"I Hate My Fantasy Football Team" - Week 1 Report
Let's face the reality here. Your fantasy of demolishing all your friends every week on the app with the little numbers next to faces is a farce. It's probably not going to happen. The fact of that matter is: you suck at this. And that's OK. We all do. The point of this blog will be to recap the past week so you can lament on all the players that screwed you over. Because that's how this game works. Of course I'll have my takes too. But you need a safe space to commiserate on drafting bums like Mark Andrews while our opponent plays 16th round Isiah Likely in Week 1.
For those who don't know - I used to be a fantasy writer for one of my favorite analysts - Scott Barrett - over at Fantasy Points where I put to use my personal creation of fantasy football Wins Above Replacement model that estimates how many wins your fantasy team would expect to have based on a single player vs his position's replacement level. If you're into the real statistical minutia you can check out the link, but most will just be interested to take a peek at the Week 1 leaderboard above which ranks the best fantasy players of the season so far (draft stock agnostic). Expect an update on this every week.
Let's get into Week 1.
How dumb are we for thinking there would be a lot of good tight ends this year?
I know. It's one week. But this was just a complete turd even for tight ends. Here are the top-15 of Week 1 listed in order of PPR points along with each player's average league start percentage based on ESPN leagues.
What the hell? I also ran a correlation on the top-12 started tight ends production and there's a -.376 relationship which - one week sample size aside - is a moderately strong negative correlation. You were better off starting the lowest of the top-12 started tight ends because that's how the fantasy gods will have it.
Sam Laporta. Travis Kelce. Trey McBride. George Kittle. Some of your more heavy hitter favorite starts with over 90% of teams putting em out there had a max score of 8.5. In PPR. When you have two Saints tight ends getting more fantasy points than anyone actually started aside from Kyle Pitts that's how you know this game is fucking bullshit.
Speaking of Pitts. I did a preseason blog trying to identify top suspects for who would be this season's Troll of the Year player and I regret not putting Pitts on that list because he seems primed to break hearts once again. I have him circled now. But if you have Pitts you have no choice but to give him faith in him scoring a touchdown being possibly repeatable. I mean Kirk Cousins loves him some tight end check downs so you have that going for you as long as his foot stays in one piece.
What about my guy, Dalton Kincaid? Where was he all game? I was very high on his this year since the Bills don't really have a focal point at wide receiver, but it looks pretty clear the Cardinals Defensive Coordinator was going against him in his league:
Wide Receiver Duds
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 3/6 for 13 yards. Yuck. 99.7% started so congrats to the .3 percent of managers who passed away between their draft and now
Chris Olave - 2/2 for 11 yards. In fantasy leagues that only allows starting players on the Saints, Olave would be the 10th highest scoring player.
Puka Nacua - I know every Nacua drafter was tossing around the idea of investing in him or getting Cupp on a bargain and only because of the decision you made did Puka's fate get sealed. IR. it's just how it goes. For those who also had to face Cupp and lost I want you to know that I'd love to offer you a shoulder to lean on. But I don't know you, so you're all on your miserable own.
Marvin Harrison Jr. - 1/3 for 4 yards. What the hell was that? I saw a film bro's clip of his routes and this dude showed all the elusiveness and quick twitch movement as a recreation league Zamboni. What's your dad up to my guy? Is he free on Sundays?
OK let's lighten the mood a little bit because I do have a couple takes I'd like to pat myself on the back about. For Week 1 at least.
Saquon Barkley is the real deal
Gonna take a win when I can and say I LOVED Saquon leaving the desolate Giants and going to a team that had a great offense and needed a three-down back capable of production at the goal line that DeAandre Swift just couldn't do. Why risk Jalen getting hurt on a tush push when you have a dude like Saquon? Kept him for $43/$200 in my home auction keeper league and would brag about my ability to draft good fantasy running backs if I didn't also keep CMC for $70. Gotta stay humble.
Saquon might legitimately be the only work horse running back in the league. There's no way the 49ers aren't going to utilize Jordan Mason given his production and McCaffrey's tendinitis. Especially if they keep winning without him. Hopefully of all the things I'm wrong about this season, this take will be one of them.
Josh Allen Forever
Hell yeah - another take I can celebrate at least for one week and that's Josh Allen always being worth a first round fantasy pick. #5 overall and you can understand why the model has him that high as offense was pretty lackluster league-wide in Week 1. Tua was the only 300-yard passer. Saying Allen has been valued as a first round pick isn't to say I would recommend drafting him there, but he should reward whoever grabbed him in the third round.
Kicker Party!
Sent this little stat nugget to Big Cat for PMT and pretty much the only reason I won in Week 1 was because I had Boswell, the Bears DST and Saquon (absolutely NOTHING else). But the fact that four kickers scored 20+ points in Week 1 is more evidence to explain why having Josh Allen is always the fiscally prudent move to make. Pour one out for Brandon Aubrey owners who lost by less than five points after the dude BELTED a 66-yarder at the end of the first half that was called back. I'm mad on your behalf that McCarthy didn't give him a chance at the 71-yarder.
That's good for a first week. Will be back for Week 2. Let's end with a little competition. I ran some code to assemble the worst possible fantasy team in PPR. Only players started in 30 percent of leagues or more are eligible so we have a realistic squad. How many out of nine did you start? Highest score wins the competition so at least you can be a winner of something.
Total - 30.2 Points (rounded up)
Now to twist the knife on anyone who's team was a major dud, here's a team assembly you could have picked up on the waiver wire Sunday morning (or technically Thursday for Likely, whatever).
Total - 164