The Juan Soto Sweepstakes Are Nearing An End, With Bidding Reportedly Over $600M And Teams Preparing Their Final Offers

Harry How. Getty Images.

The Juan Soto sweepstakes have been nothing short of exhausting to follow, but not exactly the way you'd envision. Neither Soto or his agent Scott Boras have done anything wrong to this point. It's December 4th and we're nearing the end of these negotiations. Perfectly normal for a big baseball offseason free agent. In fact, if this gets done before the Winter Meetings I'd say this wrapped up much quicker than ever imagined. Remember how late the Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Matt Chapman deals got done last year? This is a breeze compared to that shit. The difference is we're dealing with a generational super star whose upcoming decision will shape the rest of free agency. That's the power he possesses. A player of his pedigree and caliber doesn't hit the market at 26 years old very often with how difficult a journey it can be to obtain the proper service time years to reach free agency. You need to debut in your teens, be a beast from the jump, avoid injuries, and hold off on the temptation of accepting a large deal while you're getting paid either the league minimum or in your arb years. Soto has checked all the boxes and now has the honor of choosing who will hand him the largest contract in baseball history. Because he is this big of a deal, his team knows to get this done quick since his decision impacts how every other team goes about their offseason. No one moves before Juan, unless you're Blake Snell and you get a giant contract from the Dodgers because they're the Dodgers. Besides that, it's a big hold up. 

The exhausting part of all this, which I mentioned at the top, has been the people on Twitter who are dying to break the news. They're nobodies who really have nothing to lose if they're wrong so they figure why not throw something out there. Some of those people are "beat writers" who are tied to teams, but really don't know shit. Randy Miller, I'm talking about you. It feels like every hour I go online and see some new report that people are latching onto which holds no water whatsoever. 

"The Red Sox have a deal done, announcement soon."

"The Mets will go $50M more than anyone else." 

"The Yankees are out, they won't offer more than $550M"

"The Savanah Bananas have Juan's family hostage and won't let them go unless he signs with them for life"

"The Blue Jays will not give up and will have the highest bid"

It doesn't end. 

For me it's Jeff Passan, Jack Curry, and a little Ken Rosenthal when it comes to baseball news. Passan is the head of it all. His word means everything. Curry has always had the inside scoop on the Yankees and never spews bullshit. Cashman is in his ear, so when you hear it from him, it might as well be Brian in front of a microphone telling you what's happening. Rosenthal is up there as well of course. Everyone else is irrelevant as far as I'm concerned when it comes to Juan's decision. 

With all that being said, let's talk about what we know and try to make sense of it all. Last offseason Shohei Ohtani signed a record breaking 10 year, $700M contract with the Dodgers, deferring almost all of that until he retires. The present value of that deal was worth $460M and I think it goes without saying that Soto is going to easily clear that number. The question that remains is whether he'll exceed the 700 plateau. Considering we're dealing with Scott Boras' ego I'd say there's a very good chance that happens. 

Ken Rosenthal reported last night that the current bids of contending teams all have passed the $600M level. 

The clubs publicly known to be most serious about Soto are the New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers. The two people briefed on the negotiations said that all remaining contenders have made offers above $600 million.

The expectation within the industry is that Soto will make his decision by the end of the Winter Meetings, which begin in Dallas on Sunday, and possibly even before the meetings kick off. But Boras said he doesn’t expect an “imminent” decision.

The above paragraph is information gathered from Ken's sources as well as Scott Boras himself at Blake Snell's Dodger press conference yesterday. Final bids appear to be on their way with a decision coming, but nothing yet. The scariest part about this time is that at any moment the announcement could come. As someone who stays up until 2am normally and doesn't exactly wake up at the crack of dawn, this time of the year is a nightmare. You want to be awake when this shit goes down. Hell, two years ago during Judge's circus I fell to my knees in my living room when the "Arson Judge to the Giants" tweet came in from Heyman. I was sound asleep in the AM when it was reported he was staying with the Yankees. It's simply terrifying to get an ounce of rest when something this big is looming. I have a wedding on Saturday and know this shit will drop during the first dance. I'm gonna have to be such an asshole, aren't I?

So what do we know outside of Ken's report above? Not much else unless you want to trick your brain into believing the wildcard reports. If that's how you wanna absorb the news I can't stop you, but it's really best to wait for the big guns to drop word before losing your mind. 

Here's how my dumb brain is analyzing this shit storm. Soto is going for record setting money. The Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays are the teams in the running. I've personally ruled out the Blue Jays in my head, but you can keep them alive if you want. They'd have to come in with a billion dollar offer to get him to play in Canada. If he goes there I'll just laugh. I'd like to believe the Dodgers won't get Soto, but why should I? Shohei's deferral deal and global revenue stream make it all possible in this sick world we live in. Can't discard them literally ever. The Red Sox seem legitimately serious, but is it enough seriousness to near what the New York teams have to offer? I'm under the belief they'll top out somewhere and turn to premier starting pitching (Fried), but if there's ever a way for John Henry to get the fans back on his side it's to steal Juan Soto away from New York. Jack Curry spoke on Monday during the YES Network's Hot Stove show and expressed a lot of confidence when it came to the Yankees' pursuit of retaining Soto. He wouldn't be talking like this if they were topping out at $550M like Randy Miller reported. 

The Yankees believe they've made him the priority he deserves to be and that they're doing all they can to keep him. Encouraging no doubt since many doubted Hal's will to spend, but the only problem with that is Steve Cohen has endless pockets and does not care about luxury tax. He wants to make a statement here and out-bid the Evil Empire. He can get the Mets truly on the map as a force to be reckoned with if he gets his man. 

It kind of seems like Soto has these offers all at a level where it's now just up to him to decide where he genuinely wants to be. 

In my perfect world Soto loved being a Yankee and just wanted them to hit a certain offer number. I'm not saying he takes a discount, but more that he always wanted to stay and just need the Yankees to play ball with Cohen. Boras uses the Mets and everyone else to drive up Hal's offer and they get it done at 15 years, $675M. Something like that. If it's all about top dollar he's a Met just based off the fact that Cohen is a mad man who is doing this as a hobby and not financial gain. 

Hopefully by the end of the week we have our answer. Maybe not in the middle of the night or while I'm at this wedding? You just know it's coming on Saturday with my luck. Everyone prepare.