After Sweeping The Celtics On The Season, The Thunder Have More Than Proven To Be A Worthy Challenger To Their NBA Crown

Brian Fluharty. Getty Images.

When the Celts began their 7 game homestand, I think if you asked fans if they would be OK/happy with a 5-2 stretch with games against CLE/DEN/LAL and a much improved POR, most would probably say yes. A 5-2 finish is a 58.5 win pace, which is essentially what the 2024-25 Celtics are on.

And yet here we sit, with the Celts completing the 7 game homestand 5-2 with wins over DEN/LAL and that pesky POR team and while the rational side of my brain looks at the big picture and says that's a fine stretch, I can't help but be annoyed by the two performances that bookend this homestand.

The opener, was the loss to the Cavs in which the Celts blew a 22 and 17 point lead. The finale was last night against the Thunder in what was another awesome game of basketball which we saw the Celts once again collapse in the 4th quarter.

In between those games were 5 different instances of building up a 22+ point lead, and 5 different instances of each game getting to within a handful of possessions late in the 4th quarter. 

So in the end, it's a bit of a mixed bag. Dropping both games at home against the two teams with the best records in the league certainly isn't ideal, especially because each came with 4th quarter collapses. But beating the Lakers and Nuggets, two other teams in the West many consider title contenders shouldn't be ignored. As a Celtics fan, it leaves you in a bit of a weird place. Annoyed that 5-2 could have very well been 7-0 with better execution, but at the same time I think there are valuable lessons to take away from each of the losses in terms of what it means moving forward should these teams face each other in a playoff series and how the Celts have to approach those matchups.

To me, that's probably my biggest take away. Even still you'll hear some try and discredit OKC/CLE, and I just don't get it. It's OK to admit there are really good teams out there! If OKC has proven anything to me through both of these matchups, it's that they have earned the right to be considered a worthy challenger to the Celtics NBA crown. That's just the truth.

For a team to fit into that category, history has shown us they need a multitude of things

1. You need length, size, and aggressiveness on the perimeter defensively both at the POA and wing

2. You need to be able to take and make 3s

3. You can't have a weak link defensively for the Celtics to target

4. You need a top end scoring threat that can go toe to toe with Jayson Tatum

If you look back at all of the teams in this era of Celtics basketball that have given the Celts issues, they all fit those categories. The 2023 Heat, the 2022 Warriors, the Wolves, the Thunder, they all fit that profile (the Heat had seals to target, but Spo's Dark Magic was great at hiding them). 

There's a reason the Thunder are having one of the greatest regular seasons in NBA history. Losing to them by 6 isn't some sort of disaster, but what I do take away is the Thunder are easily the toughest matchup problem of any potential title challenger, especially if Porzingis isn't going to be available for the matchup. They hit every one of those criteria, and the results on the court speak for themselves.

With that said, let's begin.

The Good

- In a matchup where the Thunder's historic defense was great at limiting the Celtics offense, one thing we can say through both games this season is that no matter what your personnel is or what defensive scheme you try, Jayson Tatum remains unguardable. Pretty much every Celtic not named Tatum has struggled against OKC and that defense, and it really shows how scheme-proof Tatum actually is

This was Tatum's 6th game of the season with at least 30/8/8. The only players in the entire NBA with more, are Jokic (17) and LeBron (7). Shoutout Dick Lipe for that one. On a night where you need your best player to be at his best, Tatum delivered. He more than did his part. Not just in terms of the production, but also the efficiency. I'll take 52% shooting on high volume against a historic defense every day of the week.

Against OKC for the season, Tatum is averaging 29.5/9.0/4.5 on 47.5/31% splits. As I said, he's scheme-proof.

I also don't even really put all that much stock into his 4 TOs either, considering one of them was on an iffy moving screen and the other was that bullshit travel that was clearly an defensive foul. So really, Tatum delivered in his production, his efficiency, and his ball security while going blow for blow against the suggested MVP. You could make the case that his numbers should have been even better if his teammates made an open jumper off his passes, as Tatum finished with 17 potential assists. 

Celts were a +4 with Tatum on the floor, and a -10 with him off during his 6 minutes of rest. You'll never believe this, but the Celts lost this game by 6. 

There were a lot of issues with how this game unfolded, but none of them really involved Tatum. He was great. 

- Few things in life annoy me more than wasting awesome Al Horford performances. You only get a handful of games during the regular season where Al empties the tank, and when that happens you HAVE to win those games. Wasting those minutes and that production should never happen, because in theory anything you get from Al at this stage should be the icing on the cake. It should never, ever, be what keeps you alive while on life support. That is not fair to him, he's a billion years old.

18/10/6 on 6-12 (6-12) with a steal and 2 blocks in his 33 minutes, Al is another guy who gets a complete pass for me in this game. He was tremendous. His shooting is what kept them attached when the entire roster outside of couldn't make a shot early in the 1st quarter, he made massive late game 3s, his defense was as solid as you can expect from a 38 year old, and that's all why it's so annoying to lose a game in which Al was so good.

