Now Might Be a Good Time to Get in on the Ground Floor of Panicking About Caleb Williams
The things I am about to say bring me no joy. I have no axe to grind with the Barstool Chicago people. I have no animosity toward the Bears. Hold no lingering resentment in my heart over some old slight their franchise or fanbase ever did to mine. Not even Super Bowl XX. Even Young Balls me understood that was the best single season team of all time and the Patriots had no business being under the same dome as them. (I just choose to remember that one magical moment when the Pats were up 3-0 and repress the memory of the next 46 unanswered points.) So when it comes to the following, I am saddened, not gladdened, to be pointing these things out.
Simply put, the Bears have a Caleb Williams problem right now. And Bears fans have a potential disaster on their hands. Like Madame Curie handling uranium and carrying around test tubes of the stuff because she was so excited about it, without realizing it was killing her.
Of course you can easily dismiss this as hysterical, Skip Bayless-level hot takery. Just another OK Boomer getting way out over his skis and drawing definitive conclusions lacking in all nuance. Inciting panic for no reason. Because some men just want to watch the world burn. And if Williams was the vessel into which my team placed all my hopes and dreams, I'd be saying exactly that. I'd be putting the blame on his coaches and offensive line and the weapons around him. I admit that.
But to do so is to ignore some very key points. The first being the 10 billion times this offseason where we heard that Williams lucked out by going to Chicago. That this was [altogether]:
... "best situation ever for a No. 1 overall pick." A middle-of-the-pack offense. Two receivers with 1,300-plus yards in 2023. A rookie receiver who was the 10th overall pick. A 700-yard tight end. A veteran coaching staff. As opposed to having to step into the first stage of a long rebuild, like virtually every other quarterback to come off the board first.
By the same token, Williams was supposed to be ideal for the Bears. The pluperfect example of an NFL-ready, plug-and-play QB1, with three years and 37 games of experience at two different QB factory schools. If ever there was a quarterback who wasn't going to need time and patience, whose learning curve was going to be an escalator, Caleb Williams was that guy.
But history has a nasty habit of messing with sure things. And two games in, it's showing no mercy to Williams and the Bears:
NBC Chicago - Things were supposed to look different with Caleb Williams. But through two games, the Bears' new-look offense has looked a lot like the type that has been destroying quarterbacks in Chicago for decades.
Williams has thrown for just 267 yards through two games, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. During Sunday night's 19-13 loss to the Houston Texans, Williams was sacked seven times, hit 11, and pressured on 23 of 48 dropbacks. Williams was pressured 36 times, and non-Williams runners gained 1.6 yards per carry. …
There were very few easy throws to get Williams in rhythm, the play-calling was suspect, and the adjustments either didn't occur or didn't work.
Either way, it has taken just two weeks for the "best situation ever for a No. 1 overall pick" to look like a toxic safety hazard that could damage Williams's development instead of accelerating his takeoff.
Through two games, Williams is:
- 26th in completion %, at 56.1%
- 29th in passing yards, with 267
- 31st in yards per attempt, with 4.0
- 29th in passer rating, at 53.0
- 30th in QBR, at 23.9
In all fairness to him, being tied for the lead in sacks with 9 isn't helping. And his spray charts bear that out. Look where his completions have been. Via NextGen Stats:
Especially note the throws of more than 15 air yards. According to these, he's 0-for-10 with two interceptions. While ignoring the middle of the field beyond 5 yards altogether. Indicating he's opting for the safest, low risk/low reward throw every time he drops back.
But escapability and making plays when the protection falls apart was one of the major reasons he was considered a generational talent. In some pundits estimation, one of the best prospects of all time. Up there with John Elway. These are the charts of a backup who had to throw his helmet on in the middle of a game and was told not to screw anything up. Not a franchise-changer, as he was advertised.
Though there were some dissenting opinions on how franchise-changey he'd be. Though not many. Here's one, whom I mentioned during the pre-draft process:
This is a former NFL scout who had a 4th round projection on Williams. And who said his ceiling is as a bottom half of the league starter. Meaning he's either a genius or a madman. But it's funny how often someone turns out to be both.
All this said, I'll concede that Bears fans like Big Cat are right to not lose faith in their guy. There are a lot of things going wrong that are beyond Williams' control. Everyone makes that jump from BCS to NFL on their own unique time table. No matter how "ready" they are or how "best situation ever" their situation is. And two games is preposterously early to start freaking out about an athlete you've pinned all your hopes on. But I'd recommend you start loosening up your Panic Button-pushing arm as soon as possible. You might be needing it sooner than you thought.