2024 NFL Draft Prop Bet Primer
Christopher Trim. Shutterstock Images.
Not only am I a NBA and NFL Prop guy, my most successful props over the years have been NFL Draft props so I'm here with the 2024 installment.
We've done fairly well over the years winning money ranging from small to a lot each year.
Those unit counts are based on 1 unit per play. This year I included recommended unit size per play.
*Last year was on only losing record year, but I went 1-5 in plays with good value, went 4-1 in best bets.
All columns for reference: 2020, 2021, 2022, & 2023 blogs.
This year I don't have as many big swings as I did in 2022, but I'm hopeful the rest of this reading will be profitable for you the reader, and myself. And of course, a reminder to ALWAYS BET RESPONSIBLY.
NOTE: Betting on the NFL Draft is NOT legal in all states that sports gambling is legal. It IS legal in these: AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, NC, NH, NJ, OH, ON, OR, TN, WV, and WY
Also, for terminology:
OVER = picked at lower in the draft, so FARTHER from the #1 pick
UNDER = picked higher in the draft and CLOSER to the #1 pick
Without further ado, here are my Favorite NFL Draft Props (in order).
LA Chargers Position of 1st Drafted Player: Wide Receiver (+200)
Risk: 2u To Win: 4u
An Offensive Tackle makes a ton of sense seeing as they want to protect Justin Herbert, but they also cut Mike Williams and traded Keenan Allen. You can be as run first as you want, but lining up with Josh Palmer as your WR1 would be tough. I fully expect the Chargers to take a Wide Receiver with their first pick, even if they trade down.
First Four Picks Exact Order: 1) Caleb Williams 2) Jayden Daniels 3) Drake Maye 4) Marvin Harrison Jr. (-120)
Risk: 1.5u To Win: 1.25u
This seems chalky, but I think it's just the way it goes. Caleb Williams has been locked into #1 overall for a few months now. Jayden Daniels is basically in stone to go #2. And then Drake Maye will either go to New England, or a team looking to move up. Marvin Harrison Jr. is in my opinion the best player in the Draft and the Cardinals have a glaring need at Wide Receiver. Don't overthink it. This makes too much sense. 1.5 unit play at -120 for me.
Graham Barton Draft Position OVER 21.5 (+185)
Risk: 1.2u To Win: 2.22u
Barton is a really good player out of Duke. He's got position versatility and can play all over the line, but his most likely position in the NFL is Center. That position doesn't get drafted that high and I'm hearing he will go end of the 1st Round if he is a 1st Rounder at all. I like the value here at +185.
Michael Penix Jr. Draft Position OVER 32.5 (+185)
Risk: 1.2u To Win: 2.22u
Penix is an interesting evaluation. He's a very good Quarterback in the right environment, but unless he goes to the Raiders in the top half of the 1st Round, it's kind of hard to find a landing spot for him in the first 32 picks. There is always the possibility of a team trading up to get that 5th year option, but we've seen as recently as last year with Will Levis that the value of that isn't as much as the public thinks. Penix has medical issues that teams must sort out and I'm hearing some potential character/work ethic flags that may cause him to drop. I like the value here again at +185 to not go Round 1.
Kingsley Suamataia to be selected in the 1st Round (+150)
Risk: 1u To Win: 1.5u
I've head Suamataia has a lot of love in the back end of the 1st Round and with a run on Offensive Tackles expected, I think he goes. Great value at +150.
Terrion Arnold to be the first Cornerback selected (+105)
Risk: 1u To Win: 1.05u
Terrion Arnold was the CB1 when the season was over and while it seems like Quinyon Mitchell out of Toledo overtook him for a bit after the off-season circuit, I think Arnold will win this out. At plus money I think this is a solid play.
JJ McCarthy Draft Position OVER 5.5 (+100)
Risk: 1u To Win: 1u
Credit where credit is due. Brandon Walker was on this all off-season and while Jack Mac has the highest hopes for the National Champion QB, if he's not going top three, and four is going to be a WR, is someone trading up with the Chargers at #5? It seems like they'd be willing to move down for the right price, but with their glaring need at WR and having a shot to draft a top Receiver I think they stay put and McCarthy slides a little bit closer to 10.
Trey Benson to be the first Runningback selected (+300)
Risk: 0.7u To Win: 2.1u
Benson had injury issue at Oregon but has been fully healthy at Florida State and has been terrific. Moreso, the headline RB to be the first RB off the board, Texas' Jonathan Brooks tore his ACL in November. If a team is drafting him, it's not to have an immediate impact. So I love the value of Benson to be the top guy at +300.
Pittsburgh Steelers Position of 1st Drafted Player: Wide Receiver (+400)
Risk: 0.5u To Win: 2u
The Steelers are taking either an Offensive Tackle or Wide Receiver at #20 depending on the board. This is more of a value play as +400 for a coin flip type play is worth it in my eyes.
Kansas City Chiefs Position of 1st Drafted Player: Offensive Lineman (+140)
Risk: 0.5u To Win: 0.7u
Everyone points to the Chiefs as needing a Wide Receiver and they do. But their Left Tackle, Orlando Brown Jr. also left via Free Agency to the Bengals and they don't have a proven option behind him. Wanya Morris, who was a 3rd Rounder last year is in line to start, but if the Bengals like a guy more, it might be wise to protect their nearly half a billion dollar investment.
Watch all the NFL action unfold LIVE with us this Thursday night for the En Eff El Draft Show hosted by Brandon Walker, Rone, Will Compton, Taylor Lewan, and myself. We'll also have Nick Turani, Big Cat, Frank the Tank and a ton of other Barstool personalities involved, so check us out at 8pm EST/7pm CST on all Barstool platforms.
