Handicapping the Race to Become Belichick's Successor

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There's a lot still to discuss. One simply doesn't just move on from a historic, transformational figure who permanently changed the landscape of an entire six-state region with a snap of the fingers. And it'll be fascinating to see the relationship between Bill Belichick and the Patriots - which began in the Super Bowl year of 1996 - end with a mutual press conference between him and the one man in the NFL who believed in him in 2000, Mr. Kraft, coming up shortly. It promises to be an event never to be forgotten around here. 

Yet while this is a gut-wrenching, emotionally taxing moment, there's still business to attend to. Sentimentality is to be expected at a time like this. But it can't get in the way of the task at hand. You know that part in Lord of the Rings when Gandalf has just fallen to his death in the Mines of Moria and the rest of the Fellowship just barely made it out alive? Aragorn became their new leader. And told the group they had to get up and get out of there immediately. There was no time to mourn because "By nightfall these hills will be swarming with Orcs." Despite the shock and heartache they were suffering, there was still a quest to be fulfilled. And the Patriots have a ring-related quest that is every bit as important as the fate of Middle Earth. The hills are going to be swarming with Orcs from the other 31 NFL teams by nightfall. So we have to get up and keep moving. 

With that, here's a quick guide to the five candidates for HC of the NEPs getting the most mention right now:

Josh McDaniels

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His chances: 0.0%

Jim Harbaugh

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This one is out there. And I have no doubt it's out there because Jim Harbaugh put it there. I get that he's a white hot commodity at the moment. And certain people in management positions around here would love nothing more. I just don't see it. The Krafts have made two coaching hires in 30 years. One was Pete Carroll, whom they had no connection with. It didn't work out. The other was someone Kraft the Elder became close to when he was an assistant here in the mid-90s. That one really super-duper did work out. Familiarity matters in this very much family business they're running. Jim Harbaugh's only connection to the Patriots is his brother gave birth to the whole Deflategate nonsense when his team tipped the Colts off to squishy footballs in the 2014 playoffs. And speaking of "scandals," the last thing the Patriots need is a guy who's been suspended for spying.

His chances: 5%

Brian Flores

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This one is particularly interesting since Flores is one of those rare successes off the Belichick coaching tree. At least he was trending that way. It seemed like this one acorn sprouted and was beginning to take root as the Dolphins went 10-6 and then 9-7. The Dolphins appeared to be building toward something in his first head coaching gig, and was universally respected around his organization and the league. Almost. Which is to say, everywhere except in the Miami owners' box. Flores was fired. According to him and his subsequent lawsuit, it was because he refused to tank and noped out of a recruiting meeting with Tom Brady while he was still under contract in New England. That suit, which is also against the NFL, is still being litigated. If there's one quality in Mr. Kraft that I don't care for, it's his loyalty to people who are terrible to him and his team. Most notably, the Commissioner. Flores will get another chance to be head coach in this league. He's earning it Minnesota as we speak. I just doubt it'll be here as long as he's suing Ginger Satan. 

His chances: 10%

Mike Vrabel

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His chances: 40%

Jerod Mayo

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I'm not going out on much of a limb here, admittedly. At this time last year, Mayo was all set to take interviews for other head coach openings. But the process was short-circuited by RKK, who gave him the same Line-of-Succession treatment McDaniels got, just as the linebackers coach as opposed to a coordinator title. He even took the unheard of step of announcing "negotiations" with Mayo were underway as soon as last season ended. Then in March told NFL.com, "Well, he's definitely a strong candidate to be the heir apparent." Well now the king has been overthrown. Or abdicated. We'll soon see. It might be a year or two sooner than expected, and a gamble given that he's never even been a coordinator. But Mayo is here, he's available, and the job is open. I dread the tabloids running with the "KRAFT MAYO" puns. But this seems like the most likely outcome. 

His chances: 45%

I think that adds up to 100%. I don't know how odds work. And maybe I should've left a percent or two for "Other."  I just rank them according to what my gut tells me.