At The NBA's Midway Point, Meet The 3 Teams In The League That Have Played Their Way Into True Title Or Bust Status

Now that we're basically at the midway point of the NBA season, it's the perfect time to a follow up blog of I like to do at pretty much every quarter of the season.

To me, the first quarter of the season is about identifying trends, then the next quarter (what we're in) is about confirming those trends. Up next is when everyone starts trying for real on a consistent basis post All Star Break, followed by the last quarter where everyone is sitting while preparing for the playoffs.

As a quick reminder, these were some of the trends that were called out in that blog during the first quarter of the season

1. The Rockets were ready for their leap....confirmed

2. The Clippers actually weren't dead post Paul George....confirmed

3. Franz Wagner was a legit 1B....confirmed

4. Jalen Williams was a small ball 5 extraordinaire....confirmed

5. Jared McCain was the ROY....confirmed (but now injured and out for the year)

6. The Pistons and Spurs, sneaky not terrible.....confirmed

All of those early season trends proved to be real, which is partially what has made this season so fun to watch.

Now that our sample size has grown substantially, it's time to take the pulse of the league at the midway point, now that pretty much everything we've seen from the first stage of the year has had the opportunity to show us if that was real or fugazi.

For this blog, I'd like to focus on the most important area. Who are the true title contenders? For me, this is always broken down into tiers

1. Title or bust

2. Good enough to win

3. Making a Finals is good enough

Title contention is not the same for everyone. For example, a team like the Nuggets this year does not have "title or bust" expectations to me. Between their roster and their overall play, they are a tier below. They are someone who fits the second tier. Where if they lose it's not some sort of gigantic choke job (like last year was), but if they make the Finals they are good enough to have the expectations of winning. This is a group that also includes teams like MIL, NYK, DAL etc.

If we're talking about which teams face the ultimate pressure of being a tile or bust level of contender, this season has shown us that 3 teams and 3 teams only fit this description. Teams where not being the last team standing would be a historic fumble. It's an honor to be considered in this tier, and something that should be worn as a badge of honor from those fanbases. To be in this group means your play has elevated you to this set of expectations. It's extremely hard to do and why there are so few who fit that description

Those teams are very clearly

1. The Boston Celtics

2. The Oklahoma City Thunder

3. The Cleveland Cavaliers

Boston Celtics

This one doesn't need any explanation. As the defending champs, anything other than a repeat is a complete choke job. No different from their 2024 expectations, given their roster and caliber of play this season, the expectation is title or bust. Granted that's how it's been for the Celtics for this entire decade, but now that they actually won it things certainly do not change. That title doesn't remove their expectations, it heightens them now that we know they can do it. 

So instead, let's focus on the other two teams because they have been BY FAR the story of the first half of the season.

Oklahoma City Thunder & Cleveland Cavaliers

For those who may not have been paying all that close attention so far this season, I think we need to take a minute and talk about what we are currently witnessing when it comes to the Thunder and Cavs. Not only are they a combined 61-9 and are riding a combined 25 game winning streak (and they play tomorrow), we are currently witnessing two of the most dominant seasons in NBA history. That is fact, not opinion

Add in the fact that the Thunder are having arguably the greatest defensive season any team has had in NBA history, you can understand why both teams have joined the Celtics in the title or bust tier. Their play this season has warranted it. 

As you can also see, every single team in NBA history that has had a season like OKC/CLE is currently experiencing has gone on to win the NBA title. Obviously, between OKC/BOS/CLE, only one of those teams who find themselve on that graphic can win.....which is AWESOME. That's the type of drama everyone should be in favor of. We're either going to see one of the greatest teams of all-time cap off a historic season, or we're going to see multiple historic choke jobs. It doesn't get much better than that if you ask me.

What this first half of the season has told us is the basketball that both OKC and CLE are playing is very real. I know there are some out there who may still try and discredit what CLE is doing, but to anyone who has watched them play this season, you know how silly that would be. They check every single box of a team that would find themselves in a title or bust tier

- Elite record

- Elite record vs teams .500 better

- Should smash the 40/20 rule

- Historic point differential

- Incredible balance on both ends of the floor

- Top to bottom elite shooting with all their rotation players

- Undefeated against teams under .500

The list goes on and on. Overlook them if you wish, but don't be surprised when they go out and beat your favorite team. This is not a 2 week sample, we're at the midway point. They're for real as any team could possibly be at this stage of the NBA season.

With OKC, you also factor in that someone who many consider to be the MVP also plays for them. I got some pushback that OKC shouldn't have to face title or bust expectations this year, and I find that bizarre. If you are the #1 seed in back to back seasons in the West, on a team that is on pace to win 70 games, has the best defense in NBA history and the MVP to go along with the 4th best point differential ever......you have the expectation to win the title. 

Are they maybe ahead of schedule? I guess? SGA is 26, not 23. They had a run as a #1 seed last year and fell short, added pieces, and are now back having one of the most dominant seasons ever. Any other team in NBA history that has all of that, has title or bust expectations. 

To help put into perspective just how ridiculous it is that BOS/OKC/CLE all have a +10.0 or higher point differential, the NBA has never had a season in its history where 3 different teams all had a double digit scoring margin. Barring something crazy in terms of injury, there are no signs that any of BOS/OKC/CLE will fall below +10.0 once the season ends. Usually, an NBA season gives us 1 team that does it, and that team is the overwhelming favorite. The fact that we have 3 is rather insane. 

What makes this all so exciting is that two of these teams will have their fate decided before the Finals even take place. To think that either the defending champion who is having one of the better seasons in NBA history or a Cavs team that's on pace to win nearly 70 games and have a top 6 point differential ever might not make the Finals is crazy to think about. Whoever is the team that ultimately falls short, had a historic choke job. That's how things work.

Now, maybe you think if someone like OKC lost to either BOS/OKC in the Finals than that wouldn't be a choke job. To that, I would disagree, especially if they too win close to 70 games, have a historic point differential and the supposed MVP. When you are in this tier of title contenders where it's title or bust, you don't get credit for making the Finals and losing. 

See: Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics in 2022 Finals. 

The Thunder aren't a surprise 5 seed who would have made a run like the Mavs last year. They aren't an underdog 8 seed like the Heat were. They are a historically dominant team with a guy many think is the MVP as well as a team that many consider the best team in the NBA with the best overall roster in the league coached by the previous COTY.

Once you get to that level, the expectation is to win the whole thing.

All we can hope for is all of these teams remain as healthy as possible come the playoffs. We as fans deserve to see what that looks like after watching how dominant all three have been through the midway point of the year.