Jared Goff Thrives Off A Bye And Dak Sucks As An Underdog: NFL Week 6 Stats And Trends
Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday morning). Last week was a brutal one for the stats but we're still up on the year.
LW: 1-5
YTD: 14-12
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears
9:30 AM on NFL Network (London)
CHI -2.5
T 44.5
The Bears have been taking care of business when they're supposed to. They've covered 5 straight games as the favorite, winning by 14 points on average. And historically, London favorites fare pretty well, they are 22-11-1 SU across the pond.
The Stats Say: Bears
Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens
1 PM on CBS
BAL -6.5
T 52
This stat surprised me as I thought it would go the other direction. But 4-1 teams that are a road dog in Week 6 are 11-3-2 ATS since 2011, winning 9 of those outright. Maybe that shows us that 4-1 teams are just actually quite good.
The Stats Say: Commanders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
1 PM on FOX
TB -3.5
T 41.5
The Bucs are coming off a TNF game on extra rest, while the Saints are coming off a MNF football game on short rest. Teams with the rest advantage in this spot (the Bucs here) are 16-7 ATS since 2015.
The Stats Say: Bucs
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
4:25 PM on FOX
DET -3
T 52.5
Jared Goff has been great off a bye in his career, he's 7-2 ATS. Meanwhile, Dak has been pretty terrible when getting points, he's just 2-8 ATS in his last 10 as an underdog.
The Stats Say: Lions
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants
8:20 PM on NBC
CIN -3.5
T 48.5
Let me preface this by saying that Daniel Jones is a really nice guy who's having a really nice season. But the facts are the facts here. He's 1-14 SU in primetime games throughout his career (6-9 ATS). And Joe Burrow thrives in this spot, he's 12-3 ATS on the road off a loss in his career.
The Stats Say: Bengals
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.