Everything You Need To Know To Be Ready For Day 1 Of The NBA Play In Tournament
And just like that, welcome to Day 1 of the NBA's Play In Tournament.
It's a little wild we're already at this point of the season, as it feels like just yesterday we were kicking things off for another great year back in October. Since that moment, a lot of basketball has been played, the league had one of the more outrageous seasons in recent memory, and now the fun truly begins.
When the NBA announced the Play In idea, there was obviously some initial pushback. People hate change, they can be stuck in their ways, especially when it comes to sports, but honestly, these last few years have shown us that, actually, the Play In is a smashing success. While it doesn't stop tanking (nothing will), it sure as hell made the last few weeks of the regular season more interesting, especially the final day, given how close things were in the standings. Plus, the games are usually pretty great too, as everyone treats it like a playoff game.
Adam Silver has had his fair share of terrible ideas over the years, but I do not consider the Play In one of them. I personally love it. If you don't want to be involved in it, be better. If you think it's unfair that a 48 win team could have their season ended by a 38 win team, too bad. Be better and win the game. That's sports.
Today brings us the 7/8 matchups in both conferences (with 9/10 games tomorrow) so let's get you ready with everything you need to know for what should be a great night of hoops
Orlando Magic (7) vs Atlanta Hawks (8)
Head to head: Tied 2-2
Usually, when you look at these matchups, the games are spread out over the course of the season so there's not always much you can take away from the season series in the event the rosters change. With these two teams, all 4 of their games came after the trade deadline, so for the most part, their battles have been a pretty good reflection of what we'll see today. By their first meeting on 2/10, the trades for ATL were complete, Jalen Suggs was already out for the Magic etc, so it gave us a good idea of how these two versions stack up against each other.
No team really blew out the other, with the largest margin of victory coming on the final day of the season when the Hawks won by 12. It wouldn't be crazy if you considered this a Dead Man Walking game, as the winner gets rewarded with a first round matchup against the defending Champs and should the loser survive their second game, their reward is a 64 win #1 seeded Cavs team. That's a tough draw.
What makes this matchup so interesting is that these two teams are basically the exact opposite of each other.
With the Magic, you have one of the league's best defenses, even with all their injuries. They finished 2nd in the NBA this season with a 109.1 rating, and they do it by utlizing their size and physicality that can make like hell for opposing scorers. They led the NBA in opponent's points per game at just 105.5, and that's important because their offense is legitimately disgusting. On that end of the floor, the Magic ranked only 27th in offense while being 28th in TS%. They ranked dead last in 3P% at just 31.8% as a team. In 2025, if you're going to be that poor offensively, you NEED to be elite defensively, which the Magic are.
On the flip side, you have the Hawks. Since the trade deadline, so the version we're going to see today, they ranked 6th in the NBA in offense and 5th in TS%, 4th in 3P% and 9th in 3PM. Their issue is defensively, where they've ranked just 20th since the trade deadline and 26th in opponents' points. They do have a defensive disruptor in Dyson Daniels, who has had one of the more ridiculous individual defensive seasons for a wing player in recent NBA history, but he can't do it alone.
So it begs the question, in a Play In game where a win gets you in, what would you rather have? A dogshit offense but an extremely elite defense, or a pretty damn good offense with a sneaky terrible defense? Remember, this isn't about winning 4 out of 7, it's just about winning a single game.
We know the Magic are going to rely heavily on their isolation offense and shot creation from both Paolo and Franz. The good news is they're both pretty damn good at that, especially against ATL
Defensively, the Hawks are around the 55th percentile in terms of isolation defense. Dyson Daniels you figure eliminates one of these scoring options, or at the very least makes it tough as hell, but that's going to be the challenge today for the Hawks. What other perimeter defender is going to be able to make a defensive impact? They already have to worry about Trae being hunted, so can Terrance Mann provide some resistance? Is Zaccharie Risacher ready for that challenge? Or Caris LeVert? As we see all over the NBA, if you can't stop wing-oriented offenses on the perimeter, you're going to have some issues.
The Hawks meanwhile, can hurt you in a variety of ways offensively. They can hurt you in P&R, they can spread you out and make your size guard in space, and unlike the Magic, they can bury you from deep. This spot isn't all that unfamiliar for Trae Young, who you could make the case will be the best player on the floor in this game
He's a player who I would say is built for the pressure moments and the big stage. We've seen him do it year after year, the man has zero fear. That matters in a game like this because for the Hawks to win this game, they're going to need Trae to carry. It's his job to bend the defense, force rotations, and let the Hawks shooters catch a rhythm.
