Welcome To The Pleasant Surprises Of The First Month Of The NBA Season
All of a sudden we're a month into the new NBA season. Time sure does fly when you're having fun amirite?!
Personally, I like to break the 82 game journey into quarters. The first quarter or so is about identifying certain trends. Nothing should be set in stone, but this is the time of year when you start to see the foundations of a team or a player's season get built. The next quarter of the season is about confirming those trends. By this point, you can say with confidence which early season trends were real and which weren't given you're around halfway through the year
The next quarter of games is more about when teams typically start trying since by this point we're after the All Star break and things are pretty much established. In the final quarter you can mostly throw it away, as some teams are tanking and others are resting guys as a way to prep for the playoffs.
So if you're interested in seeing what might be different for your favorite team or player in 2024-25, we're currently in the phase where those trends are being established. While there are some storylines like the Cavs/Warriors start or the Celts dominance that have been most of the early season talking points, now that we're a month in I wanted to shed some light on some other trends that I feel like once we get to the midpoint of the year will be proven to be real.
The Rockets are ready for their leap
Heading into the season, it was hard to avoid the hype surrounding the Rockets. They were everyone's favorite pick to make a leap this season given the talent and depth of their roster. If you asked someone to predict who would crash the party in the West, the overwhelming majority was going to say HOU.
Well? At 12-6, they currently sit 3rd in the Western Conference. They are 7-3 vs teams .500 or better which is tied for the most wins in the NBA (OKC also has 7). So how are they doing this? Easy. As NBA history tells us, for a team to make this type of leap and for it to be real, it has to start on the defensive end. Having crazy offensive talent is nice, but if you don't defend, you don't make the type of leap the Rockets are making right now.
As of today, they own the #2 ranked defense in the league. That's a decent sized jump from their 10th ranking last year, and I call it a surprise because a team with FVV, Jalen Green, and Sengun having that high of a ranking is both a testament to Ime's system and the fact that guys are buying in. They are showing no signs that this is fake, and that changes the discussion around HOU if they are going to put up a Top 3 level defense.
Compare it to say, the Lakers. Remember when everyone was praising their start? It's a little fugazi when you look at the numbers. They are the only team in the top 6 with a negative point differential (-0.5) and they rank 27th defensively as a team.
The Rockets? Their +8.7 differential is the 5th highest in the entire NBA. Admit it, that's surprising.
The Clippers….actually aren't dead?
With Paul George heading East and Kawhi Leonard playing a total of 0 seconds of basketball this season, it wasn't a stretch to think that the Clippers might be one of the teams out West who would drop out of the Play In.
In reality? They're 11-7, have won 5 in a row and have found a way to stay alive. Part of that is Norm Powell playing the best basketball of his life (23.3/3.1/2.3 on 49/48% with 3.9 3PM), but also part of that is James Harden finding ways to put up 20/10 in his sleep
Considering his age, that's a little surprising.
His efficiency isn't quite there (36/31%), but you're lying if you say you thought the Clippers would be 11-7 at this point of the season and within striking distance of a top 3 seed in the West. Not once the Kawhi news broke.
As it turns out, defensively they've been great, the others are stepping up and they have this "nobody believes in us" thing going on that seems to be working. Will it last? That's what the next quarter of games will tell us.
Franz Wagner showing he's a legit 1B
Once Paolo (who was having an All NBA season) went down, many thought the Magic were cooked. It took a while for them to settle down and adjust to life without their best player, but they're currently 8-2 over their last 10 gssmes and sit in 3rd in the East.
The biggest reason? Franz Wagner has exploded
Remember, there were some that question what the Magic were doing when they signed Wagner to that $200M extension. I consider it simply the price of doing business, but that's the type of money you give guys who you think can carry you as a #1, which is something Franz had to prove.
The fact that the Magic haven't only been able to tread water without Paolo but have maintained their top 3 seeding is basically all due to Franz. He's shown flashes like this type of play before, most notably for Team Germany, but to me the surprise comes with his 3pt shooting. This was a disaster last year (28.1% on 4.6 3PA), and for him to make that leap as a reliable #1, that had to be sorted out. You don't need to be Steph Curry, but you have to be respectable in that role.
So far this season, Franz has jumped to 35.7% on 6.2 3PA which to me is more than enough. Right around league average. What makes that more impressive is the fact that defenses now pay him all the attention since there's no Paolo on the floor. Once a guy gets his rhythm back like Wagner looks to have done, why can't that be sustainable? It sounds silly, but him being a league average 3pt shooter changes A LOT for the Magic's offense once Paolo comes back.
I think most expected Wagner to step up in this new role, but this quality of play? That's the very definition of a pleasant surprise.
Jalen Williams is a small ball 5 extraordinaire
Once Chet went down, the Thunder needed to get creative when it came to their center position. Thankfully Hartenstein came back, but he can't play forever.
Their answer? Jalen Williams at center and going completely small.
Logic tells you this shouldn't work right? No player above 6'6 isn't exactly a recipe for success, yet the numbers are undeniable.