To make things even more annoying, the only time the Celts have lost this season when Al had a game like this was on Christmas, when they lost to the Sixers by 4 and Al had 17 points and 5 3PM. Every other big Al performance (20 vs CLE, 16/10 vs MIA, 19/8 vs DEN, 14/9/4 vs LAL) came in wins. 

Al did his part, he stepped up with no KP and provided that 3rd/4th scoring and safety valve 3pt shooting while owning the glass and moving the ball. To let him down like this should bring shame upon everyone (outside of Tatum and DWhite).

- Which is our final player who gets a pass in this game, and that's Derrick White. Another player who you couldn't possibly have too many complaints about. He stepped up with a 22/8/5/3/3 on 7-14 (6-12) of his own in his 37 minutes, and given what a disaster Jaylen was it was pretty fucking massive that Derrick was able to elevate his play and fill that secondary scorer role. 

add in what he gave them defensively, especially late in the game in the 4th quarter guarding post players, it's annoying to waste another awesome DWhite performance as well.

I will say it was nice to see him get back to cashing his C&S 3s, seeing as how he was a brutal 6-26 from deep over his previous 3 games heading into last night, and that shot is going to be so important once the playoffs roll around because teams are going to do their best to trap Tatum once he has the ball. When that happens, Derrick needs to continue to take his open C&S 3PA with confidence like he did in this game, and shooting those at an acceptable clip is going to be key to their entire run. 

So that's really it. Tatum, Al, and DWhite were pretty much the only positive takeaways from this game. Against most teams in the NBA, their performances are enough to carry you to a win.

Against a historic regular season team that matches up well with you? It's not enough. The others cannot no show like they did in this loss.

The Bad

- Where do we begin? I suppose it's to be expected that all the discourse over this loss will be the Celts shooting 63 3PA, but to me that's just lazy. While sure, that number might shock some, the Celts 3pt shooting volume is what kept them alive in the 1st half. Without it, they get blown out. 

In the second half, you see 5-27 and on the surface that seems like way too many, but then you look closer and see that 21 of the 27 were either "open" or "wide open" looks. The Celts just happened to shoot 5-21 on those clean looks (23%). 

There is this narrative that the Celts "didn't make adjustments" once the 3s weren't dropping, but that simply isn't true. The Celts took the same amount of paint FGA in the 2nd half as OKC (14 vs 13) and outscored them in the paint 26-14. They did adjust and have more of an inside approach in the second half. The issue was even with that, the inability to make open looks from deep pretty much negated that emphasis in the paint.

Not only that, but you also have to acknowledge how OKC played defense. They packed their asses in the paint and lived with the results. Driving and generating open 3s is good process. With their length and size in the paint and at the rim, driving into traffic against OKC is easily the dumbest thing you could do, because that's how they generate live ball turnovers and points in transition. 

So if you find yourself complaining about 3pt volume, I'm not sure what to tell you. Pay attention I guess? Missing good looks does not mean you played with poor offensive process. It means you had poor execution. But as we know, any time the Celts lose a game and have a high 3PA number, it's all people will care about and they'll treat that as the "reason" the Celtics lost this game.

I don't know how else to say it. They did not lose because of 3pt volume.

- For pretty much the entire season, there's really only been one glaring red flag that has given me cause for concern. This team has a GLARING 4th quarter problem. I'm not sure how anyone could debate it if we're being honest. Even in their wins, it's a problem.

But in the losses? The Celtics are legitimately one of the worst 4th quarter teams in all of basketball, and that is not hyperbole.

In their 18 losses, the Celtics currently own the 25th ranked offense with a rating of just 105.1. They own the 29th ranked defense, with a rating of 129.4. Their -24.4 net rating in the 4th quarter is 30th in the NBA. Their TS% of 51.2% is 27th in the NBA.

Those include losses at home and on the road. In just the 4th quarter in losses at home?

11th ranked offense, 28th ranked defense, 28th ranked net rating, 21st net rating

This is impossibly bad for a team with so much talent. At home, one the road, it never seems to matter. When it comes time to execute and put teams away, the Celts have struggled all season.

So what did we get last night?

The Celts finished with a 100.0 ORTG / 120.0 DRTG / -20 net rating with a 49.3% TS%

As you can see, it was everyone. Best players, role players, they all struggled. Last night things started with the non-Tatum lineups unable to defend without fouling. The first 2 minutes of that 4th quarter were not foul baiting issues from OKC, the Celtics just fouled the shit out of OKC on every trip, putting them in the bonus for basically the entire quarter. 

That obviously becomes an issue once SGA returns and things get ticky tacky. That's how you allow 18 FTA in a single quarter. Not matching physicality and not defending without fouling is how you dig your own grave. 

