David Andrews, One of the Best Patriots Players of His Generation, Might Have Snapped His Last Football

Maddie Meyer. Getty Images.

I have a general rule when it comes to athletes injuries. One that applies to all sports. It is based on a lifetime of careful  observation. It's the inverse of my rule on winter storm forecasts, in which I take the low estimate and cut it in half. So that reports say we're expecting 3-to-6 inches of snow, I prepare for an inch and a half. With injuries, it's the opposite. Then I take the high estimate and add 50%. So when the initial reports say they expect a guy to be out 3-to-6 weeks, I count on it being nine. Both of these have served me equally well and established my reputation as the handsome genius you know and love. 

And yet there are times when even adding 50% to an estimate doesn't feel pessimistic enough. Like when David Andrews left the field Sunday, it felt bad. Just on an instinctual level, it felt like this could be the end of the line for a guy who could've retired at the end of last season. And whose return this year was a pleasant surprise. As it turns out, that gut feeling was correct:

I'm assuming this is true. Not just because Ian Rapoport has a solid track record of getting these things right. And not even just due my own personal and mathematical approach to such matters. But mainly because this is the kind of year the Pats seem to be having. Really, the kind of half-decade they're having. It's never just raining in Foxboro lately. It's Old Testament-level of pouring. Constantly. 

As far as whether this is the end of Andrews' career, I'll kick that can down the road and wait until he makes it official. But it certainly seems like it will be. For now, let's just address what this means to the 2024 Patriots. This is a team that can't get anything accomplished offensively because the O-line is such a trash fire. The two things this unit has had going for it were Michael Onwenu at right tackle and Andrews at center. Prior to leaving nine plays into the game at San Francisco, Andrews had taken every snap on offense. And likely will never take another. 

It hasn't always been smooth sailing. With rookie Layden Robinson to his starboard and a combination of Sidy Sow and Michael Jordan on his port side, Andrews has given up a sack and four hurries in 105 pass plays, with two penalties. Which is a lot by his standards. At his main job of run blocking, his Pro Football Focus grade is only slightly higher than his rookie season, which remains the lowest of his career. Having a rotating collection of mostly ineffective linemates around him hasn't helped at all. But regardless of who the blame belongs to (>cough< Elliot Wolf >cough cough<), the pats run game has been wildly inconsist. or too consistent, when you realize it's trending down through first four games. < p>

So this is just a devestating blow to a team that has already met their quota of devestation. And blowing. Like in 2019, when Andrews had to miss the entire season due to blood clots in his lungs and Ted Karras filled in at center, there is going to be a dropoff without him. Nick Leverett is the next man up. He was a backup in Tampa Bay for two seasons. Missed all of last year. And while pulling the bulk of the center duties in preseason, didn't make any major mistakes that I can recall. The snaps were all clean unless I'm forgetting something. And last week against the Niners didn't allow any pressures:

But there's only one David Andrews on this roster. Team captain. Member of the Two Ring Club. The rock the O-line has been built around since 2015. And likely never again. 

Best of luck on the surgery. But luck hasn't been supply very much around these parts. May it always be Shirtless O'Clock in David Andrews' world: