Move Over Andy Reid, Mike McCarthy Is The True Bye Week King: NFL Week 8 Stats And Trends
Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday morning). Been a winning season so far so let's keep the wins coming.
LW: 3-2
YTD: 21-15
Atlanta Falcons (4-3, 3-4 ATS) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3, 4-3 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
ATL -2.5
T 46
The Falcons lost last week, and that's good news for this week. Kirk Cousins is 27-15 ATS in his last 42 games coming off a loss. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield has struggled against familiar opponents. He's just 7-16 ATS in divisional matchups since 2019.
The Stats Say: Falcons
Philadelphia Eagles (4-2, 3-3 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-4, 4-3 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
CIN -3
T 47.5
The Bengals look like they're finally starting to put it together. And when Joe Burrow gets hot, he stays hot. Since 2022, he’s 11-3 ATS when on a winning streak of 2 or more games.
The Stats Say: Bengals
Buffalo Bills (5-2, 4-3 ATS) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-3, 2-4-1 ATS)
4:05 PM on FOX
BUF -3
T 47
A lot of people probably think about the Bills as an "over" team, but that's not the case, especially away from Buffalo. The under is 15-5 in the Bills last 20 road games, and only 4 of those games have had more than 47 points.
The Stats Say: Under
Chicago Bears (4-2, 4-1-1 ATS) @ Washington Commanders (5-2, 5-1-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
CHI -2
T 44
This stat took my breath away a little bit. In a game with a road team coming off a bye (the Bears here), the under is 25-5! That's too stark to just be a coincidence, and I think there could be something to a team being rusty from the week off and then having to travel. With Jayden Daniels potentially out, points could be hard to come by as both defenses are playing pretty well.
The Stats Say: Under
Dallas Cowboys (3-3, 2-3-1 ATS) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-4, 3-4 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
SF -4
T 46.5
People think of Andy Reid as the bye week king, but that title should actually belong to Mike McCarthy. He's 13-3-1 ATS off a bye in his career. And Dak Prescott is also fantastic with extra rest, he's 19-4 ATS with more than 7 days rest in his career.
The Stats Say: Cowboys
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.