The Fog of Fantasy WAR - Allow Me To Be A Resource For Fantasy Football Analytics And A Place To Commiserate When It All Goes To Hell Anyway
BLOGS AWAY!! It's fantasy football WAR season.
If you're in the market for fantasy football content that blends sophisticated, state of the art analytics with an outlet to vent read when you inevitably get screwed over by randomness anyway, then please consider following my blogs. I devised a way to estimate how many wins above replacement (WAR) a fantasy player is likely to provide his team manager in seasonal leagues which is covered in detail in the above blog back when I wrote for Fantasy Points. While stuffy and technical, I believe it provides guidance in making plus EV plays in fantasy home league drafts you can rest your laurels on once everything goes to hell.
Because everything will absolutely go to hell. That's fantasy football baby. Despite how much artillary you bring to battle, randomness is the fog of war that largely evens things out. And there's not enough people out there offering the appropriate prescription of therapy to help us cope. You see, unlike most fantasy follows you might have out there, I'm not here to tell you everything is going to be alright.
Here's what I can offer you and your fake football squad. I'm going to give you an edge to prepare your battilion for battle in your seasonal home/work leagues while at the same time incorporate enough sad humor to ease the pain when Keith from Accounts Payable brags about how smart he was for drafting Puka Nacua in the 16th round on autodraft. Needless to say, Keith from Accounts Payable still hasn't remitted last year's league dues. And since Barstool is now partnering with Draft Kings I might whip up some daily/best ball content as well with the same… let's call it… anihilitics vibes.
So let's do some quick draft prep today. We are going to look at this year's full PPR ADP and my WAR rankings from last season to help us identify which players might be over or undervalued. The beauty of my WAR model is that it standardizes points by converting them to wins provided (to you and your fake fantasy team, not their real team) which allows ranking players worth across positions in a way points can't. You would never consider a quarterback scoring 20 points as valuable as 20 points from your tight end, WAR accounts for all that.
Today we're going to run a quick check to compare each player in the top-60 of PPR ADP vs their 2023 end of season WAR rank to help prepare for draft day. Obviously, things change for many players year to year, so this isn't some end-all-be-all thing, but it's a starting point.
Round 1 of ADP
Here are the top-12 ranked players in ADP according to Fantasy Pros from a few days ago. the bright green bar shows us the difference in rank from 2023 WAR and 2024 ADP. For example, Justin Jefferson is being drafted 240 spots above what he was worth last season. Jamar Chase 35 spots. We all know the reasons for their struggles last year so this isn't going to be as helpful for our purposes. But here are some takeaways from Round 1.
All chalk for top-3
If you have a top-3 pick this season, maybe don't try to be a hero and stick with one of these tried and true blue chips who come into 2024 with no reason to think there will be a drop off. Although I might make one slight exception…
Buy Breece!
Despite playing on one of the NFL's premier laughing stock offenses last season this dude was still the seventh best player in all fantasy football. Just insane. And while the market values him pretty darn close to my model (8.5 ADP) I think theres plenty reason he not only beats that but his 2023 WAR as well. I'm taking him at #4 and maybe even ahead of JaMarr at #3.
Wide Receivers are getting just a little bit too much love
AMSB, AJ, and Puka all seem to be in similar situations this season and WAR estimates they are being slightly overated by your respective Keiths from Accounting.
Wild Cards
Jefferson, Robinson, and Wilson are all pretty much impossible to compare from last year. I can't imagine JJ to JJ is going to be anything better than OK in Minnesota, but I wouldn't be opposed to taking a stab at Bijan Robinson with new leaders in offense both under center and under headset. Dude could easily be next years' no brainer ADP #1 overall. Garrett Wilson is a little more sketch. You have to hope a lot of things go right. First, Rodgers has to be healthy at age 40. Second, he has to still be great at age 40 after a brutal injury. Third, it's still the freaking Jets he plays for.
Round 2 of ADP
Mike Evans
What is a going on here Round 2? This is about as big a mess as you can get. Only Mike Evans had a better 2023 than his 2024 in this group. This all has to do with the slander against #1 overall pick of a draft Baker Mayfield who is more than capable to providing Evans what he needs to outproduce his expectation.
Drake London
Throw WAR out on London. Capton Kirk is gonna feed this dude early and often.
Saquon Barkley
WAR is no help here either. But I think this is about a good spot for him. I think the Eagles are going to lean on him more than people think and rely on Hurts rushing less and less considering he played through injury so often last year. I think they get away from the tush push now that they have a running back who is competent inside the five.
Round 3 of ADP
Give me more Moore
I know the Bears have weapons everywhere and a rookie quarterback but this dude is the alpha and is going eleven spots behind what he was worth last year with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagel. DJ is probably one of the biggest WAR values so far.
Let's chill on DK Metcalf
There's a lot of buzz with Metcalf going off this season with a new offensive coordinator but going 39 spots ahead of his 2023 worth is getting a little out of hand.
Buy the tight ends
Tight ends and quarterbacks are generally undervalued by the public and have been for the few years I've tracked WAR. I know the vibe on Kelce is they are going to pace him for the playoffs again but I don't really buy it. They still don't have that many weapons outside of him. End of round two is a steal for him. LaPorta is an even bigger value according to WAR so he might be an even better steal.
What the hell Buffalo Bills?
Josh Allen has flown under the radar as a Round 1 worthy player for years now with pretty much just me yelling at the clouds to point this out. You're reading the chart right. He was the 4th best player in all of fantasy football last season. But he's lost so much. Diggs. Linemen. Gabe Davis (LOL). Honestly though, I don't know where to rank him this year. I still think he's a value at end of Round 2 but I think I'd side with one of the tight ends first.
Round 4 of ADP
Let's Go Pacheco!
The market is pretty spot on with Isiah Pacheco's 2023 output but I think there's plenty of reason to think he's going to outperform that now that he came out of nowhere to establish himself as the main character of that backfield.
Jalen Hurts
The market is still down on top quarterbacks and you gotta think Jalen Hurts will be hurt no longer this season. I do still have a feeling his goal line touchdowns will be siphoned away by Barkley but you're still getting a hell of a deal on him in Round 4. Lamar Jackson to a lesser degree as well.
Dalton Kincaid
Throw the -60 figure away on Dalton. He has everything he needs to be a true breakout tight end. A year under his belt. A lack of wide out competition. And a top-tier quarterback. JJ Zachariason did a great deep dive predicting tight end success a few years ago that predicted Mark Andrews popping off and Kincaid seems to have everything needed for this. Dalton is my boy this year!
Round 5 of ADP
Anthony Richardson
Let's just say Richardson isn't the model's favorite player. But we all know the deal with his injury and his rushing upside has the potential to break out in 2024.
Let James Cook
42 selections of value is a pretty spicy recipe here that might be too tasty to avoid. All you zero RB guys out there might look to start filling those slots with a serving of James Cook.
That's enough for now. Looking forward to bringing back some weekly WAR updates throughout the season and crunching which teams made up of scrubs would destroy every team in your league and venting about how we can't believe Gabe Davis would Lucy with football us again, again, again.
Enjoy the excitement of fantasy football while you can everyone. Misery is coming.
#DKPartner