Both teams are right next to each other in the top 10 in terms of OREB, so that'll be another interesting battle to watch. Given how poor the Magic shoot, they're going to have their fair share of OREB opportunities. At the same time, part of what makes the Hawks tough is that they have two centers who are relentless as hell on the offensive glass. Both Capela and Okongwu have a knack for finding the ball late in games to secure massive 2nd chance points.
The beauty of this matchup is something is going to have to give. Each teams' strength matches up with the other team's strength, so on paper we should have ourselves a very entertaining battle. I tend to lean ORL slightly if only because the best way to fix a bad offense is to go up against a poor defense, and the Magic have been shooting the ball better as of late, living around 36% from deep since March 1st. If you pair that type of efficiency with their elite defense, it could be enough to get them through.
Golden State Warriors (7) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8)
Head to head: GS won 3-1
Never, ever let anyone tell you that NBA regular season games don't matter. It's one of the biggest lies you hear every season when it comes to the NBA, and it couldn't be further from the truth. They all matter. How do we know this? Well, you could make the case that the only reason the Warriors are even in this position in the first place is because of this shot
Sure, losing to the Clippers on the final day of the season is also a pretty big reason why the Warriors are in that spot, but that game wouldn't have even mattered had GS not dropped that game against the Spurs last week.
The crazy part is prior to the trade deadline, the Warriors were in the Play In. Then they brought in Butler, went 23-8, which was the 3rd best record in the entire league to end the season, and they still ended up in the Play In. That, is quite the kick to the dick. At the same time, they have no one to blame but themselves. They had their chance against LA, they had their chance against SA, they lost at home to the Rockets at the beginning of the month. Back to back losses to ATL/MIA at the end of March, if you screw around like that in the Western Conference, it's going to put you in the Play In.
The good news, is the Warriors have Steph Curry. I'm a firm believer in that it is much better to be in a position like this while having Steph Curry as opposed to being tasked with stopping Steph Curry. Let's not forget, Steph just went for 52 points two weeks ago while facing the Grizzlies
So while this technically is a team in the Play In, we're not talking about your typical 7 seed here.
Since the deadline, GS is 3rd in the NBA in +/-, their FTA have skyrocketed to 3rd in the NBA (thanks Jimmy!), defensively they're the best defense in the NBA with a 109 DRTG. They have the 3rd best overall net rating over their last 31 games of the season, the list goes on and on.
Given the Warriors have hopes of making a deep run, there's a massive difference for them between playing the Rockets in RD1 and then potentially playing OKC. This isn't like in the East where your reward for winning this game is the Champs. In the West, it results in what in theory, is the easier playoff path. Given the run they've been on with this new version, combined with the season success they've had against MEM, I can't see GS losing this game. This is why you have Steph. It's why you traded for Jimmy. Unless it turns out they're all giant frauds, this should be a game they win with relative ease.
Having said that, that's the beauty of the Play In. One bad night is all it takes. Maybe Steph is cold. Maybe Jimmy lays an egg. Maybe the 3PAs don't drop for whatever reason. But honestly, that type of prayer is probably the Grizzlies' best shot.
It's no secret that the Grizzlies have been sliding. Once upon a time, they were a top seeded team,but then the losses started to mount, they fired their coach out of nowhere and really haven't responded. This isn't exactly what I would call entering the playoffs with momentum
It's not like the Grizzlies don't have talent. They do. That's partially what makes them so confusing as to why they aren't better than their record shows. Injuries play a part sure, but this is a team that has been complete dogshit against good teams this season. The Grizzlies finished just 14-25 against teams .500 or better this year, which is the 2nd fewest wins of any top 10 seed in the West.
Aside from beating anyone good, their other problem is turnovers. They rank 24th in TOV% which is an issue because GS is the 4th best team in the NBA at causing them. In terms of points off TOs, the Grizzles rank 28th in the NBA. Their self-inflicted wounds are the biggest reason in my opinion for their struggles, so in a sense this is setting up to be a recipe for distater. The one thing you CANNOT do against a Steph Curry team is be careless with the basketball. That, means death.
So just add it all up. One of the best defenses in the NBA since the deadline, who is awesome at forcing TOs, is going up against one of the worst ball security teams in the NBA who has not been able to beat anyone good all year long. That feels like a tall task for MEM, especially since they are also a team that looks like a group with a broken spirit. I suppose anything can happen given they do have the talent, but I fear this is more of a matchup problem that they don't really have an answer for.
All I know is with all the parity in the league this season, tonight should be a perfect appetizer for the Playoffs. The star power is there, we have contrasting styles, a team with title hopes, it all adds up to chaos. It's simple win, and you're in. Lose? And your season is on life support. It doesn't get much better than that.