With Trade Season Is Officially Underway In The NBA, The Time Has Come For Brad Stevens To Once Again Work His Magic

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Once we crossed over the December 15th date and newly signed players became eligible to be traded, it was only a matter of time before our timelines started to be filled with Woj/Shams bombs announcing some sort of move. Outside of the rare situations like the James Harden trade that happened at the end of October, most of the activity tends to happen around mid December through the trade deadline in mid February. Things can get a little tricky as different players have different trade restrictions as to when they're able to be moved, with some veteran extension guys not eligible until early January (Jordan Clark, Dejounte Murray, DLo etc). But for the most part, December 15th was the key date to remember.

We of course got our first "big" move of this year's Trade Season with the TOR/NYK deal, something that seems to already be benefitting both sides

For yours truly, while it's always fun to talk about trades and new look teams, all I truly care about is what Trade Season means for my favorite team. Every year there is a debate as to whether or not this is the season to "go for it". In year's past, that usually meant needing Danny Ainge to package his assets for a win-now piece. During the Tatum/Brown era, so really starting in 2016, we only saw one trade deadline deal, which was the Evan Fournier/Luke Kornet trades in 2020-21.

If there's one thing we've now come to accept when dealing with Brad Stevens, it's the fact that he will not hesitate to make a move if it improves his team. The man STILL has not made a first round pick. He's basically the exact opposite of Ainge in that regard. In Year 1, he traded Kemba for Horford 5 seconds after accepting the job, and then at the deadline, he brought us our beloved Bald Derrick. Well here we are again in 2023-24 with the best team in the NBA and another opportunity to add to this roster.

Maybe you think the need is another reserve big. Maybe you're someone who wants some additional wing help, preferably someone who could generate their own shot. With the new CBA rules starting next season, time is somewhat running out in terms of how Brad will be able to build the roster moving forward. The Celts won't be able to combine salaries, buyout guys will be unavailable etc. Before we get into names, let's revisit what assets outside of his current roster Brad has to work with

1. The Grant Williams TPE ($6.2M)

2. The Justin Jackson TPE ($1.8M)

3. First round picks (2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2030)

4. Second round picks (2024 CHI/NOP, 2024 SAS, 2025 WSH or GS or DAL or DET, 2026 MIN or NYK or NO or POR, 2027 ATL, 2030, 2030 DAL)

Said a much less confusing way, when it comes to non-player assets, the Celts and Brad Stevens have more than enough should the right opportunity present itself. Where it gets tricky of course is the whole making the money match part. This is what Brad's working with in that regard

This is going to matter when we start thinking about what the hell the team might do. Unfortunately, I can't see too many teams in the league doing any sort of 3 for 1 type of trade, so I wouldn't even put much stock into any player that makes more than the Grant TPE. Even if you think Payton Pritchard has some value, remember his $4M isn't really $4M when it comes to a trade. That number is really his $6.6M for a team to take on given his pending extension (poison pill contract). 

You also can't combine player salaries + the TPE to bring in a higher salaried player. For example, if you want someone who makes $9M, you can't combine the Grant TPE and someone like Brissett in order to bring that player in. They have to fit the TPE on their own.

With that in mind, let's go by position. Say you want a wing/stretch four. Here's your group of players that not only make under $6.5M, but also wouldn't shock me if their team were open for a trade

Otto Porter Jr (TOR): $6.1M

Jalen McDaniels (TOR): $4.6M

Chris Duarte (SAC): $4.4M

Corey Kispert (WSH): $3.7M

Saddiq Bey ($3.3M)

Torrey Craig ($2.6M)

John Konchar ($2.2M)

That's a list that doesn't exactly blow your dick off, and I'm sort of wishfully thinking when I put Saddiq Bey into that list. Maybe the Hawks aren't interested in paying him in RFA and they try and get ahead of it. Same thing with Kispert down the line. The point is, there isn't some no doubt about it wing that fits the Grant TPE that moves the needle all that much. Maybe you're into Torrey Craig because he can play the 4 for you and is shooting 38% from deep in 27 games this season. Honestly, he probably makes the most sense if we're looking at trading for a wing using that Grant TPE.

Now let's look at bigs that fit the same criteria. In terms of centers, you have

Dwight Powell (DAL): $4M

Andre Drummond (CHI): $3.2M

JaVale McGee (SAC): $3.1M

Alex Len (SAC): $3.1M

Santi Aldama (MEM): $2.5M

Pretty slim pickings when it comes to the center position as well. I think my preference might be someone like Aldama, but that probably comes with at least 1 first round pick given he's pretty good. My thought is maybe by the deadline the Grizzlies are cooked and they make as well start looking for assets, and he's cost controlled for another year before RFA, which is probably attractive for Brad. 

At the PF spot, it's not much better

Tari Eason (HOU): $4M

Jalen Smith (IND): $5M

It's important to note that Jalen Smith is in a contract year (has a player option), and with Isaiah Jackson giving good production as well as having the more team friendly contract, maybe this is where the Pacers look to cash in on a guy they might lose for nothing anyway. It makes sense to bring Smith into the TPE and toss IND a 2nd or two for their troubles. 

The point here is, there aren't a ton of realistic/needle moving bigs that are under the Grant TPE either. Now, is it possible to maybe combine a low salary in Craig with a low salary center like Drummond or McGee or Len? Sure. In fact, if Brad was to use the TPE, I feel like that is the path he would take compared to putting it all into one player since there isn't really one guy that's all that different from what's currently on the roster. 

So while it's fun to speculate, when you look at how the Celts are going to be able to add players and then the types of players who fit that criteria, my gut says this is going to be more of a buyout market trade market. Maybe the path is converting Queta's Two Way into a full time contract to fill your big man depth, and then you use the rest on a wing, swapping an end of bench guy like Banton or Svi. 

I would simply advise you to temper your expectations. It would be VERY shocking if there were any sort of fireworks trade, simply because I can't imagine Brad touching the top 11 spots in their rotation for any of the guys listed above. My gut says this ends with Queta converted and like Torrey Craig. Maybe Blake decides to come out of retirement for the stretch run or something, which I would fully support.