The Thunder are currently outscoring by nearly 12 points per 100 possessions with Jalen Williams playing the small ball center, and opponents are only shooting 48.4% against him at the rim.
No matter what lineup combo the Thunder throw out there with JDub at the 5, they pretty much have all worked. I'm not sure too many people saw that coming. Heading into this season, Jalen Williams had a career high of only 2% of his minutes coming as a center, and that was last year.
This year? That number is now 31% of his minutes and the Thunder haven't skipped a beat. It'll be interesting to see how they use this once Chet is back because rebounding was one of their biggest issues last playoffs, but the fact that he's been SO GOOD at the five this year is an interesting wrinkle.
Jared McCain is easily the ROY
Hey, it may be a disaster season for the Sixers, but there's no denying they clearly hit on the Jared McCain pick. If we're talking about a pleasant surprise in the first month of the year, is that not what this is?
I feel confident that nobody thought this was going to be the case when he was drafted, and credit to him for making the most of his opportunity in what is looking like another lost Sixers season.
Will any of this matter as long as Embiid and George are nowhere to be found? No. But at least there's something to be positive about when it comes to that dumpster fire of a team.
The Pistons and Spurs, sneaky not terrible?
In one conference, the Pistons are off to a 7-11 start. While I know that's still kind of shitty and 4 games under .500, you have to remember that the Pistons didn't win their 7th game of the year last season until February 7th (7-43).
Not only that, but they also have 3 losses this season by 3 points or less, so you could make the case they've been playing better than their record. At the very least, they are proving they aren't going to be an easy out and can absolutely compete for a Play In spot this year given how poor the bottom of the East is. Of all the teams 7-10 in the East, the Pistons (11th) have by far the best point differential (-1.8).
In the other conference, you have the Spurs who are already 9-8 after their big 17 point comeback over the Warriors. Last year, the Spurs didn't have their 9th win until January 26th (9-36). Wemby is doing Wemby shit which I think we all expected, but how about the play of rookie Stephon Castle? He looks like he's ready and it's only been a month
CP3 is still getting it done as an orchestrator of that offense, and Harrison Barnes is off to a 52/43% season as the crafty vet wing.
Is it crazy to think the Spurs have made the leap into the Play In, and if things break their way a top 6 seed? OK, that might be getting ahead of ourselves, but it's hard to deny what a pleasant surprise they've been.
So that's my list. There's certainly more (Suns in the clutch, Dalton Knecht, the Nets start) that I wouldn't object to, but this blog had to end at some point. If there's something you've enjoyed that I didn't mention, let's hear it in the comments.
The Thunder are currently outscoring by nearly 12 points per 100 possessions with Jalen Williams playing the small ball center, and opponents are only shooting 48.4% against him at the rim.
No matter what lineup combo the Thunder throw out there with JDub at the 5, they pretty much have all worked. I'm not sure too many people saw that coming. Heading into this season, Jalen Williams had a career high of only 2% of his minutes coming as a center, and that was last year.
This year? That number is now 31% of his minutes and the Thunder haven't skipped a beat. It'll be interesting to see how they use this once Chet is back because rebounding was one of their biggest issues last playoffs, but the fact that he's been SO GOOD at the five this year is an interesting wrinkle.
Jared McCain is easily the ROY
Hey, it may be a disaster season for the Sixers, but there's no denying they clearly hit on the Jared McCain pick. If we're talking about a pleasant surprise in the first month of the year, is that not what this is?
I feel confident that nobody thought this was going to be the case when he was drafted, and credit to him for making the most of his opportunity in what is looking like another lost Sixers season.
Will any of this matter as long as Embiid and George are nowhere to be found? No. But at least there's something to be positive about when it comes to that dumpster fire of a team.
The Pistons and Spurs, sneaky not terrible?
In one conference, the Pistons are off to a 7-11 start. While I know that's still kind of shitty and 4 games under .500, you have to remember that the Pistons didn't win their 7th game of the year last season until February 7th (7-43).
Not only that, but they also have 3 losses this season by 3 points or less, so you could make the case they've been playing better than their record. At the very least, they are proving they aren't going to be an easy out and can absolutely compete for a Play In spot this year given how poor the bottom of the East is. Of all the teams 7-10 in the East, the Pistons (11th) have by far the best point differential (-1.8).
In the other conference, you have the Spurs who are already 9-8 after their big 17 point comeback over the Warriors. Last year, the Spurs didn't have their 9th win until January 26th (9-36). Wemby is doing Wemby shit which I think we all expected, but how about the play of rookie Stephon Castle? He looks like he's ready and it's only been a month
CP3 is still getting it done as an orchestrator of that offense, and Harrison Barnes is off to a 52/43% season as the crafty vet wing.
Is it crazy to think the Spurs have made the leap into the Play In, and if things break their way a top 6 seed? OK, that might be getting ahead of ourselves, but it's hard to deny what a pleasant surprise they've been.
So that's my list. There's certainly more (Suns in the clutch, Dalton Knecht, the Nets start) that I wouldn't object to, but this blog had to end at some point. If there's something you've enjoyed that I didn't mention, let's hear it in the comments.