Cincinatti Is Red Hot, Willy Adames Owns Marcus Stroman, And Harrison Bader Is Due To Go Deep

RECORD

7-9-2 (-1.5 units)

I wasn't crazy about yesterday's board. I'm usually not a guy who bets a ton of overs, but I don't make bets unless I have data to support it. One of the games got postponed, so that was a wash (literally). The Braves/Guardians over seemed inevitable to hit, but the Guardians offense sucks shit and left a million runners on base like they always do. The Padres/Angels over was just a bad bet. I'm still getting used to this. This is a journey of self-discovery more than anything. Let's move on to today's picks.

Reds ML (+110) against the Nationals

This one surprised me. McKenzie Gore is on the mound for the Nationals. He's the starting pitcher of theirs who has the highest upside, but his ERA is still a pedestrian 4.48. I keep having concerns over the Reds pitching staff, but it hasn't mattered for the last month or so. They're outslugging everyone. The vibes are incredibly high in Cincinnati right now. They've won 19 of their last 25 games. Getting them as underdogs, especially against a team as bad as Washington, feels like a bargain. Cincinnati is going to stay hot.

Willy Adames over 1.5 bases (+135)

I've had some pretty good luck betting on total bases props. I pay a lot of attention to pitcher vs. batter matchups, and Will Adames absolutely owns Marcus Stroman. Stroman has been fantastic for the Cubs this season, but he's struggled in his last two starts, and he'll have to face a player in Willy Adames who sees him as well as anyone. Adames is 8-15 with 1.522 OPS against Stroman. I was tempted to bet on Adames to go deep, but his career power numbers need to be better for me to trust him to take Stroman bridge today. He might not go deep, but I expect him to get on base multiple times.

Harrison Bader (+600) to homer

I needed to go with a home run prop today. They provide such good value. Bader's power numbers have seen an uptick ever since he arrived in the Bronx. There are a lot of signs that point to the possibility of Bader going deep today. He had a huge home run against Baltimore a few nights ago and continues to crush the Orioles. His .919 OPS against the Orioles is the second-highest against any opponent in his career (minimum ten games played). He's also going up against Kyle Bradish. Bader only has six at-bats against Bradish, but he's 4 for 6 with two home runs against him. This is a big game for the Yankees, and I think he'll rise to the occasion.

All odds come from the Barstool Sportsbook. Follow Barstool Baseball on all platforms, including our YouTube page.