Begun, the Bailey Zappe Era Has

Alex Grimm. Getty Images.

By way of explanation, the sentence structure of that headline was intentional, if somewhat of a deep pull. Somebody stop me before I obliquely reference the last line of an unpopular 20 year old movie again:

But we are at a moment no less momentous to our galaxy that a war breaking out between the … Separatists? And the Republic? Trade Federation? Empire? I raised two sons on that prequel trilogy and still don't know whose beef is whom. I just know they're better than the Disney sequels. "Somehow, Palpatine returned." Fuck all the way off with your lazy storytelling and cynical fan service, Jar Jar Abrams. What was I talking about? Oh right. This:

Source - Bill Belichick might not reveal his decision publicly, but the Patriots coach has made a change at his quarterback position.

According to multiple team sources, Bailey Zappe took the bulk of first-team reps during Wednesday’s Patriots practice while Mac Jones ran the scout team offense.

According to one source, the practice didn’t have a different feel, but the change was welcomed … and it wasn’t fair to keep putting Jones out there due to his struggles. …

Speaking with one offensive player, he noted that Zappe has more zip to his passes and better arm strength. He said Wednesday’s practice was a solid start to the week and the change at quarterback was understood.

Two years ago, Mac Jones was filling the GOAT-shaped hole in my heart. He'd outplayed Tom Brady in Prime Time in just his fourth career game. The next week he threw a Pick-6 to Trevon Diggs (join the club, they're making jackets) and then immediately responded with a 75-yard laser beam to Kendrick Bourne as he took Dallas to overtime. What followed was a seven game win streak and all was right with the world. That feels like a million lifetimes ago. Or some alternate timeline in the multiverse. Or some ayahuasca hallucination I had. 

Which doesn't mean I hate that the Patriots are making the switch. I'm not exactly glad about it either. Bittersweet isn't the right word. I'll call this the Salted Caramel of mixed emotions. On the one hand, I'm salty as hell Jones could break so bad after showing so much promise. He was The Best in Show in one of the most highly graded QB rookie classes of my lifetime. On the chewy, sugary goodness side, I'm grateful this Sunday to be spared having to watch him implode even more than he already has. It's almost the same reaction I had at the MLB trading deadline in 2004 when Theo Epstein traded Nomar Garciaparra away. I was sorry to see him go; but relieved at the same time because Red Sox fans had turned on him and he was never going to win them back. I wanted him gone before things got ugly.

I'm also happy for the 40-50,000 poor bastards who'll be skulking into Gillette because they have tickets they couldn't resell on the secondary market that they'll have a starting quarterback they can cheer for. At least they'll be able to cheer for Bailey Zappe during the introductions. I'm under no delusions the good vibes will last much longer. Believe me, I admire the hopefulness of those Pats fans who watched him take over when Jones got hurt last year and had visions of 2001 Brady coming in for Drew Bledsoe dancing in their heads. But I'm cursed with having a memory that goes back further. Where they saw Brady, I saw 1991 Hugh Millen taking over for Marc Wilson who took over for (an aging) Steve Grogan who took over for Doug Flutie who took over for Tony Eason. The point being that these changes rarely go well. What made Brady's situation so special is that it happens once in 10 generations. The rest of the time, inserting one guy because "he has to be better than" the guy you have is a fool's errand. I truly envy the Zappe Stans' optimism; I just don't share it.

Granted, numbers can lie. And Zappe hasn't been put into the easiest spot. Nor has he gotten the first team practice reps until now. But I look at these and don't see Steve Young taking Joe Montana's job away:

Nor do I think he's going to come in and bring some sort of Big Arm Energy that's going to suddenly jump start the dead engine of Bill O'Brien's offense. The problems go a lot deeper than just one guy. At the beginning of the week, I posted Jones' spray chart from the 1st half in New York:

Pathetic that it may be, and completely not what you'd ever expect to see in a modern NFL offense, it looks like Air Coryell compared to Zappe's 2nd half chart:

I'd love to be wrong. I used to drink hope out of the skulls of our vanquished enemies. But I put all that I had in Jones and have none left to give to Zappe. This has been a breakdown on a systemic level, and I don't see any way a second year Western Kentucky Hilltopper who couldn't even threaten to win the QB1 job all offseason is going to work miracles. I think we used up our miracle 22 years ago.