Apparently The Cincinnati Reds Are Open to Trading Jonathan India Just 2 Years After Winning Rookie of the Year

Big news out of Cinci today that they're open to trading Jonathan India not even 2 years after winning NL ROY honors in 2021. Pretty wild considering he was the 1st legitimate piece to this rebuild. And now it's here and they've out-rebuilt the original rebuild. There's a lot more going on but that's a pretty simple way to start. The Reds have apparently gotten so good, so quick, that they can leverage India for pitching depth to make a run at the Central. 

Reaction #1 - That's good rebuilding. Elly and Matt McClain have been superb in their debuts while India stalls from a banged-up 2022. He's played 100 games, but the bat hasn't returned to its threatening 2021 levels of an .835 OPS and 116 OPS+. He's been about 10% worse in two seasons since and it sounds like the Reds are ready to part. 

Not because India sucks... he's At Worst, a serviceable everyday big leaguer with a great pedigree on a competitive club. 

Problem is the Reds need pitching. They do not need infielders at this point. They've got a great mix of young guys and then extremely young guys. At 26 years old, India's technically Old Balls compared to some of his teammates. And that's already with an average roster age of 27.1 - by far the lowest in the NL Central by a full year. 

The urgency to get that pitching is much higher than I thought. Does that mean bad internal news for Hunter Greene or Nick Lodolo? Or is Matt McClain THAT good? Or do the Reds simply think the timing meets the circumstance perfectly? 

It certainly feels way too early to move India but I don't make these decisions professionally. To me, he's a top-10 2B when healthy and you've already witnessed his ceiling. That's not easy to replace in any traditional capacity. Some organizations go a decade+ without a decent 2B and the Reds are currently flirting with 3-4 that fit the bill. 

There's plenty of replacement value available. There's a huge need within the pitching staff. The Central is ripe for the taking this season and the Reds have won back their fanbase. Plenty of reasons to be aggressive and take advantage of this moment. 

There's just a small voice that says this is too aggressive. Too crazy. Too much momentum in the Reds narrative to hit the brakes much less even slow down. 

Under that mindset, you have to feel good if you even remotely give a shit about the Reds. Sure this could backfire tremendously. But India has 3 years of arbitration coming and there's a lot of clubs that want that control vs. the Reds seeing it as a major risk to arbitrate against a ROY winner. That duration of salary projection is what drives the value to so many clubs, cheap owners be damned. So while he may be down from 2021 levels, the overall package is still incredibly appealing. 

My only pause is that he might be more valuable in the offseason. There's way more buyers than sellers right now and I don't think many buyers are actively identifying 2B as the one position holding them back. So traditionally, the most ideal trade partners wouldn't be limited to 2023 contenders. In fact I'd take the complete opposite approach. Find partners that value the 3.5 years of control and you should get a much better return in Cincinnati. 

The Mariners and White Sox jump to the top of the list. I'm inclined to aggressively consider the Twins but 24 year-old Edourd Julien has been a monster in his first 50 games. This is where things get thin trying to match suitors. 

The broader point is that Jonathan India is a very fine 2nd baseman with 3.5 years of control left. He's got unique value at a difficult position to differentiate and it sure looks like the Reds want to move him. 

And for Reds fans - you've got a great recent track record with the Castilla and Mahle deals. Emotions aside, you've been pretty good at moving big league talent for depth. 

Now the big difference is you want depth at the MLB level and that shit's not easy. Otherwise you wouldn't have to dangle the 2021 Rookie of the Year. 

Emilee Chinn. Getty Images.

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PS - The Pirates 2nd highest bWAR this year is their closer, David Bednar. He gets very few save opportunities relative to other dominant closers. He's awesome and will be one of MLB's best relievers for the next 3-5 years. It would be absolutely moronic to ignore this opportunity: 

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