Kyler Murray Is A Road Warrior: NFL Week 12 Stats And Trends
Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday morning).
LW: 3-2
YTD: 33-23
Minnesota Vikings (8-2, 7-3 ATS) @ Chicago Bears (4-6, 5-4-1 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
MIN -3.5
T 39.5
This will be the third straight week that the Vikings are a road favorite. The under has hit the last two weeks, and overall when the Vikings are a road favorite under Kevin O’Connell, the under is 10-2. The Bears have also been cashing unders a bunch, hitting in 4 straight games.
The Stats Say: Under
Detroit Lions (9-1, 8-2 ATS) @ Indianapolis Colts (5-6, 8-3 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
DET -7.5
T 50.5
Anthony Richardson gets a lot of shit, but he's actually been solid to bet on, going 8-3 ATS in his career. He’s also covered 5 straight as an underdog. And even though the Lions have just been killing teams, road favorites of a touchdown or more have covered just 15 of the last 51 games (15-33-3 ATS)
The Stats Say: Colts
Arizona Cardinals (6-4, 7-3 ATS) @ Seattle Seahawks (5-5, 3-6-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
SEA -1
T 47.5
This is just a matchup of a great road QB versus a terrible home QB. Kyler Murray is an impressive 23-10-2 ATS on the road in his career. Meanwhile, Geno Smith has covered just 4 of his last 18 home games. The 12th man is dead. I think the Cardinals are a way better team and will prove that here.
The Stats Say: Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers (5-5, 4-6 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (7-3, 4-6 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
GB -2.5
T 47.5
Kind of stunning, this is the first time that the 49ers are an underdog since October 2022. And while it may be rare, Kyle Shanahan has been good in that spot, he's 13-5 ATS in his last 18 games getting points
The Stats Say: 49ers
Philadelphia Eagles (8-2, 6-4 ATS) @ Los Angeles Rams (5-5, 4-6 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
PHI -2.5
T 48.5
This isn't a great spot forJalen Hurts, who has covered just 8 of 23 games as a road favorite in his career. The Rams, meanwhile, have played their best under the brightest lights. They are 18-9 ATS in primetime since 2019.
The Stats Say: Rams
If you missed this week's Advisors, catch up now.