Paolo Banchero Suggesting The Magic Should Easily Be One Of The Best Teams In The East This Season Isn't As Crazy As It Sounds

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One of the more surprising teams of the 2023-24 NBA season was for sure the Orlando Magic. Heading into the season Vegas had their win total at around 37.5 wins, so the fact that they finished 47-35 and were within striking distance of a top 2 seed was certainly impressive and then factor in how young they are as a team and in my opinion it stands out even more.

Usually in the NBA when you're a rebuilding team or a team on the rise, you get one "surprise" season. Teams overlook you because of what you may have been in the past and it allows you to sneak up on the league and stack wins. We see it all the time every season in both conferences, especially with young teams who are in the early stages of their rebuild. What we know about these teams that make this sudden leap in wins/the standings is that they tend to check a few boxes

- Elite defense (3rd)

- Legit size at every position (check)

- A stud #1 option (check)

- Good coaching (check)

- Dominate shitty teams (28-7 last year vs .500 or worse)

If you look at the current Magic, they check off pretty much all of those options, so their rise last year shouldn't be that shocking as we head into this season, and it's why this reaction I see calling Paolo delusional doesn't make much sense. Do I think the Magic are ready to be on the NBA Champion Celtics (1-2) level? Not quite. But what we did see is the fact that they play everyone tough, which matters. 

Remember, the Magic ended last season with the 3rd best defense in the entire NBA (DRTG of110.8), barely trailing the Celts (110.6). They were 4th in opponent's points per game (108.4) and led the NBA playoffs in opponent's points per game (95.9), despite losing 7 to the Cavs. The foundation is absolutely there when it comes to establishing themselves as a homecourt advantage level team, and now it's all about taking the next step.

For the Magic, that means figuring out their mostly dogshit offense. Their biggest issue last season was shooting, ranking 30th in the league in 3PM (11.0), 29th in 3PA (31.3) and 24th in 3P% (35.2). Unfortunately in 2024, you have to be able to shoot 3s if you want to contend. Their outside shooting being even worse in the playoffs (10.3 3PM, 30%) was a huge reason why they barely cracked 100 a game, and for them to make this sort of leap this season as Paolo is suggesting, that has to improve. That's why a signing like KCP (40% shooter) is worth it for a team like ORL. While they still have questions at point guard, i think finding a way to at least get to a league average offense (22nd last year) is all they really need to do to crash that Top 3-4 seed group. 

Is it crazy to suggest with their offseason additions and then some internal improvement from Paolo, Franz, Suggs, WCJ etc that they couldn't get up to like 15th? That's where the Lakers sat last year and they couldn't shoot for shit either. Becoming a league average offense at worst would also help with the other struggle areas of the 2024 Magic. They struggled on the road (18-23) and they struggled against good teams (19-28), which are two issues you usually see with young teams. Now a year older and having broken through to the playoffs, I don't think it's crazy to suggest both of those areas improve this season which could make all the difference in the world when it comes to closing that 2-3 game gap from the 5th seed to the 2nd seed. 

This is a team that went 2-2 vs MIL, 3-1 vs NYK, 2-2 vs CLE, and 2-1 vs IND last year. The only other Top 6 seeds in the East they struggled with were BOS (1-2) and PHI (0-3). So while on the surface you may see Paolo's comments and be confused, when you actually look at how they're trending, I don't think it's all that crazy at all.

What makes this intriguing is the Magic's "surprise" season is over. They aren't sneaking up on anyone moving forward, and the results once the rest of the league makes that switch can vary. The Atlanta Hawks had a similar surprise season in 2020-21 when they made a leap from 20 wins the year prior to 41-31 and a 5 seed/ECF run. They did it by locking in defensively and it took a bunch of teams by surprise. Since then? Win totals of 43, 41, and 36 while never making it out of the Play In. Once they were no longer catching teams by surprise, their advantage was gone. It's also sort of like what we're currently seeing with the Kings where maybe their leap isn't as legit as we thought.

The other end of the spectrum is of course a team like OKC, who not only made the leap into legit contention, but look like a team that is going to be in the conversation for the foreseeable future. If you look at their process, it's not too different from what we're seeing with the Magic. Elite defense, great size at every position, elite #1 option, good coaching etc. They just happened to be MUCH further along in the whole "shooting" department, but to me, that's not too far away for the Magic. 

So clown on Paolo Banchero if you wish, just don't be surprised if we get to next Spring and the Magic are hosting at least 1 playoff round.