We're Going Back To Basics With Today's Gambling Picks
RECORD
18-38-2 (-15.6 units)
I don't mind just going with home run props on Sundays. It's a fun way to mix it up. The problem is that you lose a shit ton of money and end up looking like a fool. I'm carving out a niche here. When I originally got this job, I didn't expect my niche to be that of the worst gambler at the company, but that may be where we're headed. Neither Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman, nor Kyle Tucker went deep yesterday. It was a long shot, but we'd hit with a home run prop recently, so I decided to have some fun. We'll probably return to hot hand Sundays again at some point, but for today, we'll go back to basics. I know I'm a bad gambler, but I shouldn't be THIS bad. I know enough about baseball that I should be able to find my footing in some capacity. I have to keep searching. Let's take a look at today's picks.
Astros ML and Kyle Tucker to record a hit (+151) against the Rangers
I wanted to go with the Astros straight up on the moneyline, but I wasn't really into the value, so I added my boy Tuck to get a hit. That should be the easy part. In eighteen games in July, Tucker has recorded a hit in seventeen games. The Astros come into tonight as home underdogs against the first-place Rangers. Houston took three out of four when they played in Arlington before the All-Star break. The Rangers just had a rough series at home against the Dodgers. They have Jon Gray on the mound. Gray is having the best season of his career, but his ERA over his last six starts is 5.76. Also, as deep as the Rangers offense is, they are significantly less scary without Corey Seager in the lineup. He's currently on the ten-day IL. Houston didn't look like themselves in their most recent series against the A's, but they tend to play down to their competition. They won't have to worry about that against a great Rangers team today.
Pirates ML (+210) against the Padres
On paper, this bet probably doesn't make a lot of sense. The Padres have been playing better baseball lately, and they have Yu Darvish on the mound against a pitcher who is making his second career start. Crazy equals genius sometimes, and the value here is too insane to pass up. Taking a team as an underdog for the value of a home run prop makes sense against a team like the Padres. San Diego is enormously talented, but they're inconsistent as hell. Yesterday's game against Detroit was a prime example. They dominated the first two games in the series only to slip up yesterday and get shut down by Alex Faedo. Darvish has been great in two starts since the All-Star break, but he's still having one of the weakest seasons of his career. The Pirates are good, but they're just intriguing enough to surprise some people. Who am I kidding? It's a long shot, but I'll bounce off walls if it pays off.
Mookie Betts to homer (+340) against the Blue Jays
This isn't a great board today. It's Monday, which means a lot of teams are traveling. With that said, I like Mookie as a home run prop bet here. From a power standpoint, Mookie is having one of the best seasons of his career. His career best in home runs is thirty-five, which he set last season. He's already at twenty-seven in 2023, though he only has one home run post-All-Star break. If there is going to be a pitcher he will take deep, it's Jose Berrios. Berrios has had a solid bounce-back year for Toronto this season, but his numbers against Mookie are brutal. In sixteen career at-bats against Berrios, Betts is 7-16 with two home runs. Given how hot the Dodgers lineup has been over the last few weeks, Mookie isn't going to be pitched around. You want to avoid facing Freddie Freeman with Mookie on base. He's going to crush a Berrios meatball tonight.
All odds come from the Barstool Sportsbook. Follow Barstool Baseball on all platforms, including our YouTube page.