The Bengals Are Primed For A Bounce Back: Stats And Trends For NFL Week 2
Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday morning).
Last week the stats got off to a subpar 2-3 start so we'll look to have a winning week this time around.
New Orleans Saints (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
DAL -6.5
T 45.5
Two teams with incredibly strong Week 1 performances facing off here in Dallas. I am personally still not a believer in the Saints this year, and the stats back that up. For starters, Dak thrives as a home favorite, covering 10 of his last 14 in that spot. Dennis Allen, one of the worst coaches in football, is seemingly allergic to winning streaks. He's 5-16-2 ATS coming off a win. And then if we zoom out and look at a league wide trend, teams who won by 27 or more points in Week 1 (like the Saints) are just 5-14 ATS in Week 2.
The Stats Say: Cowboys
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ Detroit Lions (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
DET -7
T 51.5
A playoff rematch, we've got a bunch of pro-Bucs trends here courtesy of Baker Mayfield. With the Bucs, Baker is 8-1 ATS on the road, 9-3 as an underdog, and 7-1 as a road underdog. Luckily for him, all three of those trends apply in this spot. Definitely think the Bucs can keep this one within a touchdown.
The Stats Say: Bucs
Los Angeles Rams (0-1, 0-1 ATS) @ Arizona Cardinals (0-1, 1-0 ATS)
4:05 PM on FOX
ARI -1.5
T 49
Teams playing in back to back road games to start the season, like the Rams, are often undervalued by the public in Week 2. Teams in that spot are 12-3 ATS in Week 2 since 2019. And historically speaking, Sean McVay has owned the Cardinals, covering 12 of 15 career games against them.
The Stats Say: Rams
Cincinnati Bengals (0-1, 0-1 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
KC -6
T 47.5
Burrow and Mahomes always play each other tight, with all four of their career matchups being decided by exactly 3 points. Plus, there's some more positive bounce back trends here for the Bengals. Burrow is 14-6-1 ATS coming off a loss in his career (10-3 on the road). And if we look league wide, Week 1 favorites of 6 points or more points that lost (like the Bengals) have bounced back to go 19-6 ATS in Week 2.
The Stats Say: Bengals
Chicago Bears (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ Houston Texans (1-0, 0-1 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
HOU -6.5
T 45.5
If there's one spot CJ Stroud has struggled in during his short career, it's as a favorite. He's just 3-6 ATS when laying points. And while it's a little bit unfair to apply to this current Texans team, Houston historically is a terrible primetime team with just a 12-28-2 ATS in those games.
The Stats Say: Bears
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.