When you look at how the Celts have performed individually in the 4th quarter in these losses, it's jarring

Brown: 41/25%

Tatum: 37/15%

White: 42/35%

KP: 23/18%

Jrue: 34/20%

Al: 30/29%

Pritchard: 43/33%

That's just not going to cut it. When you add in the wins, the 4th quarter production doesn't get all that better either 

Call me crazy, but these struggles keep pointing me back to the new rotation decision. Tatum playing entire 1sts (sitting start of the 2nd) and then entire 3rds (sitting the start of the 4th) feels like it's not really working. I think I'm at the point where I prefer the mid 1st sub / start the 2nd with the bench, and then the late 3rd sub so then he's out there to start the 4th.

It's not a case of the non-Tatum lineup's offense being bad. It isn't. It has a 124 ORTG on the season. The issue is more changing the calibration of when those lineups happen. I would much rather in a close game Tatum be on the floor to start the 2nd, help potentially build a little cushion, and then buy him 2 minutes of rest in the middle of the quarter. Too many times do we see a game be close heading into the 4th, but Tatum has to sit because he played all 12 minutes of the 3rd and the Celts start that quarter in a 6-2 or 8-2 hole. Against elite teams, that's how you lose.

In those first 2 minutes without Tatum on the floor, the Celts went 1-4. Jaylen missed a couple 3s, Payton missed a 3PA and Luke had a putback dunk. Meanwhile, the Thunder only made 1 FGM and yet pushed the lead to 5. 

Aside from the offensive issues that popped up in the 4th, we shouldn't ignore the lack of stops. After DWhite tied the game at 95, every time the Celts came down and scored, they immediately gave up a bucket to tie the game. There was no momentum stop, which you NEED to get at home in a close game like this. 

Derrick made a big 3, Isaiah Joe answered the next possession. Al made a big 3, Kenrich Williams answered the next possession. Every single time the Celts attempted to gain control, OKC had an answer. The once some shots rimmed out and the Thunder still found ways to execute, that was the game.

Again, it was 95-95 with 8:51 left. Thunder closed 23-17 and shot 46/42.9%.

- We all saw the inconsistent whistle. No need to harp on it. It is what it is. To me it's not about the fouls OKC were given, it's the fact that the Celts were not called the same way on the other end. In fact, they got the opposite whistle.

Annoying, but that's how it goes sometimes.

- In a game like this, the "others" need to step up and fill their role. We saw the OKC role players do just that, with Joe, Wallace, Williams etc all making their big time 4th quarter 3s. 

The Celts? They got nothing from Jrue/Hauser/Pritchard, with the trio going a combined 8-24 (4-20). Their secondary scoring is too important, and getting severely outplayed by the OKC role players ultimately proved to be a big part of why this game went the way it did.

They all had good looks, but you have to convert on those looks.

It was out latest example of the bench guys not really being playable against the best of the best, which has to be notable. We just saw something similar in the Cavs loss, and there is a recurring theme.

In both games against OKC, this was the production from those 3 guys

Jrue: 31/9%

Pritchard: 20/16%

Hauser: 22/22%

Add in the fact that Jrue can't really guard SGA, this is brutal.

The Ugly

- There's really no other place what might have been Jaylen Brown's worst game of the season. If it's not the worst, it's certainly up there. 

There's no showing offensively, but still making an impact defensively, as a rebounder, and playmaker. Sometimes you just don't make shots. It happens, but you can find a way to make a winning impact.

That is NOT what we got from Jaylen in this loss.

Not only was the production not there, his minutes were detrimental. It was a carbon copy of the 2023 ECF, and why someone like KP is so important for this specific matchup, just like he is vs those Heat teams. 

The inefficiency, the poor defense, the turnovers, it was about as clear cut a disaster of a performance as you could have, and seeing as how Jaylen is the 2nd best player on the team, these are the exact games you cannot struggle to this degree in. Jaylen has now been a non-factor in both OKC losses, and frankly it doesn't feel right to call it a non-factor.

It was more of a minus-factor if that makes sense. Did I just make that up? Maybe. But it's accurate. He played losing basketball last night, no two ways about it. 

Naturally people are going overboard with him as a result, but that's basically what happens any time Jaylen breathes. 

But the best players on the team are held to a higher standard. If Pritchard or Hauser or Jrue suck, that's annoying but they are also role players. Jaylen, has a much more important role on this team. When Tatum is doing his part and carrying his load, it is non-negotiable that Jaylen do the same. This isn't to say off nights can't happen, but on nights where you aren't shooting well, contribute in other areas.

As good as he is at guarding Luka, Jaylen struggled mightily guarding SGA, allowing him to shoot 4-5 from the floor with 12 points. He only finished with 5 rebounds in 37 minutes, and he didn't take a single FTA.

You hear all the time how unacceptable this is because Jaylen makes $300M, and I say who gives a shit about that? This performance would be unacceptable even if he made $10M a year. Bad basketball is bad basketball, regardless of your contract.

The good news I suppose is that Jaylen took ownership of his dogshit performance after the game which is nice, but it'd also be nice if he played better. Both things should be possible. 

So in the end, while it was a fun competitive game that showed how fun a potential Finals matchup could be, I can't help but feel mostly annoyed at yet another winnable game that the Celtics fumbled because of poor late game execution.