The Ravens Are The Ultimate Hungry Dog This Week: Stats And Trends For NFL Week 3
Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday morning).
Last Week: 3-2
YTD: 5-5
Philadelphia Eagles (1-1, 1-1 ATS) @ New Orleans Saints (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
NO -2.5
T 49.5
I'm looking at the Eagles team total under 23.5 here. The Eagles offense may just not be that good anymore. In their last 8 road games, the Eagles are averaging just 18 PPG. And the Saints defense has been solid at home, allowing just 17 PPG over the last two years in New Orleans. Add in that AJ Brown is likely out and the Eagles may struggle to get to 24 points.
The Stats Say: Eagles under 23.5 points
Los Angeles Chargers (2-0, 2-0 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
PIT -1.5
T 35.5
The Steelers love close games. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 21-8 ATS in games with a spread of less than 2 points. And over an even larger sample, they are 61-37 ATS in games with a spread of 3 points or less. I have learned that betting against Mike Tomlin is just usually not a good strategy.
The Stats Say: Steelers
Baltimore Ravens (0-2, 0-2 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1, 1-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
BAL -1.5
T 48.5
At 0-2, the Ravens REALLY need to win this week. And they could be primed for a bounce back effort. This is a classic "hungry dogs run faster" spot. 0-2 teams who made the playoffs the previous season are 27-16-3 (63%) ATS in Week 3.
The Stats Say: Ravens
Detroit Lions (1-1, 1-1 ATS) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-1, 2-0 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
DET -2.5
T 52.5
The Lions have been a great bounce back team in the Campbell-Goff era. They've covered 8 straight games coming off a loss and, overall, Jared Goff is 17-8 ATS after a loss with Detroit.
The Stats Say: Lions
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0, 1-1 ATS) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-1, 1-1 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
KC -3.5
T 46.5
I talked last season about how profitable primetime unders were. They tailed off a little bit late in the season, but have still been an overall profitable bet, especially early in the season. After the under hitting on Thursday, primetime unders are now 23-9 in September since 2021.
The Stats Say: Under
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.