The Official MLB Divisional Series Playoff Blog (Part II)
This is a blog about the MLB playoffs and I think the 4th installment of an ongoing conversation. To get fully caught up on everything I've already had to say, click here.
For purposes of staying organized, I've predetermined a list of 9 critical things to talk about. Let's count up.
1. All four series are tied 1-1 which is so rare that it's literally never happened. The closest was in 2011 when 3 of the 4 series started 1-1. The next year in 2012, every DS went a full 5 games. But never since Wild Card expansion and the inclusion of a 5-game round has there been a year when all 4 series started 1-1. First time in history, which is awesome because there's already so much history. Always feels good to see it happen in real time and this is exactly one of those times.
2. The Mets Are Inevitable and Steve Cohen's Not A Bad Guy
In fact that's a very good owner considering all the insane Mets fans out there spewing actionable hate towards him. And also a super smart Rich Guy move to use a prop like a water bottle to mitigate handshake risk. Strangers are less likely to go for a missed handshake, and Steve's clearly signaling he's closed for that kinda business. At best you could go fist pound and even then it's a reach, literally.
Completely unrelated - it's fascinating to me that Steve Cohen is the 9th richest owner in the world at $17.4B, which is HALF of Dan Gilbert of the Cavaliers, the mortgage guy. Always puts things in perspective to consider the different kinds of markets but I digress. We're here for baseball not interest rates.
3. There's a 67% Chance Mets/Phillies Goes 5 Games and I completely just made that number up. But don't you believe me anyways? Doesn't it feel inevitable to be decided by the last pitch of the last inning of this series? Vince McMahon couldn't script a more dramatic NL East match up and I'm not talking about hooligan fan antics. Think big picture storyline. One team that has constantly overperformed in recent stretches of postseason play. Another team that is destined for misery regardless of money, stardom, ownership, etc. And here we are, moments before a 3rd game in front of baseball's most deranged fanbase. Starved? I don't about that. Deranged? absolutely.
4. Aaron Nola vs. Sean Manea is interesting enough but not enough to single it out for a couple hundred words. They both followed the same path to the big leagues: highly drafted prospects with elite stuff. Nola has been obviously the better pitcher but a lot of teammates prefer Manea's character. He's supposed to really stand out in that regard, which I don't think means a damn thing come first pitch. But if you consider the storyline of how each pitcher finds themself in this moment, then I think you can appreciate the emphasis I put on that kinda soft shit in baseball. Consider that Manea will wear more uniforms in one spring training than Nola will his entire career.
Even so, I don't want to shit on Manea because he's actually an underrated pitcher in the grand scheme of peripheral statistics. Some call that luck, others call it the 4th lowest qualified BABIP in all of MLB this season. Whatever the description, fact remains he's limited hitters to just 134 hits across 180 innings, which is a sub-.250 BABIP. For context, your target AVG/against as a starting pitcher is .250… so Manea getting .250 on every ball in play this year is even more remarkable. Digging deeper, he's average in strikeout and walk rate while being below average in a lot of other categories I don't want to explain. The whole thing just adds up to him being a lucky dude.
But then you watch him pitch and realize he's just a funky dude that slings across his body. Sometimes that means filthy armside run and sink. Sometimes that means meatballs over the middle of the plate. Recency bias suggests he's much better this time against Philadelphia in the playoffs.
5. Speaking of San Diego… I really need you guys to care about the Dodgers series. I know you don't want to because most everyone reading this lives east of the Mississippi. But I'm telling you guys. On my life with dead on balls accuracy, there is some tremendous drama unfolding in the late night game.
RDT talked about it here and here and it's absolutely delightful
The controversy stems from Machado striking out the half inning before, and then using his frustration to mask bad behavior towards Dave Roberts and blaming it on Jack Flaherty hitting his teammate. I'm not Sally Jesse Rafael but that's the general ethos of the Machado beef, which is kinda immaterial to the broader point that he's a great villain.
Some highlights from Ken Rosenthal's profile earlier today:
This is a player who in
2014 triggered a benches-clearing incident when he objected to a hard tag by Josh Donaldson.
2016 charged the mound and threw punches at the Royals’ Yordano Ventura
2017 caused the injury that brought on the end of Dustin Pedroia’s career with a hard slide that some perceived as dirty.2018 National League Championship Series, when he twice slid questionably into Brewers shortstop Orlando Arcia in Game 3 and clipped first baseman Jesús Aguilar running out a grounder in Game 4.
He also generated controversy during that series for explaining his failure to run out a grounder by telling me in an interview on FS1, “Obviously, I’m not going to change, I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle’ and run down the line and slide to first base … that’s just not my personality, that’s not my cup of tea, that’s not who I am.”
Chef's kiss quality villain in my opinion and that plays perfectly against the clean cut Dodgers. Like you're honestly trying to get someone to think poorly about Mookie and Shohei and Freddie and all those soft smiling sweethearts? Get fuckin serious Manny.
A lot of people are now curious if there will be retaliation, etc. I think it's very much on the table but definitely not in a close game. Should there be a large crooked number in either direction after the 7th, then I think Machado gets his head blown off by Michael Kopech or the like. Otherwise I think this is something we just keep talking about with no resolution.
In either scenario, I can say confidently that we're getting a much more balanced series now than I would have ever expected in the first 25 weeks of the season. To call the Padres a surprise would be a great understatement and that's before I even consider Xander and Cronenworth so let's just keep it moving.
6. Bet the unders for every DS game for the rest of the playoffs and don't think twice. I don't like that move in game 1 and I'm general hesitant in elimination games. But I've decided to shotgun the rest of the DS round and I'm encouraging you guys to join me.
7. The Royals could easily be up 2-0 and I know that's not how the game works but worth pointing out here guys. It really is. The Royals outplayed the Yankees in Yankee stadium over the collective two games and that's indisputable. Now they go home to what can colloquially be described as an extremely horny fanbase that comfortably dominates whatever postseason they're cheering for. Rumor has it Taylor is throwing out the first pitch while the Kelce brothers tag team the foul ball lines. Energy should be popping and Seth Lugo back on the mound where he's dominated this season. Mix in Cole Ragans only throwing 87 pitches last night and I think you could seriously call this a coin flip towards Kansas City with a straight face.
8. I had no idea Aaron Judge is the worst player in postseason history. Did you?
9. I think Rob Manfred should have the constitutional authority to override one DS a year and make it 7 games. He should declare it before the 3rd game and he should be required to force one series to go an extra two games just because we know 5 simply isn't enough to determine a valid winner. In that case I nominate the Tigers and the Guardians to be the series this year that goes 7 because it's simply that tight.
Yesterday was yet another instant classic in a library year of amazing performances.
Skubal adding his scoreless streak to 20 innings. Clase giving up his first 3-run homer ever to a pinch hitter when moments before there were 2 outs and nobody on. Countless forgettable faces representing two underwhelming markets with overwhelming passion.
It's been an absolute delight to watch and it should only get better with rested bullpens today, and yet another argument in favor of spraying unders the next couple days. Whatever the total, I don't think they can get low enough.
10. BONUS I'm still uncomfortable with a 3-game playoff series on the road to kick things off but overall can we just take a minute/2 seconds to enjoy the fact that the playoffs have been historically outstanding. I know you probably hate his guts but do the sport a favor and tip your cap to Rob Manfred just one time. These are his rule changes and it's objectively working out well.
Thanks Rob.