A Tale Of Two Game 7s - Why History Tells Us Bet The Home Teams

Stathole5/19/2024 4:00 PM

AAron Ontiveroz. Getty Images.

Elsa. Getty Images.

Game 7 baby. What can be better than that?

That's right! Two Game 7s. I've done some homework and have concluded the play here for those inclined to bet is to take the home teams. I know this isn't exactly going out on a limb, but I ran some numbers to provide a dispationate albeit basic analysis that disregards specifics of any team's players and frankly just considers history and break even percentages on bets. They say history repeats itself, so why not bet on it?

Game 7 Facts:

The home team has won 112 out of 149 Game 7s (75%). This is a huge margin for a team that has split three games a piece with its opponent leading many to believe the two teams have proven themselves to be equals. But 149 games is a lot bigger sample size than any six from a series so it's easy to forget that there's a reason the higher seeded team is the higher seeded team.

Let's dig a little deeper. This really is a tale of two Game 7s in the since that the favored teams have taken wildly different roads to get to their respective do or die series finales. I thought it'd at least be interesting to see how things shake out in a seven game NBA Playoff series when you consider the exact result and location combination each team took to get to Game 7. Below is a list of every combination for all series' that went to Game 7 in NBA history through 2022-23 sorted by most occurences. The four blue highlights towards the top represent the possible outcomes for both the Knicks and Pacers while the single off purple colored row shows the only observed result for the Nuggets/T-Wolves.

Try not to seize on your scroll down.

We all make it?

To clarify what's going on here, let's start at the top. There have been 19 instances in which a favored team like the Knicks won Game 7 after winning and losing in the same sequence and at the same location (home or away). A little further down the list are two more blue hilighted rows that represent the seven instances in which the road team (Pacers path to winning) won that ensuing Game 7. That makes for 19/26 Game 7s going to the home favorite. Or 73%, which is pretty on target for what we expected out of all Game 7s.

Side note - It is kind of funny to see the most common sequence by a mile is to have the favored home team win all the home games and lose all the road games. You've heard a series doesn't start until a team wins on the road - but I guess it sure as hell can end.

Shout out Miami Heat who represent the one team on the very last row who trolled the Celtics last season before winning a road Game 7.

OK - let's chat Denver/T-Wolves.

We go from one of the most common sequences to one of the more rare. In fact, Denver losing their first two games at home before winning their next two on the road is what led me to look this Rain Man sequence shit up in the first place. With just two teams ever winning Game 7 from this sequence there have been no instances in which the road team won Game 7. I guess that would make some sort of sequence-agami for Jake Marsh if the T-Wolves pull this off.

Now you might think the fact that Denver lost their first two at home will come back to haunt them even after winning their next three. If we just look at that history, you could make that case as only 3/13 teams won after going LLWWWL (without considering home or away):

But the only two examples from this list that match the Nuggets result/location path through six games are the 1993-94 Rockets and 2004-05 Mavericks - both Game 7 winners.

Anyway - let's assume the Nuggets are sitting at 75% here like all Game 7 home teams and the Knicks are at 73%. That gives us a 54% chance of winning a moneyline parlay. I have Draft Kings giving +158 on this which equates to a breakeven percent of 38.7%. Meaning, we need better than 38.7% chance of winning for it to be a good bet. My math says 54 is indeed higher than 38.7.

Let's go baby! Hopefully Jake Marsh won't have a gami to celebrate.