More Good News In Chicago: Elliotte Friedman Talks About Bedard's Growing Frustration With Losing
I would encourage you all to listen to the entire clip from Friedman and his co-host which was inspired by the quote above.
I really like Elliotte Friedman. I wish I was friends with him so he could've considered what Chicago went through last night with the Bears before releasing a podcast casually discussing my deepest and darkest fears around the Blackhawks' rebuild.
Let's start with the positives...
1)Friedman likes everything about Bedard and the way he handles himself. I largely do too.
2) It's way too early to panic about Bedard and his future
3) Bedard has a history of being loyal to his organization through tough times
4) It's good that Bedard is pissed off with the amount of losing he's experienced so far in his career
5) Friedman isn't starting rumors per se.
All good things. Having said that Friedman asked some very important questions that all of us need to be honest about when looking at the organization
1) Is Your Franchise A Destination For Free Agents?
Friedman referenced the Jake Guentzel and the Blackhawks run at him this summer. I covered that pretty extensively over the summer. I thought it was a good move. I wish they were able to get it over the goal line. Guentzel ultimately signed for 7 years and $9M AAV with Tampa. Now, I don't know what the Blackhawks final offer was for Guentzel, but if I had to guess it was probably for the exact same term (the max) and likely a higher AAV. I don't know exactly what the number was, but I know that signing Guentzel was a possibility right up to the draft when Tampa officially decided to move on from Stamkos and made a few moves to clear cap space. While I think there was genuine interest from Guentzel in joining the Chicago project, he clearly decided to take a different offer and go to a clearly better organization.
Are the Blackhawks a destination...I think they should be. I think they used to be. I know that they aren't right now. The longer term guys they signed this summer signed their best financial offer. The other guys they signed perhaps signed their only offer. I do talk to players around the league and there are more than whispers about Chicago not being a great place to be an NHL player anymore even though it's one of the best cities in the world, an Original 6 franchise, and having Connor Bedard. Now, it wasn't a destination before either and it became one. The Blackhawks had to over pay for Brian Campbell and they also signed Cristobal Huet in the summer of 2008. Those signings were statements of intent. They changed the narrative even if it wasn't necessarily the soundest business. Those deals, especially Soupy, changed the narrative around Chicago. The Campbell deal also helped them compete and they got to the conference final in 2009. The combination of winning, being known as a first class organization around the league, a great city, and young stars all contributed to Blackhawks being able to sign Marian Hossa in the summer of 2009 and that obviously changed the ceiling for that group.
I think making big free agent signings was always part of the Davidson blueprint. We are Chicago, we will have money, and furthermore...we are Chicago. The only problem with this logic is that the players have to a) want to sign here and b) they have to become available. Truly impactful free agents leaving in their prime just doesn't happen very often. Tavares left the Isles to play for his childhood team. Hossa signed in Chicago. How many other super star players have moved on via free agency in the salary cap era? Not many that I can think of. When this rebuild started two years ago I am sure the Blackhawks front office was salivating over the idea of signing Nylander or Draisaitl...they've both signed long term extensions. I am not the biggest Marner guy, but my gut says that he won't hit the market either when it's all said and done. If he does...do you think he'd want to come to Chicago? I have my doubts.
2) What is our timeline here?
This is a big question. Davidson has drafted 30 players in three years. I am very encouraged by many of them. Having said that...the only draft pick by this regime who will get significant NHL ice-time this year is Connor Bedard. That's all well and good. It's not a failure by any stretch at this juncture, but at the same time...what is the timeline? The Blackhawks are going to be a bottom 5 team again this year most likely. Next year, you hope, that Levshunov, Korchinski, and Frank Nazar are all on the NHL roster full-time. I don't think that those guys, as rookies, give you a big push towards the playoffs. So any improvement would have to be acquired some other way. Meaning they have to make a push to sign Rantanen, Marner, or my choice...Sam Bennett. Which goes back to the first question...is Chicago a destination? Probably not compared to what those other organizations have cooking. If they don't make major acquisitions I have a hard time imagining the Blackhawks making the playoffs in 2025-26. That means for the length of Bedard's rookie deal the Blackhawks will have nothing but lottery picks to show from it. Which brings us to question #3
3) When does losing become part of DNA?
