When The Celtics Are In A Rut They Sure Do Play Some Disgusting Basketball

Julio Aguilar. Getty Images.

You would have thought the Celtics learned their lesson with how they treated the second half of the Bulls loss earlier this week. Let me ask you if this sounds familiar. After leading for most of that game, they completely fell apart in the 4th quarter with one of their worst two way performances of the season. Couldn't make a shot and couldn't get a stop to save their lives.

The Bulls played harder, they played smarter, and they executed better.

Feels familiar right?

Before we begin, I'm not really interested in the "The Celtics didn't have Jayson Tatum" stuff. Yeah, no shit. But guess what? The Magic didn't have their two best players and best bench player. Shit happens. I reject the notion that just because this group didn't have Tatum in the lineup that they are incapable of playing up to their standard. To me, that's such a cop-out. I also reject the "they would have won with Tatum" stuff, because you don't apply that same logic to Paolo/Franz. Maybe they would maybe they wouldn't, but the fact of the matter the Celtics DID have enough talent available to win this game, the issue was just that the talent did not execute. 

What also annoys me about that response is it also discredits the very simple fact that the Magic play the Celtics tough, including even with Jayson Tatum in the lineup. In the Joe Mazzulla Era, the Magic are 5-2 against the Celtics in their last 7 meetings. They have the combination of physicality and perimeter defense that a team needs if they want to give the Celts issues, which is what the Magic have done. It's OK to acknowledge that there are other good teams out there! I see the same shit trying to discredit what the Cavs are currently doing and I don't understand that either. Good teams outside of the Celtics exist, and it's a reminder that if this team fucks around they are more than capable of losing a game they have no business losing.

I also reject the "who cares this was a random game in December, just get me to the playoffs" mindset. Fuck that. Every dribble matters. The fact that the Celts operated with the exact opposite mindset last year is why they were so good. There are no skipping steps on the way up the NBA mountain. 

This isn't to say the sky is falling or any loss during the regular season is some sort of referendum on the Celtics as a team or their system or any of that other doomsday act. You should be past that shit (hopefully).

But what this game ultimately reminded us is that if this team does not play a full 48 minutes, they can get their ass beat. If they don't play the right way, they can get their ass beat. If they can't execute, they will get their ass beat. Regardless of who is on the floor.  

With that said, let's comb through the dead body

The Good

- Should be a pretty short section today, with really the only thing worth putting here is probably Jaylen's night

35/9/4/3 and a +6 in his minutes in a 4 point loss, it's not as if Jaylen was perfect (we'll get to his TOs), but on a night with no Tatum against an aggressive defense, that's where you need Jaylen to step up and not only produce offensively, but be efficient while he does it. Considering he finished 15-29 and had the shot chart below, I'd say Jaylen did his job

On a night when nobody could make a three (Jaylen included) he did what everyone said they wanted and continued to be aggressive and switch things up by attacking the paint. Was he perfect? Heavens no. But he certainly gave enough in that role to win this game, which is what you're looking for in a non-Tatum game. 

Before the entire roster had a collective lobotomy at halftime, Jaylen was also one of only guys in the first half who was defending with any sort of ball pressure which played a big role in why the Magic struggled to score in the first 24 minutes. Why he (and the team) could not replicate that for the second 24 minutes is a mystery we'll probably never solve.

- There were flashes of solid play from the Stock Exchange in the first half, but there's no need to try and add more shit to this section. It would just be forcing it considering the Celts largely played like ass. Let's move on.

The Bad

- Let's start with the obvious. When you're losing the production of Jayson Tatum, that means in addition to Jaylen picking up the slack offensively, the "others" were going to need to do the same. One player can't replicate what Tatum does because he does the shit you usually see from 2 or 3 players combined. 

