2024 NCAA Tournament Region (Midwest) Breakdown, Preview And Picks - Kansas Is Completely Screwed
I do this every year and we roll on in 2024. I'll be looking at each region - two done yesterday, two today - to get everyone ready for the NCAA Tournament. Not the First Four, the real Tournament. We'll look at matchups, previews, players to watch and what team could be a sleeper to come out of each region.
Midwest Region
Storylines
1. Kansas is screwed, announced Kevin McCullar is out - This is it. Last night it was announced that Kevin McCullar is out for the NCAA Tournament and it immediately became the biggest storyline for me in this region.
Kansas with McCullar has one of the best starting 5s in the country. Without him? Dickinson struggles more. They don't have any depth and now needs Timberlake or Jackson to take on a bigger role. Not great! Oh and why does this matter even more? Samford's Bucky Ball is built on pressure and you need multiple guys to handle the ball to beat that. You lose your second best ballhandler in McCullar. There was a legit chance for Kansas to make a run, you have Self, you have Dickinson/McCullar/Harris and now that's gone.
2. Purdue has to make a Final Four - Yep, this was the biggest storyline in the region until last night. It still is for some. Purdue has the chokers label. It's what happens when you lose to a 16 seed, a 15 seed, and a 13. You can't keep doing this. Hell, I know they were a ridiculous miracle play away from making a Final Four in 2019, but they didn't. That's all what people care about. You have Zach Edey, the guy who goes to the line 40 times a game and is back-to-back NPOY. You got Lance Jones out of the portal. Smith has taken a massive jump. The bracket now opens up for them a little bit with Kansas being hurt. No excuses.
3. Speaking of chokers - Rick Barnes! This isn't your standard Tennessee team. They play fast, they have a guy in Knecht that can go get you 40. He's the best scorer Tennessee has had since, I don't know, Chris Lofton? This was the team that Barnes has been looking for. Then you get to the SEC Tournament and barely score 20 in a half. You could have a rematch of his old school in the 2nd round.
4. Can you trust any team? - This is the region I struggle with the most. I mentioned Purdue and Tennessee, but Creighton hasn't made a Final Four either. Not like they are a great Tournament team year-in and year-out. Gonzaga, Kansas, South Carolina - you trust any of them? We know the mid-majors in McNeese State and Samford, so are we going to see mayhem? I've stared at this bracket more than I care to admit and I've talked myself into roughly 8 teams to come out of it and can't picture any at the same time.
5. Guess who is back? - They can't keep getting away with it! St. Peter's is back as a 15 seed. They can't do it again right? They can't beat an SEC team in the 2/15 game. They can't have another miracle with a completely different team. Kinda bullshit the committee didn't have them play Purdue though.
Players to Watch
There are a couple ways to look at this, but I'm looking at this strictly as an intrigue factor. These are players that could be lottery picks in the NBA Draft, could put a team on their back or are just flat out good players. I'll try to avoid obvious ones like Zach Edey.
1. Jonny Furphy (Kansas) - I mentioned that someone has to step up for Kansas and Furphy has to be the guy. Forget Timberlake or Elmarko Jackson (well not really) but Furphy is the guy who improved the most this season. He's viewed as a potential NBA guy. If you can get him scoring and take some help off of Adams and Dickinson, they have more of a chance. Plus his last name is Furphy. Just fits perfectly.
2. Lance Jones (Purdue) - You could list basically any non Zach Edey guy here for Purdue. But Lance Jones is the guy who they brought in from the portal to help the guards out. He has to be the guy who can defend and break down opposing defenses. Braden Smith did get banged up a little during the Big 10 Tournament, but he seems to be fine. Jones shot 35% from three, he adds to someone that you can't leave and let Edey attack.
3. Ryan Nembhard (Gonzaga) - He was part of that Creighton run to the Elite Eight last year and he was fucking awesome. He's the type of guy who can quietly dominate a game. I like Gonzaga's draw now and Nembhard needs to be the guy he was in last year's Tournament. They want to play through Ike, but Nembhard is the key to a run.
4. Trey Alexander (Creighton) - We know about Baylor Schierman but Alexander is the most important player to Creighton. He's the one guy you can't attack on the defensive end. He can create his own shot. He's the playmaker when teams try to take Schierman away. Creighton seems to be flying under the radar a bit as a 3 seed, but Alexander is the key.
5. Great Osobor (Utah State) - Arguably the best name in college basketball. He's also just fucking awesome. Put up 18 and 9 this season, gives Utah State a guy to play through. Think it's pretty big that he can be on the court for 30+ minutes and just destroy other teams by drawing fouls. It's what he's the best at, elite even in the country.
Honorable mentions: Shahada Wells (McNeese State), Achor Achor (Samford), N'Faly Dante (Oregon), Meechie Johnson (South Carolina), Zakai Ziegler (Tennessee), Max Abmas (Texas)
My Favorite Bet to Make the Final Four (odds via DraftKings)
Gonzaga +750
Fuck it, let's get weird! I don't trust any team here, Gonzaga included so we'll take a possible payout at least. I don't want to touch Purdue for under 2/1 odds. I don't want to touch Tennessee at all. Gonzaga was playing well too until they lost to St. Mary's in the WCC title game. They have decent wins this year. I don't have any faith that this bracket is going to hold serve in terms of seeds either. Sure, Gonzaga could lose to McNeese State, but I see so many people picking McNeese. I'll swerve there. McNeese's best win in the nonconference was Michigan. Michigan fucking stinks. Everyone is down on Gonzaga and I get it. But this bracket sucks.
Matchup you most want to see - Creighton vs Tennessee
First Round Gut Play:
Samford +7 - I'll take the point here. It might be dumb, but I need to see Kansas without McCullar look the part. Plus, how healthy is Dickinson? Yeah Harris is awesome as a lead guard, but what happens if Samford's pressure puts the ball out of his hands. We saw how bad Kansas looked without Hunter and McCullar, so I'll take the 7.