Igor Shesterkin Inks With The Rangers For 8 More Years
Jared Silber. Getty Images.#NYR reach agreement on an eight-year, $92 million contract extension with Igor Shesterkin, who will earn a record annual average value of $11.5 million for an NHL goaltender, per @NYP_Brooksie. https://t.co/85ysPf8rYd via @nypostsports
— Mollie Walker (@MollieeWalkerr) December 6, 2024
Is it a lot of money? Well yeah. Usually when the undoubted best player at his position is set to hit unrestricted free agency at the peak & prime of their career they reset the market in any sport. For the NHL, the salary cap has been stagnant for a couple years so recent contracts have been the same - making this number look bigger than it is. But the cap is now in catchup mode set to make significant annual increases, therefore making bigger numbers the new norm. It just so happens Igor Shesterkin - a GOALIE (gasp) - is among the first to dabble in the new space…deservedly so.
There's a large contingent bringing up goalie comparables. Recent contracts signed by guys like Hellebuyck & Swayman have people clamoring that Igor isn't much better than guys who were inked long-term for less. It's not apples to apples though. Both are great goalies. No question. But Swayman's deal (8/$8.25M per) was done while he's still an RFA which takes away some leverage, and let's not forget he was never a true #1 before signing. Also, he'll still be young enough for another decent payday at 33 whereas this is likely the one & only big swing for the soon-to-be-29 year-old Shesterkin. As for Hellebuyck (7/$8.5M), his contract kicked in when he was 31 & his 560+ NHL games is more than double the mileage Igor has on his tires. And what's Helly done in the playoffs recently? Oh that's right. Back-to-back 5-game exits with a combined 4.28 GAA/.878 save percentage. Putting Igor in the same category as a younger guy who's never owned the net himself and an older guy that absolutely shits himself in the postseason is straight up disrespectful.
Shesty's regular season success is one thing. In his first three seasons as the Rangers true top dog between the pipes he's been incredible. Among the 12 goalies with 150+ starts over that span he's tops in wins (109), goals against (2.39) & save percentage (.921) with a Hart finalist/Vezina-winning year to boot. Some might want to bring up his nightmare run from last season where #31 posted an ugly .887 save percentage over 19 midseason games. Despite that though, only 5 goalies with 40+ starts ended the season better than his .912 thanks to being lights-out down the stretch. He's looked human on the rare occasion but always bounces back & never flinches when it matters most.
When does it matter most? Playoffs. Duh. And that's where Shesterkin truly separates himself. Over the last three postseasons, Igor's played the 3rd-most games (43). His 2.39/.929 peripherals are tops among any goalie with even somewhat of a similar workload, and those numbers look even better when you consider he's never had a playoff shutout. That means consistency. His 30 goals saved above average is more than TRIPLE any netminder not named Adin Hill who did all his damage during a 2023 Cinderella Cup run. Shesty merely DOUBLES his 14.
Jake Oettinger has solid numbers (2.50/.916) across his 45 playoff tilts but he's been up & down. Sandwiched between outstanding efforts in 2022 & 2024 is a 2023 performance that was flat out abysmal. 3.06/.895 over 19 games. Minus 5 goals saved above average. Got pulled twice in the second round against the Kraken & again in the WCF vs Vegas before getting pummeled for 6 in a decisive Game 6 that put the Stars season to bed. Bobrovsky's another who looks pretty solid on the surface (2.56/.911) but his goals against in '22 & '23 was 2.70+ while sporting an uninspiring .906 save percentage on the way to last year's Cup. He didn't even stop ONE total goal above average over 24 starts. Sure he got the job done but it's fair to say he was a passenger on that train whose lone goal was not to fuck it up.
Name after name, no goalie has performed at such a consistently high level as Playoff Igor. After a rough start in his first ever series against the Pens, Shesty stabilized himself to help pull off a 3-1 series comeback before going on an absolute tear. THIRTY STRAIGHT playoff games without allowing more than 3 goals & only ceded 4 twice over his last 39. He's turned aside at least 90% of pucks in over 80% of his playoff starts. In the three series where the Blueshirts were eliminated, Shesterkin has legitimately been the last to blame:
2022 ECF vs TB - 2.37/.933/3 GSAA
2023 vs NJ - 1.96/.931/5.5 GSAA
2024 ECF vs FL - 2.25/.935/2.5 GSAA
I don't like the narrative that there should be such a big pay gap between top skaters & top goalies. While I don't think any tender can be on a McDavid/MacKinnon level I don't put Shesterkin that far behind. Look at some recent 8-year skater deals. William Nylander got 8/$11.5M per on the back of a pair of 40-goal seasons, no awards & 43 playoff points in 54 games. Shesty crushes him at that price point. If you wanna find a true skater comparable in terms of value, it's Pastrnak. Over the prior three seasons only Matthews has scored more total & even-strength goals while Pasta is one of only 8 players with 300+ points. He's got a Hart runner-up season & basically been a point-per-game playoff producer. If he was to be signing a new deal starting next season, he'd easily be pushing $13M or more. So $11.5M for Igor is plenty fair.
Listen, having your goaltender eating up such a big chunk of your salary cap isn't the norm - but Igor Shesterkin is not the norm either. Having the best in the world doesn't all of a sudden become a bad thing because you have to pay him as such. Navigating the cap is nothing new for contenders & Chris Drury just completed his second crucial piece of business today, making that navigation a hell of a lot easier. Forking over a mil or two more per year than some hockey fans think Shesterkin (or any goalie) deserves doesn't make the ultimate goal of a Stanley Cup impossible. Locking up the best goalie in the game who only gets better come playoffs keeps that Cup window open as wide as ever.
VIVA LA BLUESHIRTS!!!