The CAWs Are Ruining Horse Racing And We Got Another Example Of That This Weekend
I started betting on horses again this weekend.
I got the itch after doing an impromptu Black Friday "Doubles Show" with Elio. I had not really looked much since the Breeders' Cup. But after the show on Friday, I played and won a few bucks.
Saturday, with good race cards in New York and Kentucky, I made sure the DK Horse app was funded, did some handicapping, and planned out some bets for later in the afternoon.
I was quickly reminded why I've bet so much less over the last year and a half.
The above result is from Aqueduct Race 7 on Saturday. I did not bet on the race, but was watching all the races at Aqueduct and Churchill. This one was interesting because the favorite did not finish in the Top 3, meaning the payouts in the exacta and trifecta bets should be pretty good.
The exacta is a bet where you pick the 1st- and 2nd-place finishers in a race, in order. Historically (and this is not perfect math), you can estimate the exacta payout by multiplying the win price by the place price. In this case $16.06 x $6.32. Twenty years ago, this would have paid closer to $85, but the game has changed - and not in a good way. Now, even on the low end, this 7-1 over 7-1 exacta should have paid about $60 for $1.
It paid just $23. 👀👀👀
Dave was pretty locked into Michigan/Ohio State, so I don't think he was firing on Aqueduct. He's stated he LOVES exactas, and has pointed out in the past where the CAW (Computer Assisted Wagering) money has ruined what should have been a good payout. He'll HATE when he sees this, because it seems like what happened in Race 7 Saturday at Aqueduct.
Paul Matties has been handicapping horses for decades. He's so good and so well-respected that he's in the NTRA National Horseplayers Championship's Hall of Fame. Yes, there is a Hall of Fame for horseplayers.
He says a late $8200 bet came in on the 7-8 finish. That exacta was at 63-1, then got bet down to 22-1 on just that one bet. CAWs can't bet in the win pool with two minutes to post in New York, so their late action comes in the exacta pool. And you get shit like this.
The track paid out $228,710 in winning exacta wagers. That one bettor who played the $8200 exacta collected $194,000, which is 84% of the entire pool. Insane.
"They've made the (betting) pools a mockery," Matties noted in a later post. Indeed, they have - the $1 exacta paid MORE than the $1 trifecta (first three finishers) in the following race.
The assumption is that late excata $$ came from a CAW player (the random amount $8200 is a good sign). They could have been covering bets they had already placed. These CAWs can make crazy bets like this because they get massive rebates from the tracks, sometimes up to 10%. That means they can afford to lose more over the long haul, because they get more money back from the tracks in rebates. But it impacts the retail player like me, just firing away in his basement on a Saturday afternoon.
What should be a $60 exacta pays just $23 - how many times can you see something like that and keep investing your time and money in the game? Brutal, brutal, brutal.
There's an easy fix: cut off the CAWs with 2 minutes to post in all pools, so we don't get extreme drops like this. The tracks could start doing that TODAY if they wanted. So far, they haven't.
"Well, don't bet then!" you're yelling at your phone or laptop. Trust me, I'm betting much less than ever. But the game could be so much better if the sport (and the tracks) stopped giving CAW players so many advantages—rebates, tote access, lower takeout, etc. Hopefully, Dave continues to hammer the CAWs online because when he does, people take notice.
I'm out on exactas. Done. I love them, but I can't get an accurate price. The win pools in CA and NY are okay, with the CAWs blocked out with 2 minutes to post. This result at Aqueduct was a final wake-up call. If you hit it and only got $23, my apologies. It sucks, and you have every right to be pissed.
As for Saturday, yeah, I lost on the horses for the day. Thankfully, the entire Barstool Store is 20% off through Cyber Monday. That includes Dave's new Go Go Greys Stable gear. I bought myself one on Thursday night.
And I'll be in the store Christmas shopping again later today.