Joe Burrow's Contract Will Reportedly Be "Well North" Of Justin Herbert's. Here's Why It Won't Ruin The Bengals' Future
Because the Cincinnati Bengals have a longstanding — let's be honest, earned — reputation as a cheapskate football operation, the widespread assumption is that they won't be able to do literally anything once Joe Burrow signs a new record-setting contract.
Burrow deserves every penny of whatever he gets and it still won't be enough. The way he's almost single-handedly transformed the culture, collective mindset and the Bengals' standing in the NFL at large is unquantifiable. I'm sure it is quantifiable but that's for some nerd bigger than me to figure out once the final numbers of Burrow's deal are in.
Anyway, shit is changing in Cincinnati in case you haven't noticed. And no, the Bengals won't be devastated and go bankrupt after extending Burrow. I'm sure rival AFC fans will insist this is the case. The data I'm about to share is going to make them scramble for a fucking sick bag.
*Retroactive edit* I was scrambling for a sick bag myself over this at first:
Seems Joe will be OK, though. Thank goodness. Carrying on...
Not that Pro Football Focus' data is the end-all, be-all for everything. I think it's quite useful. However, I'm not talking about player or team film grades in this instance. I'm talking about their recent deep dive into the three-year, bigger-picture look at all 32 teams' salary cap health.
GUESS WHO WAS NUMBER ONE!?!?!?!?!
And in terms of long-view transactions, yet another move was made this very day for star pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson:
Yes, Burrow is going to cost an arm, leg, and the reptilian tail one of the non-human biologics who works in the front office keeps tucked away in perpetual retraction. The NHBs are everywhere, folks. I'm sure of it. You saw the Congressional hearing yesterday, did you not!?
This notion that the Bengals "will never be able to pay everyone and they're too poor" is an antiquated, lazy take. I feel like I've said this ad nauseam at this point, but the new TV/media rights deals that are kicking in this year are going to cause the salary cap to skyrocket. Unless there's some exception made for quarterback contracts, that'll drive the limit way up as well.
Well you saw how healthy this team is from a salary cap perspective for the next few years. Let's look at another premier source for this type of info: Over The Cap. On their Bengals team page, you can see it plain as day. In 2026, when the salary cap is projected to go up to a whopping THREE-HUNDRED AND EIGHT MILLION DOLLARS, Cincinnati has a grand total of $35.7 million in total cap liabilities at this moment:
Sure, it'll be a little tight when Burrow and (presumably) Tee Higgins' extensions kick in for 2024. But Ja'Marr Chase's deal that will ultimately make him the highest-paid receiver in football won't go into effect until 2025. When, as you can see, the Bengals have a bazillion dollars to play with.
Of course this means Tyler Boyd would have to take a pay cut to stay next offseason. The same is probably true for CB1 Chidobe Awuzie. At least in those instances, the Bengals used two draft picks on receivers this year (Charlie Jones, Andrei Iosivas), and have selected two second-round corners in a row (Cam Taylor-Britt, DJ Turner). They seem to be anticipating those losses, just as they spent a 2022 first-rounder on Dax Hill once it became clear they wouldn't reach a long-term agreement with safety Jessie Bates.
The other key defensive cornerstones the Bengals will have to maneuver the cap around for are DJ Reader and Logan Wilson. They've already worked something out with Hendrickson. We'll see what happens with the other guys.
In any event, even with the insane payday Joe Burrow is about to get, there's not any world in which that contract will slam Cincinnati's Super Bowl window shut. Honestly, I see a scenario where we look back at Burrow's deal in a few years like we see Patrick Mahomes' first extension now. A total bargain.
But I won't let that stop the idiots out there from doubting the Bengals. I'm sure most people with their minds made up already won't open their minds to anything I've written here. Oh well. See you in the playoffs