The Bills Dominance of the AFC East is Over at Last

There are two competing theories on how human history unfolds. The first is the so-called "Great Man" theory, which holds that it's all driven by singular figures of tremendous significance who mold and shape events to suit their needs. The opposing hypothesis is called "Trends and Forces," and it believes that these individuals, are caught up in the same ebbs and flows of societal change as the rest of us.  So for instance, Thomas Carlyle in the 1840s said, “The history of the world is but the biography of great men," citing examples like Napoleon. But in War and Peace, Leo Tolstoy argued that he was merely  a puppet of historical forces, the Napoleonic Wars were inevitable, and if he hadn't started them, somebody else would have.

Which brings us to the history of the AFC East, and the events that are unfolding before our eyes. Specifically last night when the Bills lost at Houston and fell two full games, plus a tiebreaker, behind in the division. A screencap is worth a thousand words:

Whether this snapshot of the past six seasons is a product of Josh Allen's Great Manness or the Trends and Forces of the Patriots losing their own Great Man in Tom Brady, is a great question. I'll let the scholars battle that one out. 

But what's not open for debate is the fact Buffalo's iron grip on the division is all but over. The loss dropped them to sixth in the playoff standings:

The Patriots have such a commanding lead that they could actually lose to the Bills and the Ravens, and still win the AFC East by taking care of their business against the Bengals, Dolphins and both New York teams. And of course could simply lock it up by beating Buffalo.

Which is not the insurmountable task it has been during their 5-year run of dominance. One, they've already beaten the Bills at Buffalo, and will get them at home in Week 15 after a bye. Two, the Pats broke them in that win at Orchard Park. After starting the season 4-0, they've gone 3-4. And have been a bad road team for a while, going 11-12 since the start of 2023. 

And they've watched the face of their franchise become a Less Than Great Man at times. Last week, Josh Allen was spectacular, with his second career 3-passing TD, 3-rushing TD game of his career. Or anyone else's career for that matter, since he's the only guy who's even accomplished it. 

But last night, he got outplayed by Davis Mills. Threw two more picks, tying him for third most in the league with 9. 

And got the benefit of explosive plays in the run game and special teams:

… otherwise Buffalo would've had their doors blown off. 

Meanwhile, Allen has been surpassed in every statistical category by the quarterback whose team is now leading the division. (Except INTs. Drake Maye only has 5.) Making the debate over whether the Patriots are back on top where they belong due to having a Great Man, or if this is Trends and Forces at work, even more intriguing. 

All we know for sure is that Buffalo had a nice run. Five seasons of dominance. The Bills Mafia has a half-decade's worth of AFC East hats and shirts they can keep in the closet, but nothing else to show for it. And the natural order has been restored to the division at last. 

I hope they had fun while it lasted: