NFL Survival Pool Journey - Mapping Out The Season And Your Week 3 Pick
I'd like to thank all three of my readers who are still alive in their survivor pool leauges with me. When I thought about how fun it might be to write weekly survivor league blogs, I didn't exactly take into account that this would be the first season since 1980 in which the largest favorite by Vegas spreads lost in the first two weeks. Back in the day the Rams lost as -9 favorites in Week 1 and the Patriots at -8 in Week 2.
2024 pretty much ran this back after 44 years. If Week 1 was a blood bath, then Week 2 was the invasion of Normady. My league started at 901 entries and we now have just 223 currently alive.
How does it feel to make past the first two weeks of death?
Yeah, that about sums it up. But even though I made it across the beach, I'm well aware the journey has just begun. Going into Week 3 I have the Seahawks and Chargers used as laid out in last week's blog.
Let's talk a little game theory here. I keep hearing people say "don't overthink it - you can't plan too far ahead". I'm guessing these are the same people who took Cincinnati in Week 1 or Baltimore in Week 2. I do agree with this to some extent though. Injuries are going to happen - like with Tua in Week 2. So you might be able to take advantage of situations like this that arise. But man, there's some tough weeks out there with one "rock solid" favorite. For instance Week 10 at the moment is my Chiefs week. And because of that, I'm reserving Chicago at home vs Carolina in Week 5. And the Eagles are stamped into Week 14 vs Carolina as well on byemageddon.
But here's a fun wrinkle us survivors find ourselves with. Anyone still alive finds themselves in a pool of people who have twice faded "just win this week" logic. We've twice picked a winning team that was at least not the most popular pick in order to give ourselves a chance to watch swaths of contestants fall off the waterfall. We hoped it would happen once. No one imagined it would happen twice.
With this in mind - is the sneaky play to actually pick the favorite this week? Since everyone alive has faded them so far, will everyone stick with finding a slightly hipster option in hopes that others will board the Week 3 Titanic? I mean - that's pretty much what I did. Or is everyone asking themselves these very questions before selecting either the 49ers or Bengals (both at -7.5)? Are the favorites the new hipster picks? The battle of wits has begun!
Before I reveal my pick, let's map out the rest of the season based on Week 2. Made a lot of changes already based on last week so - once again - this is all in LIGHT pencil.
Alright everyone, huddle up. Let's talk out this week's viable options.
Bengals (-7.5) vs Commanders
I think this is going to be the darling pick of the week. No one is getting fooled twice by the Bengals after they lost in Week 1 since they are still in the pool so the only sticky memory of this team is that they lost by a inch to the Super Bowl champs on the road. Meanwhile the Commanders couldn't muster a touchdown vs the Giants. In a way, I wish I was taking the easy road here. I wish I were taking the Bengals. But I have to stick with the gameplan. The chain reaction of using them this week would lead me to having to switch out the Chiefs in Week 10. That's a brutal week of matchups. I need to hope the same people that bravely held off the biggest weekly favorites for two weeks will succumb to the safety of an "easy win".
49ers (-7.5) AT Rams
This is your other largest spread of the week as it stands now. While the 49ers lost to the Vikings, pretty much everyone on the Rams aside from Stafford is either on IR or is IR adjacent. I'm just not quite sure how good San Francisco is this year. Certainly better than the Rams. But as you can see from my selections, I try to stay away from road teams when I can. Plus, this isn't exactly a tough week so taking a top team (if they indeed still are) should be avoided.
Tampa Bay (-7) vs Broncos
Baker Mayfield is for real. It's time to embrace this fact. Haven't heard a peep out of Colin Cowherd lately on him. This could be a great selection to sneak in while the rest of your league takes stock in the 49ers or Bengals. Just remember - they've faded the big spreads twice before. But the Broncos may just be a team to follow. Bo Nix looks pretty damn bad. Like a fly going around in circles with no plan. Just reactions. I was hoping to save them for Week 17 when they host the Panthers, but that's so far away. I think another matchup might make itself available. Definitely putting the Bucs as a contender for Week 3.
Jets (-6) vs Patriots
This was my original pick before last week, but I'm balking. The Patriots have shown themselves to be a gritty team which is much better than everyone was expecting. Add on the fact that it's a divisional game and I think I'll just stay away for now. I need to see more out of Rodgers and less out of Jacoby. Can't imagine I'll call the Patriots from the pen at any point, but if Rodgers gets it together like I feel he can we might have some use for the Jets down the line.
Raiders (-5.5) AT Panthers
I could easily see this being the most popular pick this week. How many players in the pool have just faded the Panthers as their only line of logic? Probably a lot. It also isn't the biggest spread either. I'm staying away from this game, but for a different reason. Quite simply, they benched Bryce Young. Make all the jokes about Andy Dalton you want, but this leaves a big unknown. Just like Malik Willis last week. Hopefully Andy gets it done and a large swath of the pool perishes under the water.
(probably not though)
Browns (-6) vs Giants
Another contender. I'm not sure if I can use the Browns in another week. Week 5 at Washington perhaps, but it's really the only week I'm confident in Chicago at the moment (home vs Panthers). This would take some balls with the other cupcake selections at my disposal. But it might just be the zag that avoids the large crowds and threads the needle for thinking longer term.
THE PICK!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I was torn between the Browns and Bucs and decided to listen to the "don't look too far down the road" advice while at the same time staying away from what I anticipate will be the biggest draws (Cincinnati, San Francisco, and Las Vegas). But the Giants showed too much fight in Week 2 for me to want to risk putting it on a Browns team that often shows none. Plus, I can use them in Week 13 in Denver if they get playing to their potential.
Oh yeah - as you can see - I think Denver stiiiiinks. Bo Nix is the new Mitch Trubisky. A severely over drafted first round QB who's coach inexplicably fell in love with. He's bad. Maybe he'll get better. But he's not now. And the Bucs defense is going to keep him in the same gear he's been in through two games - neutral.
FINE PRINT - If anything material changes I reserve the right to change my pick before my Saturday Night deadline. I'll tweet any change I make. But these blogs will come out Thursday morning after hearing most pools close before the Thursday night game. That is - if I'm still treading.
See you all next week. I hope! Keep kicking those legs.