The Celtics Have Suddenly Turned Into The Worst 4th Quarter Team On The Planet And It Is Fucking Up Their Season
Billie Weiss. Getty Images.As the Celtics navigate their journey back up the mountain this season, it was always going to be different. To think that you are going to get different NBA seasons to be carbon copies of each other is simply not reality. It's why players and coaches always talk about how each new season is a new challenge and every journey up the mountain is different. They're right.
But different doesn't have to mean worse. It can just mean different.
I think it's important that as fans, you understand that. What we experienced in 2023-24 was a magical season. From top to bottom in every single aspect of their season, they were incredible. Pick anything you want, and the Celts were unbelievable at it. It was objectively one of the greatest seasons in NBA history. Fact, not opinion.
You get one of those seasons in your lifetime, if you're lucky.
Entering this season, their record is OK. They're on a 58 win pace and flirt with around a +10.0 point differential again (+9.5 after last night). They are now tied with OKC at 14-4 for the best road record in the NBA. Their 16 wins vs teams .500 or better are the most in the East. By all means, they are absolutely still the level of contender they were entering the year. Not winning the title would be a massive failure, that bar of expectations remains the same.
But what I think has to stop is treating the 2024-25 Celtics like they are the 2023-24 Celtics. What I mean by that is the circumstances around their season so far are different, and their production is different. I look at it like this, which helps explain what I mean.
The 2024 Celts season was essentially the 2017 KD Warriors season. One of the greatest seasons of all time (they had the 2nd best point differential ever at +11.96, Celts were 6th at +10.72). During the entire KD era, that was their one truly historic season. Wire to wire dominance unlike the league had really seen since the Jordan Bulls. That's what the Celts 2024 was.
This season for the Celts is what I would compare to the 2015 GS season. It's not quite to the level we saw in 2017, but still dominant. That team had a +10.1 point differential (sound familiar?) that settled into +9.63 once you add in the playoffs, which included a run to the title. That feels pretty similar right?
Granted that team won 67 regular season games which the 2025 Celts most likely aren't going to do, but the overall point is the same.
Just because they are not producing at their previous historic pace, does not mean they are any less of a contender or that there is some gigantic issue. The season they are currently having would be considered one of the better seasons in NBA history. At +9.5, that would be the 15th best point differentials ever. In the history of the NBA.
But here's the thing. Even if that's true, the quality of basketball we're seeing the Celtics play since around December 7th (8-7) has been complete dogshit. The shooting is horrific, the defense is extremely inconsistent, they continue to drop games on their home floor against inferior opponents, and their inability to not shit down their own legs once a game gets to the 4th quarter are real issues.
Now, whether you think this current rut is natural regression, a larger issue, the team still keeping some juice in the tank for the playoffs etc, in reality it's probably a combination of everything. I don't really care how a team "feels", I care about what and how they produce when they are on the court. That, is what matters.
And frankly, the basketball this team is playing stinks. Coming off their road trip 3-1 and feeling good, you drop a game against SAC without Fox as double digit favorites. How? Poor shooting, poor defense, and a horrific 4th quarter.
Be stubborn about that if you want, but those exact issues have turned into a trend. It's consistent in every single one of their 11 losses, especially during this 8-7 stretch.
It's OK to say the 2025 Celts are different from the 2024 Celts. That's normal and not even a big deal. What is not OK is the level of basketball we're seeing them play, which I can say with full confidence is not good enough for this team to get to where it wants to go.
With that said, let us begin.
The Good
- Whenever the Celts have a game like this that was very winnable before they ultimately choked it away with a disasterclass of a 4th quarter, I always feel weird even putting anything in this section.
Do I care that Jaylen bounced back and was efficient on his wy to 28 points including 9-11 from the FT line?
No, not really.
Do I care that KP's outside shot looked probably as good as it has all season (4-7) in his 22/10 performance in 29 minutes?
No, not really.
From the opening tip, this team did not come close to playing at an acceptable level on either end of the floor. Considering they had 2 days off, I also reject the whole "first game back from a long road trip" angle. Get out of my face with that. Being home and rested is enough to beat the Kings without their best player, even with them on a 5 game winning streak. I mean, what are we doing?
As you can tell, I'm rather annoyed. Let's just move on to the real and more important parts of this blog.
The Bad
- Where do we even begin? Let's start with the very first quarter. If these recent losses have told us anything, it's that all the weirdos who cry and cry and cry about 3PT volume and demand the Celtics take more 2s instead of 3s don't know what the fuck they are talking about.
If you look at a consistent trend in all of these losses, you will find that repeatedly, the Celtics are being outshot behind the line. Not just in terms of percentage, but also in terms of volume. Welcome to 2024.
