Young Superstars, Hatred, Revenge, History: The 2024 NBA Finals Are Set And Both Sides Are Out For Blood
And then there were two.
Back in October before the season started, the Boston Celtics were tied with the Milwaukee Bucks as the Vegas favorites to win the NBA title. A position both teams had been in before, it wasn't exactly a crazy take to suggest either one could make the Finals and win the whole thing. The Mavs entered the season with the 9th best odds overall, and the 5th best odds among Western Conference teams.
At the trade deadline, the Celtics remained the title favorites. That made sense considering they were killing everyone they played and were 40-12 at that point of the season.
The Mavs at the deadline? They were 29-23 and had the 13th-best odds to win the title. At this point in the season, they were floating around the 8 seed, where their concern was mostly finding a way to make sure they avoided the Play In. So what did they do? They made season-altering trades. Guys that might not have moved the needle in terms of name/star power, but absolutely moved the needle in terms of basketball impact. Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington filled the exact holes the Mavs were missing at the time, and ever since that trade deadline the Mavs season completely flipped
Since that moment, it is not a stretch to suggest that the Mavs have been among the best teams not just in the West, but the NBA. You see the graphic above, their 21 wins were tied for the 4th most, they had the 7th best offense, 6th best defense, and 6th best net rating over the final stretch of the season.
They've followed that up with 3 series wins against 50 win teams, the 6th best playoff offense, the 7th best playoff defense, and the 4th best playoff net rating. They are in no way shape or form the same Dallas Mavericks team we saw back in October, and are very much a worthy Western Conference champion.
When it comes to this Finals matchup, the first place you look is how these two teams fared against each other during the year, where the Celts were 2-0 with an average margin of victory of 18.5 points. You can throw out the first meeting since it came pre-trade deadline, but these two teams did meet again on March 1st with both sides fully healthy
And while a regular season game in March does not guarantee anything in a Finals matchup taking place 3 months later, what it does do is give us an idea of how these teams match up when healthy. You can get an idea of the matchup issues both sides might face, and a look into how I think the Celts will approach this challenge.
But the basketball side is only half of the story when it comes to this Finals. As awesome as that stuff is, there's no denying the narratives and storylines for this matchup are incredible
- Luka vs Tatum
- Kyrie vs Boston
- Porzingis vs Dallas
- NBA History on the line for Boston
the list goes on and on. This is a series built for NBA Twitter toxicity, and it's awesome that by the end of this thing, one of Luka or Tatum will have their first ring. Considering they are the "future", I'd say that brings a decent amount of juice to this matchup.
A lot of the focus I imagine will be on Kyrie vs Boston (and for good reason)
and while I think for the most part this year people had pretty much forgotten about all the Kyrie bullshit, that's now over. Not when he stands in the way of Banner 18. Personally, my feelings towards Kyrie haven't really been about him lying about staying and then bolting for BKN. I care more about the whole openly quitting in Round 2 vs MIL and then stepping on Lucky while he was on the Nets. Since that moment though
We've seen him have big games against the Celts since leaving, and I have no doubt he'll be as motivated as humanly possible this time around. How the Celts handle that is going to be one of the biggest factors of this entire series.
Depending on who you prefer to win this series, there are certainly avenues for both. Right now Luka Doncic is playing as well as any player has in NBA history. You know how Jokic made history by leading the playoff field in points, rebounds, and assists last year? Luka Doncic is currently doing that this season. Kyrie Irving is playing like 2016 Kyrie, role players like PJ Washington are making shots, and Derrick Lively is making a massive impact even as a rookie. They bring a whole lot of confidence and one of the best offensive engines in the world into these Finals, and if you don't come ready to play against something like that, you will get buried. Just ask the Wolves.
The Celtics of course enter the Finals as one of the most dominant wagons in NBA history. Wins, point differential, net rating, you name it they've been among the best we've ever seen since the NBA was formed. The problem they provide in these Finals is a bit different than what DAL just saw because there are no weak links defensively, they have multiple bodies they can throw at the Mavs' best players, and then offensively they can attack the Mavs' weak defenders from multiple spots. During their run, no team the Mavs have faced had an ORTG over 114, which is pretty average in 2024. The Celtics had a 122.2 ORTG during the year and a 119.6 ORTG during the playoffs. Their offense is unlike anything the Mavs have faced thus far both in terms of shooting and spacing. Unlike this MIN matchup, the Celtics will never really have a non-shooter on the floor, and once they get you in space and force you to rotate, life becomes hell for you.
The only real downside to this matchup is the fact that it's still 6 days away. While the rest is important, enough already. I'm antsy as hell and I could do without all the bullshit we're about to hear on TV/podcasts over the next week.
Just skip all that nonsense and get us to Game 1 already.