I Took It On The Chin Yesterday, But Today Is A New Day
RECORD
22-43-2 (-12 units)
Back to the drawing board, ladies and gentlemen. After a few solid days, yesterday was a real kick in the dick. I thought I had a pretty good gauge on the Rays beating the Marlins. I guess that Sandy Alcantara found out that I bet against him and decided to return to his 2022 Cy Young form. The Diamondbacks lost to a St. Louis Cardinals team that is a corpse, and José Abreu, much like the rest of the Houston Astros, folded it up after the first inning against the Rangers and failed to go deep against a pitcher that he typically dominates. I still don't regret the picks. I mean, of course, in hindsight, I do. But I'm still not mad at myself for the logic behind them. Going against the Marlins especially seemed like a slam dunk. They've been tripping over themselves ever since the All-Star break. But the gambling gods decided to be hard on me yesterday, but hopefully, I can return the favor today by putting together some good bets. Let's take a look at today's picks.
Cubs -1.5 (+150) against the St. Louis Cardinals
A few pitchers in baseball get overlooked the way Justin Steele does. He's earned respect this year by making his first All-Star team at age 27 but putting the Cubs at +150 in a game he is starting feels odd. I know the Cardinals won yesterday, but I still do not trust them. Steele has had three starts against St. Louis this season, and he's 3-0 with a 2.95 ERA. Even though he's away from the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, Steele's numbers on the road this year are better than they are at home. Miles Mikolas is on the bump for St. Louis. His numbers against the Cubs in his career have been solid, but this season he's allowed six runs and 15 hits in only 9.1 innings pitched against Chicago. This isn't a deep slate of games, but I like the value here.
Mets -1.5 (+105) against the Nationals
I almost considered going with the under here. Josiah Gray has been one of the few bright spots for the Washington Nationals this season, but I don't trust Washington's bullpen late in the game. With that said, I don't really trust the Mets bullpen either, but Kodai Senga has been fantastic for the Mets this season, and he's not exactly facing a dangerous lineup. He's only had one career start against Washington, so there's only a little data to go off of here. This is simply more of a feel pick, but Senga has improved as the season progresses. He posted a 2.61 ERA over his last seven outings, and he's missing a lot of bats with that ghost fork pitch he offers. The Mets have had one of the most disappointing seasons they've ever had, but they are 11-8 in July. I could see them making something of a push before they dump a few assets at the deadline. One of those pieces that is here to stay is Senga, who I expect to beat the nationals this evening.
White Sox +1.5 (-115) against the Guardians
I think the reasoning behind so many of my pics is pitching-based. I might just be a basic bitch when it comes to that stuff. Or maybe I'm just blinded by the fact that I love starting pitching. I know that he hasn't been able to recapture his 2022 magic, but I still think that Dylan Cease is capable of being one of the more dominant pitchers in baseball, and he's going up against a Guardians offense that just blows. I know the White Sox have also been a mess, but the Guardians offense is rough to watch. If you take Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor out of that lineup, we're talking about one of the five worst offenses in the entire sport. Their 2022 campaign is looking more and more like a fluke each day. We're at a point in the season where I try to pay attention to morale. Some teams get hot before the deadline, and some teams get cold. Terry Francona always has the Guardians ready to play, but this season has not played out the way they expected, and yesterday they traded their starting shortstop. I have a lotta question marks about how their young core will respond. For that reason, I like Cease in this matchup.
All odds come from the Barstool Sportsbook. Follow Barstool Baseball on all platforms, including our YouTube page.