The first quarter was a perfect example of this. The Kings came out firing, taking 18 3PA in their first 30 FGA. On the flip side, the Celts focused primarily on 2s early, winning the points in the paint battle 14-10. Did that matter? Of course not, because they were already behind the 8 ball in terms of 3pt shooting. The quarter ended 8-4 3PM, and the Kings found themselves with 34-27 lead.
This was our first taste of everything those of us who understand Mazzulla Ball and the NBA in 2024 have been saying since last season. In today's NBA, you cannot trade 2s for 3s. You have a choice. Either you find a way to match your opponent's volume, or if you want to focus on 2s, you have to take away their 3PA. You cannot focus on 2s and not limit 3PA, that is how you get Mazzulla Ball'd.
When did the game turn in the Celts favor? Look at the 2nd and 3rd quarters. In both of those frames, the Celts matched the 3PT volume. 12 vs 11 in the 2nd and 6 vs 9 in the 3rd. Their defense tightened up and it gave them control of the game about midway through the 3rd quarter.
So what happens in the 4th? They once again go back to trading 2s for 3s. In the first 6 minutes of the quarter when the Kings pulled away, look at the shot charts!
"The Celtics need to take more 2s! All they do is chuck 3s!"
Do you morons see the light now? Trading 2s for 3s is a losing formula, especially when you are not playing a lick of perimeter defense in terms of limiting the opponent's 3PA. It's pretty obvious that when the Celts play how all these boomers want them to play, they are a lesser version of themselves. If your opponent is taking and making 3s, you HAVE to match their volume. It's simple math.
In no world should the Celtics finish a game in which they are outshot 47-41 from behind the arc. To make matters even worse, they were also outproduced in the paint, despite taking the same 37 FGA. The Celts missed 17 FGA from the paint in this game, so it's not even like passing up 3s for 2s was all that effective.
- As fans, we love to talk about how the top 8 rotation has barely played together, and it's actually a positive that the Celts have been so good despite their lineup inconsistency.
That's all fine and good, but here's the thing. We can't talk about how good they are with the top 8, if the top 8 is going to play dogshit basketball.
The facts are that so far this season, the normal starting lineup has been drastically worse than what we saw last season
Jrue/White/Brown/Tatum/KP: 8 games / 116 minutes
ORTG: 107.5
DRTG: 117.5
Net rating: -10.0
TS%: 55.3%
Just to help put that into perspective, here's that same group last season
ORTG: 120.3
DRTG: 109.4
Net rating: +11.0
TS%: 62.7%
We're currently not even in the same galaxy let alone the same ballpark. Of course some of that is KP getting his way back into shape and guys building that rhythm, but it's also due to shooting and defensive regresison across the board.
How did this lineup perform last night? Offensively, not terrible. A 121.4 ORTG and a 67% TS%. You take that. But defensively? A disastrous 121.4 DRTG. Given all your best defenders were active, that's pathetic.
Part of the top 8 being active is it means the Tatum + bench lineups can return, a group that usually was awesome together. In this game? They were a complete disaster
Pritchard/Hauser/Tatum/Horford/Luke: 10 minutes
ORTG: 61.9
DRTG: 85.7
Net rating: -23.8
TS%: 34.4%
To me, this grouping is what ultimately lost the Celts this game. Getting zero production from your shooters with Pritchard (1-7) and Hauser (1-4) combining to go 2-11, Horford going 1-4 and then you had Tatum with 8 total turnovers, 5 of which came in the 3rd quarter with that group.
If the starters are struggling, the bench cannot also struggle like this. Especially at home.
During this 15 game stretch (8-7) the bench is shooting 39/26% in those 7 losses. In the 5 losses that have come at home, they are shooting 41/27%. That is almost unconceiveable, but it's the truth.
If you want to know why things may feel different, this is pretty high on my life. The shooters have simply not been able to consistently make shots.
- On both ends of the floor, I'd say this was one of the worst combined efforts from Jrue/Derrick. Absolutely nothing offensively (3-12, 1-8), a combined -27 and zero perimeter defense. Did it feel like they provided any sort of resistance on the perimeter in this game? Sure didn't. How did you like that 4th quarter defense in terms of limiting SACs 3PA. Pretty awful if you ask me.
It's pretty hard to win games when your starting backcourt is that much of a negative on both ends of the floor. It doesn't happen often, but it's not surprising the Celts lost a game where both Derrick and Jrue threw up stinkers.
- A completely unacceptable performance around the margins. SAC killed the Celtics on the glass 56-32, with Sabonis himself accounting for 28. He had 8 OREB by himself, which matched the Celts total AS A TEAM.
