We Saved Ourselves With A Home Run Prop, And It Has Me Feeling Pretty Good About Today's Picks

RECORD

41-67-2 (-5.2 units)

J.T. Realmuto, you beautiful bastard. Yesterday was shaping up to be a disaster. The Astros couldn't pull one out in the last game of the series against the Orioles, and the dumb fucking Blue Jays just couldn't get out of their way again and lost the game to the Guardians. I'm going to wear that one. I don't know why I keep betting on that team. They keep letting me down. They've made my shit list 1 million times. I've kicked them off the shit list 1 million times, and nothing has changed. They are nothing if not consistent. So I wasn't feeling very good, and then J.T. Realmuto went deep against the Nationals, and we ended up with a plus money day. That's gambling, buddy boy. We walked that tightrope yesterday. I prefer not to go through that roller coaster again. That's why you always have props to fall back on. Much like the banana stand, there's always money in home run props. Take a look at today's picks. 

Astros -1.5 (+115) against the Angels

Yeah, I'm all over this one. From a storyline standpoint, it's hard not to hammer the Astros. Justin Verlander is making his first home start back since being traded from the Mets. He has phenomenal career numbers at Minute Maid Park. He's 29-13 with a 2.46 ERA in 61 starts in Houston, And he's facing a Los Angeles Angels team that he's historically had a lot of success against. The Astros continue to be in win-now mode. They're doing everything possible to catch the Texas Rangers in the American League West. On the other end, you have the Los Angeles Angels, who have been descending since they made the foolish decision to go all out and buy at the deadline. I watch a lot of Astros baseball, and this is the type of game they run away with early. I need them to cover. I think they will.

Mariners -1.5 (+150) against the Orioles

I'm riding with a hot hand here. The Mariners have been on fire over the last two weeks. I keep betting against the Orioles because I truly believe in Kevin Brown's curse, but in this particular instance, it's more about the Mariners. Baltimore has an explosive offense, but they're going up against a pitcher in Luis Castillo, who is very comfortable pitching in Seattle. In 18 career starts at T-Mobile Park, he's 7-3 with a 2.39 ERA. Kyle Gibson is going for Baltimore. You never really know what you're going to get out of him. He had one outing against Seattle at home earlier this season and gave up five runs over three innings. The Mariners seem like they're starting to believe. I expect them to stay hot with Castillo on the mound.

Juan Soto to homer (+290) against the Diamondbacks

We had to go to the home run prop following yesterday. +290 is not great value for a home run prop, but I always trust Juan Soto. He's had a rough go of things lately. He's currently in the midst of a 1-16 stretch and recently had his first four-strikeout game. With a player of his caliber, that means he's due. He only has two hits in twelve plate appearances against Ryne Nelson, but they're both home runs. I'm going against some of the numbers here. Soto does not have good numbers in his career against Diamondbacks, but he changes that tonight. Juan Soto's going to put up good numbers against everybody. He's one of the best hitters of the generation. The ball usually flies out at Chase Field, and I expected to fly for one Soto this evening.

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