Damian Lillard's Return Is Still Up In The Air After He's Officially Ruled Out For The Start Of The Playoffs

Thearon W. Henderson. Getty Images.

As the Bucks get ready to start their first round revenge series against the Pacers, in my opinion, they're a team where it's tough to get a read on just who exactly they are.

They enter the playoffs as the hottest team in the NBA, winning their final 8 games of the season. If you believe in momentum and playing your best basketball as you go into the postseason, there's reason for optimism there. Granted, this was the sample of teams during that stretch

Some good teams, some tanking teams, but as we know, wins all count the same. 

You also have Giannis playing some of the best basketball of his life, and finally, he enters the playoffs healthy, which wasn't exactly the situation MIL dealt with this time last season. At the same time, this is a Bucks team that was just 17-21 against teams .500 or better. They now need to rely heavily on Kyle Kuzma and Kevin Porter Jr, which is never an ideal place to be. All year long, they've floated around 11th-12th in terms of offense, defense, and net rating in a season filled with drastic swings. They'd go on a nice winning streak, then lose 4-5 in a row, then immediately bounce back and win a bunch in a row etc. Zero consistency as to what you could expect from a night to night basis. For example, before that 8 game winning streak, the Bucks lost 4 in a row and 6 of 8. It's just how their season has gone.

Now in Year 2 of the Dame/Giannis Experiment, a huge part of their playoff story is the health and availability of Dame. After being shut down in late March with blood clots, I think most people thought that meant his season was over. But as time went on, the Bucks continued to leave the door open for a potential return, which definitely changes their playoff ceiling. You certainly have to take them much more seriously with that duo on the floor, and heading into a tough series against the Pacers, I think most Bucks fans were hoping that all this positive reporting would result in a Shams bomb letting us all know that Dame was ready to roll.

Unfortunately, the opposite has happened

No matter who you root for, I think we can all agree that above all else, the Bucks and Dame need to do what is best for his overall health, playoffs be damned. If that means he's never quite ready to come back, so be it. If that means he's progressing well, and if the Bucks are able to extend their series and potentially win it that it means Dame's possible return could come later, then so be it.

But for the immediate short term? It's a bit of a bummer. I was hoping we'd get to see Dame in this matchup, given their recent history and bad blood between both sides. The challenge for the Bucks to advance as a 5 seed and make a deep run was already pretty big, and having to at least start the playoffs without Dame certainly makes an already tough task even tougher. To me, this is what makes Game 1 even more important. If there's ever a chance to steal a game and potentially extend a series, it's Game 1. As a 5 seed, winning one of the first two games on the road is your best chance to pull off the upset, and after this news, maybe you're able to catch the Pacers being complacent. Maybe they believe that without Dame, the Bucks stand no chance, and the next thing you know Giannis has 35/17/13 and the Bucks pull off the early win. That's not totally out of the question given how well Giannis is playing at the moment.

It should be noted that since Dame went out on 3/18, Giannis has kept the Bucks afloat with a 10-4 record overall, the 5th best offense, 18th best defense, and 10th best net rating. Again, you don't love having to rely more on KPJ or Kuzma to pick up the slack, especially against a high powered offense like IND, who is going to make you live in the 110s-120s in terms of a score. I think that's why most Bucks fans were hopeful that Dame would be back for this series, because even though he doesn't give you much defensively, if you need to get into a shootout with the Pacers, Dame definitely helps you stay attached.

The best case is probably finding a way to split the first two games, and push this thing as long as you can. Given the fact that we tend to see 2-3 day breaks in the first round, just because Dame isn't available to start the series does not mean he couldn't be back towards the back half given how things are spaced out. It's not like Shams just told us he's shut down for the entire playoffs, in fact it was the exact opposite. Now, these things are usually touch and go so that doesn't mean a Shams bomb like that won't happen, but if you're looking to spinzone this as a Bucks fan, just focus on splitting the first two games. 

Without Dame, given the Bucks' inconsistency all year and the age and limitations of their roster, it's hard to see the Bucks winning multiple playoff rounds all without homecourt. That's not just a Bucks thing, that would be true of pretty much any team who would be without their #2 option who is in their position. It's shitty for basketball fans everywhere who just want to see the best of the best play at this time of year, but as we know you simply cannot fuck around with blood clots. 

Hopefully he checks out OK, the Bucks are able to push the series and we get to see what things look like with Dame on the court. A IND/MIL series that already is loaded with drama, we as fans deserve to have the Dame element be a part of it. Without it, there's a strong chance it's yet another early exit for Giannis & Co barring something crazy.