In terms of TOs, guess what! Another high total (15), led to another loss. Almost like taking care of the ball is important! And for all the talk about how Tatum needs the ball more and the Celtics need to play through him more and blah blah blah, there's one important aspect of that. He has to take care of the ball! Shit like this cannot happen
The Celts were up 72-63 with around 6:51 left in the 3rd quarter with this lineup on the court. All momentum gone, simply because of ball security and a lack of focus.
To make matters worse, aside from the 5 TOs down the stretch, Tatum also played all 12 minutes in this quarter. That meant he was on the bench to start the 4th, which was an even bigger disaster. I get the regular season is for experimenting with different lineups and rotations, but I wonder if their recent stretch of play has warranted an adjustment here.
Instead of Tatum playing the entire 1st quarter and entire 3rd quarter, maybe we go back to the rotation split we saw last year? Because whatever mix we're currently seeing is not really providing the level of good consistent play this team should be having.
- So far this season, KP is shooting just 30% in the paint (non-RA) and 30% from the midrange in the 4th quarter. Overall, he has 34/22% splits in the final frame.
Exploiting mismatches is important, having a diversified offense is important, but part of that equation is the players actually producing. Trading 3s for KP 2s only for him to miss all his 2s isn't exactly what I'm looking for in those spots.
The Ugly
- There's no other way to say it. A game in which Tatum finishes with 8 TOs and 5 FGM while only taking 13 FGA is arguably his worst overall performance of the season.
When he returned in the 4th (just 4 minutes), he did not take a single FGA. It was all mostly cardio minutes. I know his stans will put that all on Mazzulla and every other player on the floor, but cut the shit. It was pretty clear from the opening minutes that Tatum wasn't all that engaged, his efficiency early was poor, especially around the rim, and he was extremely careless with the ball at a time when the Celts should have been gaining separation.
Not the end of the world, everyone has stinkers, but this was a very frustrating Tatum performance.
- What the fuck is this
Another game blown all because this team cannot execute in the 4th quarter. I called it out on Dec 20th and it remains true to this day. The biggest problem the Celts have this season is their 4th quarter defense
Hmm, what did we see? Kings shot 60/72% with 8 3PM. Love that!
Here's the bigger issue. This is not new. In fact, this is the root of nearly all the Celtics 11 losses on the season
On the season, they are in the bottom 3rd of the league. Over these last 15 games? They are legitimately the worst team in the NBA in their losses once the game gets to the 4th quarter. The fact that 5 of those 7 losses have come at home, I mean what the fuck.
There is too much talent and experience on this team to be playing like this with games on the line entering the final frame. NBA games are 4 quarters long, what's so hard to understand about that? We now live in a world where this team gives you zero confidence they can finish a game strong, which is something that should NEVER be said about this group. In fact, that was partially what made them so good last season. They finished games.
I want you to look at those numbers again. This is the real issue the 2024-25 Celtics are facing. Not how many 3s they take, not health, not coaching, none of that shit.
4th quarter execution on both ends of the floor has been horrendous in every single one of their losses. It's not exactly rocket science. They are not slamming the door shut in these moments, instead going with the opposite approach of being completely terrible on both ends of the floor.
Shooting, defense, ball security, rebounding, it's all been awful. Quick question, does this look like winning basketball to you? Does this look like a team that is locked in and playing with the right approach? How would you rate this execution?
This, like much of the play we saw in the 4th quarter, is losing basketball. Don't be surprised when playing losing basketball loses you games. That's why it's called losing basketball.
Until the Celts snap out of this funk in the 4th quarter, these bad losses are going to continue to happen. At the time of a game where execution on both ends becomes most important, the Celts have been at their worst. That's not exactly a winning formula.
- The collective shooting rut this team is in is pretty fucking insane. Another sub 30% night from behind the arc, this has now been the case in 6 of their last 7 losses, and something that's popped up about 5 or 6 times since Christmas.
The offense is still generation plenty of clean looks, but nobody, and I mean NOBODY is knocking them down. Part of the game of basketball is ya know….making shots. Where that's been the last month is anyone's guess.
Now 6.5 back of CLE, the 1 seed at this point is most likely out. The Cavs barring some sort of injury are playing at a pace in which they should cruise to that top seed. What's now most important is the Celts making sure they check the 40/20 box, which now requires them to go 13-8. If they don't check that box, NBA history says nothing else matters.
Keep playing like this, and that's going to be much closer than it probably should have been when this team was 21-6 a few weeks ago. Another West Coast trip is on the horizon, so dropping these games at home (now their 7th), is asking for trouble and certainly not what any of us expected to see.