WE FINALLY HIT WITH A HOME RUN PROP! Let's Keep The Momentum Going Today

RECORD

17-33-2 (-11.5 units)

OH MY GOD! We actually did something yesterday. The Chas McCormick home run prop may have been a stretch, but he FINALLY hit on one yesterday. Austin Riley stayed hot and went deep for the Braves. That was the first home run prop I've cashed in on since Javier Baez went deep on my birthday. The Angels teed off on Pirates pitching, helping us cash in on my-run line bet. So the vibes are starting to return. It's all about balancing falling in love with the numbers and going with your gut. But we're officially off the mat. Let's take a look at today's picks. 

Cardinals -1.5 (+130) against the Cubs

I like the value here, and I think this bet also makes sense from a baseball standpoint. The Cardinals are obviously not as good as last year, but I also don't believe they are as bad as they played through the first several months of this season. The last few weeks have reflected that. They're 9-3 over their last twelve games after falling to a season-worst sixteen games under .500 on July 5. As far as the Cubs are concerned, they can't seem to get out of their own way sometimes. If it's not Justin Steele or Marcus Stroman, I don't trust their rotation, and today they have Michael Fulmer starting. He'll presumably be used as an opener, considering he hasn't made a start since 2021 when he was still with my Tigers. I also believe in momentum, and the Cardinals lost a one-run ball game yesterday due to some questionable umpiring by Ron Kulpa late in the game. I think they come out pissed.

Rangers/Dodgers over 9.5 (Even)

Corey Seager left yesterday's game with a shoulder injury, which is why I could see some people hesitant to take the over here. If he's out long-term, it changes the entire outlook of the AL West for the remainder of the season. At the same time, the Rangers offense is as deep as any in the American League, and they're facing a rookie pitcher in Bobby Miller. Miller has been fine in nine starts, but this will be the best offense he's faced in his young career so far. Dane Dunning is going for the Rangers. He's been their unsung hero so far this season. His FIP is over a full run higher than his ERA. As good as his command is, he doesn't miss many bats and is facing an offense that controls the strike zone. The game these two teams played last night was a slugfest. I expect that to carry over into today.

Andrew Benintendi over 1.5 hits (+165) against the Twins

I've always liked Benintendi. I know he hasn't turned into the power threat that many people predicted he would be coming out of Arkansas, but it seems like he always puts together professional at-bats. His OPS over the last month is .852, and he went deep last night, so hopefully, this means he's finding something of a grove. He's going up tonight against Sonny Gray. Gray has had a fantastic season, but he's got two things working against him. For one, he's been a mess over his last two outings, giving up eleven runs in 11.2 innings. Secondly, Andrew Benintendi has his number. In 20 career at-bats against Sonny Gray, Benintendi has eight hits. Betting a player to record multiple base hits is a definite gamble, but Benintendi has always had a pretty good feel for the strike zone, and Gray has struggled with some command issues this season. I think he leaves a few over the heart of the plate tonight.

All odds come from the Barstool Sportsbook. Follow Barstool Baseball on all platforms, including our YouTube page.