Should The Red Sox Make A Run At Zack Greinke?
The league leader in ERA, WHIP and ERA+, Zack Greinke, opted out of his contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday, leaving three years and $71 million on the table to become a free agent.
The last time Greinke led the league in those three aforementioned categories was back in 2009 — the same year that he won his first Cy Young Award, and he could be on the verge of winning another this year. Given that Greinke just posted the lowest ERA of any qualifying pitcher in the 21st century (1.66), it’s safe to say that the 32-year-old picked a rather opportune time to jump into the free agent market.
The second the news broke, as expected, I got a bunch of tweets asking me if the Red Sox would be in on Greinke. Originally, it was a hard no from me. I was passing on Greinke due to his history of having an anxiety disorder that nearly forced him into retirement earlier in his career. I made the assumption that a market like Boston would not bode well for a player with such a disorder. A few folks jumped down my throat for my stance, without allowing me to elaborate. Of course, there was the argument that L.A. is a big market, to which I said, ask Carl Crawford if there’s a difference between playing in Boston and playing in Los Angeles. I’d also invite you to ask Manny Ramirez, too, but I doubt he even knows he used to play for the Dodgers. Sure, L.A. is a big market in terms of TV deals and payroll, but the pressure from the fans and the microscope that you’re under by the media isn’t even remotely comparable to what it’s like in Boston.
In 2010, my friend Peter (Gammons) said, “I can’??t believe [the Yankees would] ever trade for Greinke and try to have him pitch in New York. I think he’??s better off pitching in Greenland.” This was during a time when trade rumors were swirling that the Yankees might try to pull off a trade for Greinke. While the rumor mill was buzzing, Greinke himself said, “Now, maybe New York would bother me, but I don’??t think anywhere else would bother me anymore. Even though I’??m in Kansas City, I’??ve gotten used to it a lot more. New York, I still might have trouble in New York. I probably would. But I think almost everyone does.”
If you can’t handle New York, then you probably can’t handle Boston. But I’ll give Greinke the benefit of the doubt in that this was in 2010, before he had pitched anywhere but Kansas City, back when the average attendance for a Royals game would make Tropicana Field look like Gillette Stadium on a Sunday in January.
Now, am I saying that it’s a guarantee that playing in an environment like Boston would trigger his anxiety? No, I am not saying that. What I am saying, though, is that we don’t know if it will. And for the estimated price tag of six years and $155 million that it would take to sign him, you are assuming a pretty large risk in that that’s a part of his history and mental makeup. But none of us know if he could handle playing in a city like Boston, and it’s unfair to assume that he can’t, which is why I’m not. Matt Collins of Baseball Prospectus made some great points on Twitter, saying that Greinke is “an extremely smart and cerebral guy, and will assuredly do his due diligence on wherever he goes. If he decides that Boston is a good fit, that is most definitely good enough for me, and it should be good enough for you, too.” I’m totally on board with that line of thinking.
However, I think the Greinke discussion is all for naught, as I think the Red Sox will ultimately pass on him regardless of his history. The Red Sox would have to forfeit their first-round pick (12th overall) in order to sign Greinke, which I think they would most likely balk at. That, and I just think Greinke enjoys pitching in the National League, and it’s well known that he loves to hit. So, if you had the image of Greinke in a Red Sox uniform floating around in your head, I think you’re going to be greatly disappointed.