL high 29 homers in 2014), really blossomed with his new team, the Toronto Blue Jays, and was even an all-star this year. The 4th name? Danny Duffy of the Kansas City Royals. Now, I am cheating a bit because Duffy did not qualify for the American League ERA title in 2014 – he was 12.2 innings short.
2011-2015: Duffy, a former top prospect, struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness from 2011-2013 until really bursting on to the scene in 2014. Duffy’s 2014 ERA of 2.53 ranked ahead of future Cy winner Dallas Keuchel, former Cy winner David Price, former (and probably future too) Cy winner Max Scherzer, and Jose Quintana. There were plenty of reasons to shrug off Duffy’s success in 2014. Duffy had a good ERA and nothing else. His K/9 of 6.8 would’ve ranked 59th out of 89 qualified starters and the 3.2 walks that he gave up per 9 innings would likewise rank 19th worst in baseball. Even his ERA probably should’ve been a lot worse. xFIP, an ERA estimator that accounts for stabilizing one’s HR/FB rate, claimed he should’ve been 3rd worst in the league in ERA – not 5th best. And yet there he was, atop the leaderboards despite such a fluky season. Last year, luck caught up with him, his walks rose, his Ks dipped, and his HRs allowed stabilized. In short, 2015 proved that Duffy’s 2014 was a farce.
2016: Maybe Duffy’s fluke of a 2014 made people less apt to believe that what he is doing now is legitimate but… this time? it is. Danny Duffy did not even crack Kansas City’s rotation until mid-May but he has been nothing short of lights out since then. Duffy leads the American League in ERA this year and has been backed up by strong supporting stats. Duffy is K-ing 10 batters every 9 innings, a remarkable difference from the sub-7 numbers that he was throwing out in the past. Those bad walk rates that he grappled with in years past? They’re gone too – Duffy is issuing free passes to just 5.1% of batters he faces and is top 10 in baseball there. 1 of every 10 flyballs hit off of Duffy leave the park which is just in line with the league average.
2015 (Left); 2016 (Right)
What are some of the main reason’s for Duffy’s sudden dominance? The most striking is increased velocity. Duffy’s 4-seamer had sat around 93 MPH for most of his career but now he’s throwing 95. Other pitches have also gained in velocity with his curve jumping from 81 to 84 mph. The added crispness and improved control have paid huge dividends for Duffy who is getting strike calls on the first pitch of the at bat more frequently now than ever before and who is inducing swinging strikes 13.8% of the time, a gigantic rise from his career 9.2 mark. Duffy’s changes manifest theirselves in his opponents’ batted ball data – a year ago, dozens of liners hit off him went to LF, now, hardly any do. Duffy’s stuff and pitch movement also seems to have developed remarkably this year – not only is he getting opposing batters to swing at pitches out of the zone at career-high rates but they’re also missing on those pitches more frequently than they had in the past (58.5% contact rate on balls out of the zone this year compared to 75% rates in 2014 and ’15). Danny Duffy can still be beaten when he leaves balls on the inner third of the plate but when he throws them elsewhere, batters either swing and miss or make weak contact. Danny Duffy’s 2014 was a fluke but his 2016 is very very real. Duffy tossed a complete game last night and now has thrown 23.2 in August, allowing 3 runs and striking out 28.