Knowing that, it was pretty unfortunate that Horford and KP went a combined 5-20 (1-9) from the floor. Al you can sort of look over because he has lifetime immunity, but the 2-10 (0-4) from KP really stung. Sure he went to the line a bunch and finished 13-14, but 20/0% splits on a night where he needed to play like the #2 was not exactly what I think we were all expecting, especially since he presents so many matchup problems.

KP missed 3 of his 5 shots in the paint which rarely happens, and he only finished with 4 rebounds in his 36 minutes. I mean, this is the very definition of a KP stinker. Didn't make a jumpshot, didn't really rebound, and he finished with 0 assists. That's, bad.

- In the last blog following the Bulls win, I talked about how with the Tatum/Brown Era Celtics, their losses whether they come in the regular season or the postseason boil down to 3 areas. As a reminder, here are the 3:

1. Poor outside shooting

2. Poor late game rebounding

3. TOs/high opponent points off TOs

In previous versions of this team, if they had just 1 of those 3, it almost always resulted in a loss. Then Brad Stevens built the wagon we see today, and it now requires at least 2 of these things for the Celts to drop a game. 

So what happened last night?

You got the poor outside shooting (24%) and the high TOs/opponents TOs with the Celts committing 18 TOs that led to 23 Bulls points. The data doesn't lie. 

Let's start with the outside shooting. Here are some sobering realities for you. In the month of December, the Celtics are shooting just 29.6% on "open 3PA" (59-199). Over their last 6 games, that number drops to 24.6%. That is impossibly bad on clean looks. Wide Open 3s have been fine, floating around 37-39%, but the majority of looks the Celtics have gotten this month from deep have been "open", and they are barely shooting 30%.

How does that stack up with the rest of the league this month? Only 3 teams have been worse when it comes to making "open 3PA". The Hornets, Raptors, and Wizards. Arguably the 3 worst teams in the NBA.

If you look by shooting zone to see where the Celts have really struggled, it's pretty much everywhere. They collectively are shooting just 36% from the corners and 32% from above the break. Players like Jrue Holiday are shooting 30% from the corner and 28.6% from above the break this month. Pritchard is at 35% from the corners. Derrick White is shooting 28% from above the break. Jaylen is shooting 33% from the corner and 28% from above the break. Porzingzis 33% and 31%. Horford 20% from the corner (this was fitting). Tatum is 16% from the corner and 37% from above the break.

As you can see, this has been essentially an entire roster slump from behind the arc for this entire month.

The reason you don't overreact is water will always find its level and this team has proven itself in terms of their quality of shooters. This too shall pass. But even on a night like last night where the Celts stopped taking 3PA (only 33) and instead attacked the basket, at the end of the day winning points in the paint (55-40) didn't do jack shit. You have to be able to make your open 3s in 2024. The Magic did (and won), the Celts didn't (and lost).

But that's only part of the equation. Let's now move to ball security. The Celtics finished with a pathetic 13:18 assist to turnover ratio. Read that fucking sentence again. Jrue, White, and Jaylen all finishing with 5 TOs is pathetic. With their primary offensive initiator not playing, ball security from those three guys is crucial, and they couldn't have been worse. Shit like this is just lazy, losing basketball

Two things stood out to me watching all these careless turnovers.

1. The Celtics desperately need to practice entry passes. They are terrible at them all of a sudden

2. The Celtics have an addiction to jumping when passing, which you learn at birth is a terrible idea and something you should not do/rely on.

If you can't make a jump shot, the last thing you can do is gift your opponent easy transition baskets off turnovers. Make them beat your defense in the halfcourt. When we look at the 2nd half collapse last night, what do we see?

We see the Celts committing 11 TOs and the Magic winning the fastbreak battle 13-2. Gee, do we think this played a role in their comeback? 

- I would also say it's not great that your bench comes in and gives you virtually nothing. Bench points difference in this game was 41-11. Jesus Christ.

Pritchard couldn't find ways to break free from the Magic's perimeter defense and how they were blitzing him off screens, and he finished 3-7 (1-5). The Sam Hauser literally did not take a shot in his 16 minutes. He had a few nice steals and a couple of rebounds, but other than that it was all cardio. He's on the floor to shoot, and he did not take a single FGA.