This is something I've been saying for a while. They played like losers last year. Bad habits. Bad culture. A team full of young guys trying to keep their head above water and vets hanging on and being asked to do more than they are capable of at this stage in the career. So far they don't look too dissimilar this year. I saw this tweet last week that hammered home one of their bad habits
This is the stuff that drives me crazy. I am on board with a rebuild, no choice at this point, but I am tired of watching the bad habits. You don't need all-stars to play the right way. All I really care about is the team playing smart and playing hard. If the Blackhawks lose to a more talented team, fine. Don't beat yourself. Losses will come, but you don't losses to become who you are. I don't know who exactly to blame for stuff like this besides literally everyone. Obviously it starts with Richardson, but I can see how establishing a culture of accountability could be hard with this roster construction. Similar to last year where you have some young guys trying to figure out how to be pros and some veterans who are essentially mercenaries. I don't have any ideas of how to do it, but what is happening game to game, shift to shift, isn't good enough.
4) "Rebuilding isn't an exact science and it's hard to know what you have". What do the Blackhawks have?
I am an optimist by nature, but I feel like I've had to sort of be the voice of reason about this rebuild. I think there's many people who saw the three Cups almost immediately after Toews and Kane got here and when Chicago won the lottery with Bedad we thought we'd run it back. That scenario was impossible. There was nothing here when Bedard arrived. He didn't have an established culture with good young players who bought in and had strong leadership abilities like Sharpie, Keith, and Seabrook.
Rebuilding is hard. The Sabres have been rebuilding my entire adult life. Detroit is still trying to get the Yzerplan into the playoffs. The Kings rebuilt their Cup teams into a solid, but unspectacular team with a ceiling. The Maple Leafs hit on virtually all of their high picks and landed a super star free agent. With all of those stars they have one playoff series win to show for it. Winning ain't easy and it's definitely not guaranteed.
What do the Blackhawks have? I think their defense will end up being very good. Vlasic is a top shut down guy and he's locked up at a good number. I think Levshunov will be a true two-way defenseman at some point. Rinzel looks like he can be a top 4 guy with power play value too. The big question mark is still Korchinski. Great tools. I really hope he's another guy who has PP value and you can trust in big minutes against top opponents. Obviously there's a chance that he never becomes that player. If he ends up being a "luxury" player who runs your PP and plays on the third pair...that's not great. That's not what you hope for when you draft a guy 7th overall. That description of a PP/3rd pair sheltered minutes guy...that is Erik Gustafsson. It especially hurts when you traded Alex Debrincat for that type of player. So let's hope that a year in the AHL will do him some good.
Bedard obviously has the goods. The minerals. I do think there's a question of how to get the absolute most out of him. I am still not sold that his best position in the NHL is as a center. Would the Blackhawks, in a vacuum, be better off with him playing on a wing and putting up Kucherov numbers? Maybe. The problem with that is if Bedard isn't a center, then they might not have one anywhere in their system at this point. At least not a top 6 center. I like what I've seen from Moore and Nazar in the BigTen, but they look like NHL wings to me. They are also both on the smaller side like Bedard. While the game is built on speed and skill more than ever, the game is still the game and the teams that win the Cup look the same as they always have. Big, mean, fast, and physical. Panthers, Vegas, St Louis, Tampa, and Colorado all have a different profile physically than what the Blackhawks are building. Plenty of size and speed on the blue line in the future for the Blackhawks, but not much size up front. They also have the goaltending situation to work out. I can't say I am great at evaluating goalies and I haven't seen much of Commesso, but his numbers aren't spectacular.
Which brings us back to the original point...how long is Bedard going to be cool with losing? I think he will eventually sign a long term deal here. It's very difficult to become a UFA as a top player. It's why those guys don't become available often. We will know next summer how much he trusts this rebuild because he's eligible for an 8-year extension next summer. Will he sign immediately? If I were his agent I would advise against it because with the talent around him he isn't going to put up world beating numbers this year. The Blackhawks might offer pay him as if he did, but with the uncertainty of the future and the cap going up if I were his agent I'd see what year 3 looks like and try to look around the corner at years 4-7 before signing.
A ton of people were criticizing me for "wanting to speed up the rebuild" and spend on Guentzel or take a run at a Reinhart if he became available. I don't think it would've negatively impacted the rebuild or cap situation at all, but I did want to get a better team on the ice this year because of all the question Elliotte Friedman asked out loud this week. I was also jealous and frustrated when the Blues gave Dylan Holloway an offersheet and Chicago didn't. Holloway would've been the perfect piece to add to the mix up front. Great speed, good size, and has been in a good culture with great players in Edmonton. He's still young, the Blues got him for pretty cheap both AAV and draft comp. He could've been that Versteeg/Sharp type player who has established himself at the NHL level, but also has room for growth. Not sure if the Blackhawks kicked the can on that at all, but they should've. Holloway fits their style of player and their timeline.
I think Bedard is here long term. I think he signs an 8-year deal at somepoint, but the clock is ticking, officially. Eichel went into a bad situation, left, and ended up with his name on the Cup. The Blackhawks need to do everything they can to show signs of life, growth, and a path to winning. That starts with doing the little things right.