Dak Prescott And Mike McCarthy Are The NFL's Most Profitable Duo On Extra Rest: NFL Week 5 Stats And Trends

Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.

Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday morning). 

LW: 3-2

YTD: 13-7

New York Jets (2-2, 2-2 ATS) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-0, 4-0 ATS)

9:30 AM on NFL Network (London)

MIN -2.5

T 40.5

Aaron Rodgers has always been great off a loss in his career, going 44-25 ATS (64%). And he's been even better recently, going 16-4 ATS in his last 20 games off a loss. Look for the Jets to bounce back and hand the Vikings their first loss. 

The Stats Say: Jets

Baltimore Ravens (2-2, 2-2 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-3, 2-2 ATS)

1 PM on CBS

BAL -2.5

T 50.5

Joe Burrow is always a good bet when getting points, he's 18-9 ATS as an underdog in his career. And this total is just too high for an AFC North matchup. In AFC North battles with a total of 48 or higher, the under is 13-4. 

The Stats Say: Bengals and Under

Buffalo Bills (3-1, 2-2 ATS) @ Houston Texans (3-1, 0-3-1 ATS)

1 PM on CBS

BUF -1

T 47.5

This should be a close game, and the stats show that favors the Bills. Josh Allen is 14-6 ATS in games with a spread of less than 3 points. And CJ Stroud is 3-10 ATS when he's either a favorite or slight underdog (less than 2 points). 

The Stats Say: Bills

Green Bay Packers (2-2, 2-2 ATS) @ Los Angeles Rams (1-3, 1-3 ATS)

4:25 PM on CBS

GB -3

T 48

There's a couple of good signs for the over here. The over is 8-3 when Sean McVay is a home underdog and the over is 11-3 in the Packers last 14 road games. This one has shootout written all over it. 

The Stats Say: Over

Dallas Cowboys (2-2, 1-2-1 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1, 3-1 ATS)

8:20 PM on NBC

PIT -2.5

T 43

The Cowboys are coming off a Thursday Night Football game, which is great news for them because Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy are an incredible duo on extra rest. Over the last 20 years, Dak is the league's most profitable QB on extra rest (18-4 ATS) and Mike McCarthy is the league's most profitable head coach on extra rest (35-19-3 ATS). 

The Stats Say: Cowboys

If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.