The Stage Is Set For An Absolutely Chaotic Final Day Of The NBA Regular Season
One of my favorite days on the NBA calendar is easily the last day of the regular season. Not just because it means we're about to kick off the Play In/Playoffs, but also because I love how all the games start at the same time. It's the ultimate day for chaos, and given how close things are in the standings the fact that the majority of the Western Conference won't be figured out until the completion of Game 82 is fantastic drama
In the East, the only thing left to determine is the Play In results, so for all the Eastern Conference games that tip off at the same time tomorrow, those games are mostly about staying healthy and letting your backups get some run in. Still fun, but not quite the drama I'm talking about in this blog.
But the West? Look at seeds 4-7. If you want chaos, well then here you go. You could make the case that the entire Western Conference playoff bracket is going to be shaped by what happens tomorrow night. The playoffs are all about matchups, and your reward for a great regular season could very well end up being a matchup that could end your playoff run before you even get it off the ground.
If you're more of a chart guy, the scenarios will make your head spin
After the Nuggets took care of the sliding Grizzlies last night, that secured MEM's spot in the Play in. Who they face, is anyone's guess at this point.
On the final day of the season, we have:
Nuggets vs Rockets
Warriors vs Clippers
Timberwolves vs Jazz
One would assume that, given the Rockets have secured their 2 seed, this will be a rest game for them. They gain nothing by playing anyone of substance in that game so why even risk any potential injury. For the Nuggets, that's why last night's win was so massive. They probably have the second best chance to avoid the Play In, but it's not as if their first round matchup would be a cakewalk if they finished 4-6.
The Warriors and the Clippers battle is the one that's going to be must watch for me. Few teams in the entire league are playing as well as the Clippers are at the moment (W7), Kawhi is healthy, Harden is playing great, Zubac has taken a legit leap, and I don't think you're crazy if you suggest the Clippers could be one of the sleeper teams in this conference. If you assume DEN will take care of a resting Rockets team, then this matchup is more about positioning. Neither team can punt the game for a favorable matchup given the Timberwolves are right there trying to get out of 7th, and seeing as how they're playing the tanking Jazz, it's likely that the loser of GS/LAC enters the Play In.
Imagine one of GS/LAC loses that 7/8 game but win the next Play In round? That means OKC in Round 1 could be seeing a healthy Kawhi & Co or a Steph & Co Warriors team that has been among the best in the NBA since the trade deadline. Maybe they get through that series anyway, but that's a brutal first round matchup.
On the flip side, settling in 6th means you get a date with LeBron and Luka. That may not be the worst thing in the world if LeBron just re-injured his groin last night, but that's not exactly an easy matchup either. A Battle of LA would be fun, but so would Steph vs LeBron.
What if the Wolves are th ones who end up in 5th? How do you think the Nuggets would feel about that being their first round matchup? I'm not sure if you know this, but the Wolves have won 6 straight in that matchup dating back to last playoffs.
Considering we're talking about four teams (DEN, LAC, GS, MIN) that all have enough talent and experience to make deep playoff runs, I don't know how anyone couldn't be excited for this final day of the season. This to me is why the Play In is such a success, it makes all these games matter. If we were under the sold system, there wouldn't be as much of an issue if someone dropped to 7th. But now, one or two bad games could end your season. That's the type of drama I'm looking for in Game 82, especially when we're talking about teams that involve some of the biggest names and biggest stars in the entire sport.
If I had to guess how it shakes out? I think we get the first combo at the top of that chart
4. DEN
5. LAC
6. MIN
7. GS
Despite the Warriors playing at home, the Clippers are 3-0 against them this season. Granted, they haven't played GS since 12/27, so this version isn't exactly the one they faced a few months ago. I just think the Clippers are on such a roll right now, and with the Warriors not really playing anyone of substance lately (PHX/SA/POR) this will certainly be a different type of challenge. At the same time, they have Steph Curry, who is already talking about how this will feel like a Game 7, and he's one of the best Game 7 players ever. All it might take is one nuclear Steph game and that's certainly on the table as well.
The points is this is the beauty of the final day of the regular season with things being so jumbled up. Anything is possible. One poor shooting performance could drastically change your entire playoff path. For all the talk about how the NBA regular season doesn't matter, year after year we get to this part of the season and have this type of chaos when it comes to playoff seeding, so never let anyone tell you all 82 games don't matter.
It could be a random game in January or the last day of the regular season, it all matters. I say buckle up and get ready for the chaos, because it should be tremendous theatre.