Avoid Big Favorites in Week 1: Stats And Trends For NFL Week 1
Football is back. Barstool Sports Advisors is back. And the stats lab is back. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday morning).
I'll keep track of my record every week for transparency's sake. Last year the stats were hot as I finished with a 47-34 record. Let's have another profitable year!
New England Patriots (4-13, 5-11-1 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (9-8, 7-8-2 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
CIN -7.5
T 40.5
It's not usually a good idea to take big favorites in Week 1. It's just hard to exactly know who's great and who sucks so early in the season. Week 1 underdogs of more than a touchdown are 25-13 ATS. And we know the Bengals have been slow starters of late. Burrow is just 2-6 ATS in his first two games of the season. The Bengals may win the Super Bowl this year and the Patriots may be the worst team in the league, but for this week… take the points.
The Stats Say: Patriots
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8, 9-8 ATS) @ Miami Dolphins (11-6, 10-7 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
MIA -3.5
T 49
The Dolphins may not be built for the playoffs, but they are built for September. Under Mike McDaniel, Miami is 6-1 ATS in September. They are also 9-4 ATS in 1 PM home games where it seems like they score 40 points every time.
The Stats Say: Dolphins
Tennessee Titans (6-11, 7-9-1 ATS) @ Chicago Bears (7-10, 8-7-2 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
CHI -4
T 44.5
Caleb Williams and the Bears have a ton of hype this season. But history shows they are not a good bet here. Quarterbacks who went #1 overall are just 7-20 ATS in their first start since 1970. The Bears could be a playoff team this year, but I don't think they'll start as hot as everyone expects.
The Stats Say: Titans
Dallas Cowboys (12-5, 10-7 ATS) @ Cleveland Browns (11-6, 10-6-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
CLE -2.5
T 41
Unders should be a pretty strong bet across all games this week. Since the NFL shortened the preseason, unders are 32-16 in Week 1. And I especially like this under here, as the Browns have gone under in 10 of their last 13 home games. DeShaun Watson may just stink and the Cowboys offense may take a step back this year, but these are two very strong defenses.
The Stats Say: Under
Los Angeles Rams (10-7, 10-6-1 ATS) @ Detroit Lions (12-5, 12-5 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
DET -3.5
T 50.5
A couple of strong trends for Jared Goff here. Lion Gosling is a perfect 7-0 ATS in Week 1 games in his career. And he's 25-9 ATS in his last 34 games played indoors. I also am just personally low on the Rams this year and think they could be one of the league's biggest disappointments.
The Stats Say: Lions
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.