- All night long you really saw the Celts struggle with the Magic's ball pressure. This isn't a fluke, it's what the Magic do, and it is something that has to be figured out. This is the book on how you give the Celts trouble. Not many teams have the roster or the defense to pull it off, but those that do see similar success. We saw it with the Warriors, we saw it with MIN, and we saw it again last night. 

Be extra physical, be aggressive on every screen, close out hard. There's a reason the Magic have one of the best defenses in the NBA, and last night that physicality played a role down the stretch. It's how the Celts were defending in the first half when they built their 15 point lead, and it's how the Magic won the second half by 19 points. 

- If you wanted to look for issues to be annoyed with so far this season, the biggest item on my list right now has to be the Celtics 4th quarter defense. It's awful. I'm not just being dramatic, it legitimately is in the bottom 3rd of the NBA with a 114 DRTG in the 4th quarter.

Last night, the Celts put up a 120 DRTG in the final 12 minutes. Tied entering the final frame, this is where you need to strap in and get stops. Instead, the Celts allowed 56/55% shooting and 29 points. They kicked things off by allowing a 7-0 run which ballooned into like 11-2 or something terrible like that. Zero resistance at a time when that's the very thing you need. 

And as I said, this isn't just a last night issue. This is turning into an every night issue. If you wanted to get even more specific and look at their 4th quarter defense in "clutch" time games, it's even worse. In those scenarios, the Celts put up a 118.9 DRTG which ranks 22nd in the NBA. And this includes KP games which many people said was the only reason for their defensive struggles early. Nope. It's just been ass.

The Ugly

- Alright, let's move on to probably the biggest moment of the night, which was the big possession in the final moments down 1 point. 

After working their way back and getting the big stop down 1, I'd say this possession was less than ideal. You could even call it straight up bad.

But my reasoning may be a little different than most. People look at that Horford shot and say it's a bad shot because it didn't go in. I don't really view it that way. I don't look at 3PA as "good" or "bad" based on the result. What I care more about is the process in which it was generated.

So the Horford shot wasn't bad just because it missed. We've seen him make that exact shot in that exact scenario plenty of times, and you get why he took it.

The Horford shot was a bad shot because of how it was generated and the situation in which he took it. 

First and foremost, you have to give the Magic credit for how they defended that possession in transition. Look at #12. He immediately shuts off the pass to Jaylen once Jrue gets to the hashmark, and you can see that's where Holiday initially wanted to go with the ball. From there, watch what everyone does. Look at how bad the spacing is right before and after the Holiday pass to Horford. It's bad process.

Even if you believe Al should not have taken that 3PA, where was the outlet for him to pass the ball? Jaylen is face-guarded, Jrue is guarded, White is so far back that's an easy pickoff for #12. The answer is probably a pump fake and drive, but Al's a billion years old. I don't expect him to do something like that in that spot. Instead, he rushed the contested 3PA and that was that.

But the issue is more everything that happened around the shot. This is where losing that timeout on a bad challenge came back to hurt you. You can't waste your final timeout in that spot with 36 seconds left, and in an ideal world Joe sees how bad the spacing is and blows it dead. 

Should Jrue have maybe flipped it to Jaylen at the top of the arc instead of to Al in the corner? Maybe, but I don't really put that on Jrue. Al was open. A play like this is a great example of why Mazzulla is so obsessed with spacing because at the end of the day, almost all of your issues offensively come from poor spacing. 

- 5 missed FTs in a game you lose by 4. Sick. 

I know it feels like a bit of a cop out to just sum things up to the Celts playing like shit, but that's really all this is. They're in a rut on both ends of the floor. You see flashes for a quarter or a half, but I can't remember the last time we saw a full 48 minutes of high effort and high execution. That, is the issue. To do it on a night where you also don't have your best player available, well that's how you get a result like this.