Horseplayers Have Been Getting Screwed And A Tweet From My Boss Dave Might Finally Make Things Better
Whether he knows it or not, this Friday night post from Dave on X.com is a big deal.
Yes, this will be a horse racing blog.
My boss, Dave Portnoy, is horse racing's most popular horseplayer. His posts about racing on X.com and IG are the most-viewed in the sport - he has major influence.
When Dave gives a local pizza place a great score (shoutout Joanie's in Chelmsford), the place has a line out the door for the next year.
When Dave gives out his weekly TD parlay, thousands of fans jump in to follow along.
If Dave says that "Caws have basically forced me to stop betting horses except the huge days."....bettors are going to take notice. And so should racetrack executives.
So, what does Dave mean by the 'Caws?' The goal of this blog is to explain them and the problems they're causing.
In the simplest terms, these Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) groups are teams of bettors that are betting A LOT of money on horse racing. And because they bet A LOT of money, they are afforded, let's call it VIP Access, from racetracks.
At most tracks, they're allowed to bet HUGE amounts of money right at the last second, just as the race is about to start. They do this because their algorithms take the odds of each horse into account, so they feel like they have the biggest advantage seconds before the race. They are allowed to send in hundreds of bets with just one click of a button. Tracks let them do this because they bet so much. Dave, Elio, me, and the rest of the human bettors have been betting much less over the years, and so these tracks now NEED these CAW groups to keep handle (the total amount of money bet on a race) up.
These groups also get significant rebates from the tracks - more than the average player - so they can afford to bet more and even lose more thanks to the rebates.
So how does that affect Dave, Elio, me, and the rest of the human bettors? I'll explain in a few pictures.
This is right before Race 6 on Friday at Keeneland. Note the price of the #1 horse there on the left - he's 8-1. If you bet him at 8-1, and he wins, you'll get $18 for every $2 you bet.
As the race starts, note the price on #1 drops from 8-1 to 7-1. That is not a crazy drop, by any means. Let's continue.
A few seconds later…
There's the late CAW money!!! SEVEN SECONDS LATER, WELL AFTER THE RACE STARTED…the #1 horse has dropped to 4-1. That should not happen. At tracks in New York and California, it doesn't happen because those tracks have told the CAW groups that they can only bet in the WIN pool up until two minutes before the race. You don't get drops like this on those tracks, resulting in a much more accurate win price.
But okay, maybe the #1 doesn't win. Perhaps this will not end up making you want to throw something at your TV in disgust.
Yikes. Not only does the #1 horse - the horse that went from 8-1 to 7-1 to 4-1 win…he ends up 3-1!
That's an almost 63% drop from the price the horse was going into the gate.
Even if you bet on the winner, you felt like you had money taken right out of your wallet. And it makes the weekend horseplayer feel like something shady is going on. Because instead of getting paid $18 for every $2 you bet to win, you got just $8.72.
That sucks. And it could be avoided if Keeneland cared more about the human bettor. Instead, they cater to the CAWs.
I'll use sports betting here for a second. Let's say you bet the Patriots as a +300 money-line underdog. The Pats win, and then you find out that because a bunch of big bettors fired late on the Pats, you're only getting paid like the Pats were +120. AFTER you bet and AFTER they win. If that happened enough, you'd probably stop betting - that's what's happening with horse racing.
So, what's the fix? Racetracks across the country should agree that, from now on, the CAW groups are locked out of the WIN, EXACTA, TRIFECTA, and SUPERFECTA pools, two minutes before the race. They could do this TOMORROW if they wanted to. It would not only stop the terrible optics of the example above, but it would also create less volatility in the other pools, like exactas.
So far, only NY and CA tracks have made the move, and that's just in the WIN pool. To their credit, NY did this years ago.
Dave wants CAWs banned 100%- I just don't see that happening. But there should be WAY more restrictions. The game needs to level the playing field between the CAW teams and the regular players. Right now, it's comically tilted in the CAW's favor.
Here's the good thing - it's on Dave's radar. I was texting with an employee at a major track on Saturday, who was aware of Dave's tweet. My guess is their boss is aware, too. That can only help us as we try to get the game back to a place where it does not feel so…unfair, even to the folks who win - like the ones who bet on the #1 in the example above.
It's just not a fair playing field right now. Dave talking about it is a big step to create awareness, and I hope he continues to do so.
Me? I'm betting less than ever on horses. I've written and talked about this issue for two years at MutStack.com, trying to raise awareness.
Dave probably did more with his one tweet Friday than I could do in five more years. And that's a great thing for me and the rest of the horseplayers following along, getting excited for the Breeders' Cup.
But make no mistake, right now it's not a good time to be a horseplayer. Until we see some change with the advantages that CAWs have, it won't get better. And Dave and many, many others will continue to bet less and less.